LightWhale Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 No schooling intended, you know more than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 No schooling intended, you know more than me Agree to disagree. I prefer it when someone rips my thinking apart. Does more to focus my mind. Also, finding overlooked weaknesses is a rule #1 corollary. Maintains principal long-term. Credit where it's due. Any long ideas you like right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted May 12, 2018 Author Share Posted May 12, 2018 We will see how successful Iliad will be. So far they have had delayed roll-outs & losses. They also are entering an already competitive market & will not be able to leverage fixed-line infrastructure like they have been able to do in France. Even today in France, guys like Brookfield can lay fiber & make decent returns which tells you how much profit is still available in France. It will be interesting to see if Iliad can get a positive NPV given their network disadvantages and lower price points & fickle Italian consumers. These consumers may be a positive initially when gaining customers but it also effects Iliad's retention like all the other players. Another question is how long will they be able endure losses which impinges on their clearly more profitable French business and whether they can reach the scale to make it as a good as the business they have in France. They have had 4 competitors in the past but I believe they had deeper pockets than Iliad. Also, Iliad is projecting (as a goal) EBITDA breakeven at 10% penetration which implies they need greater than 10% to make positive NPV. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Any long ideas you like right now? I do like TITR, and bought some in February. I supposed x4 EBITDA would give enough room for negative surprises. Packer, would you mind sharing the principles of how you model Iliad's penetration - with all its uncertainties - on TI's value? We will see how successful Iliad will be From our perspective, isn't Iliad's entrance more significant than its future success? It's not a zero sum game. If Iliad fails to become NPV positive, will that necessarily be good for TI, or cause a price war? One company's failure can develop into everyone's failure. I'm wary of commoditised industry dynamics, where NPV can be negative after years of sunk costs, but only incremental costs count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted May 12, 2018 Author Share Posted May 12, 2018 As to Iliad's impact on TIs value, I think there are too many dynamics to come up with a reasonable estimate. IMO your estimate is probably what the market consensus is & is why TI is trading where it is. I just think this consensus could very well be mistaken give the number of possibilities here. One in particular is the spin-off of the network. TI shareholder's would probably hold a majority of such an entity & as in the Elliot presentation shows it would have a significant value. The question about a network spin-out would be if the network company given their favored position, can charge favorable rates. IMO as long as the Italian state has a stake, the pricing will be favorable. The biggest issue I see with Iliad is the large market share breakeven they have to achieve (10% to get to EBITDA breakeven), meanwhile in France they can lay cable & get 40%+ EBITDA margins. The rural subsidies in France provide Iliad another advantage they will not see in Italy. The incumbents in Italy (TI, VOD & VIP) have invested more & can compete on marginal cost vs. Iliad will have to compete on total cost until they get more infrastructure & with better opportunities in France, Italy is going to be a black hole for awhile. Also the incumbent's have deeper pockets and better ability to bundle that Iliad. Now this investment makes sense if you have a lower cost offering but given how much leased infrastructure (from other competitors), I cannot see how this can be the case. How long will Iliad keep bleeding? As to a price war, I would be more concerned about the incumbents as they have the resources to fight one & Italian rates are cheaper than France contrary to Iliad's contention which is dependent upon penetration rates in each country which they fail to mention in their presentation. I would agree with your view if investment opportunities in France were limited and this may happen some day in the future but is not the case today. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Thanks Packer, it’s informing to read. Iliad probably does not expect profits before 2022 or becoming NPV positive before 2025. They’re preparing for a marathon & I don’t see them quitting so fast. Considering your description of the margins and opps in France, why in your opinion they are prioritising Italy? Perhaps they foresee 1) substantial synergies between the two markets & keeping the Italian operations very lean, or 2) a growth of the general pie when G5 is here. But going beyond mobile, at the current saving share price the range of possibility does seem to be skewed to the positive. It should be interesting to watch the coming quarter unravel. Iliad’s pricing strategy will show itself. And the backstage discussions between Elliott and Genish will move to the front. So far, they have disagreed on TIM’s break-up, other than the Sparkle bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueIdeaLog Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Did anyone happen to save Elliott's last presentation? They've taken the website down and I can't find the PDF anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Here it is.tim_presentation_20180409-final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueIdeaLog Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 Quick updates: - Iliad will launch by June 21th, and Sisal approved it will sell Iliad's SIM - TIM responded with a € 10 monthly offer for the first 6 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paologorgo Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 Quick updates: - Iliad will launch by June 21th, and Sisal approved it will sell Iliad's SIM - TIM responded with a € 10 monthly offer for the first 6 months correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like Sisal will only take care of the "recharge" service, adding Iliad to a large number of operators it is offering this service for: https://www.sisalpay.it/servizi/ricariche/cellulari/iliad Iliad seems to be opening "points of presence" within malls to sell its SIMs to consumers: https://www.universofree.com/tag/negozi-iliad/ according to their customer service number (177), now active, SIMs will also be sold online. https://www.universofree.com/2018/05/16/servizio-clienti-177-iliad/ Looking forward to their launch... they seem to be endorsing a "no hidden costs" strategy - something Italian operators are very famous for. http://www.iliad.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Iliad unveils mobile package of €5.99 per month (not clear if only for the first 1m subs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 The question IMO is how long will Iliad tolerate losses in Italy when their franchise in France has topped out. They missed earnings last Q & now they are entering a market with losses for many years. Will they risk a greater decline in France to get an uncertain prize in Italy? Time will tell. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Has anyone thought about playing TI through VIVHY ? Vivendi seems to be safer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted June 1, 2018 Author Share Posted June 1, 2018 An interesting article on Iliad: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-31/xavier-niel-was-france-s-tech-darling-now-his-customers-are-leaving Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 How much of the Elliott plans can go south (pun? ::) ) if there is dysfunctional government in Italy? I am not talking full blown It-exit/euro crisis. Just barriers/non-approval to separation and stake sales. I guess regulator does not change with govt change, but they still might be affected by where the wind blows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 Biggest risk is that interest rates in Italy go north, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 Telecom Italia keen to discuss fiber-to-the-home tie-up with Open Fiber https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecomitalia-openfiber/telecom-italia-keen-to-discuss-fiber-to-the-home-tie-up-with-open-fiber-idUSKBN1JG1UD TI is worth a shot at this price! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 Telecom Italia keen to discuss fiber-to-the-home tie-up with Open Fiber https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecomitalia-openfiber/telecom-italia-keen-to-discuss-fiber-to-the-home-tie-up-with-open-fiber-idUSKBN1JG1UD TI is worth a shot at this price! Yep, nibbled a bit on Ti/A today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 There was a board meeting today. Hope to get some positive news soon on strategic plans ( RE: Elliott's recommendations ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 There was a board meeting today. Hope to get some positive news soon on strategic plans ( RE: Elliott's recommendations ) Market isn’t very impressed with the results from the board meeting apparently- shares are down 3%. This is Italy after all. I added a few more shares to my starter position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MarkS Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Earnings release. http://www.telecomitalia.com/tit/en/archivio/media/comunicati-stampa/telecom-italia/corporate/economico-finanziario/2018/TIM-H1-2018.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sundin Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Luigi Gubitosi named as new CEO. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-18/telecom-italia-names-luigi-gubitosi-chief-executive-officer-jona8y54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 A question for the telco savvy investors - So Genish was apparently ousted for resisting the grid spinoff. But isn't fiber ownership critical for TIM to have an edge around 5G? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Press release from last week with preliminary 2018 results: https://www.telecomitalia.com/tit/en/archivio/media/comunicati-stampa/telecom-italia/corporate/economico-finanziario/2019/PR-TIM-170119.html My Back-of-the-envelope EV/EBITDA calculation is ~4.25, which looks OK-ish for a big telecom. Savings shares are trading at a ~12% discount to the ordinary shares, and yield ~7% at current price. An investor could probably do alot worse than to buy savings shares and HODL until Elliott and Vivendi stop bickering and/or operating results improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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