siddharth18 Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 A $33 million "cigar-butt" selling at a 20% discount to conservatively calculated liquidation value with much upside possibilities. Main thesis outlined at http://heresyvalue.blogspot.com/2013/05/cheap-cheap-cheap-automodular-tseam.html (the comments for that post aren't visible in Google Chrome, only in Firefox for me). -Many catalysts of horizon. -Good management with past record of being shareholder friendly. -Around 35k shares change hands every day so one can easily build a 4 figure, or 5 figure position easily. More at: http://itwillfluctuate.wordpress.com/2013/06/05/automodular-is-cheap/ http://itwillfluctuate.wordpress.com/2013/06/21/automodular-liquidation-calculation/ http://safetyinvalue.blogspot.ca/2013/05/automodular-update-tsxam-1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I remember looking at this company at 0.45$ per share in 2009 :'( It's an ok company in a commodity market. At this price it's relatively cheap. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted August 5, 2013 Author Share Posted August 5, 2013 I remember looking at this company at 0.45$ per share in 2009 :'( It's an ok company in a commodity market. At this price it's relatively cheap. BeerBaron Last year it was selling below its liquidation value too, when the aforementioned blogger (HeresyValue) got in. Yes it's a "mediocre" company selling for a decent price. I am not a fan of holding mediocre companies for the long term (don't they get hardest during market downturn?), but in this case I see a clear catalyst for unlocking value. Thanks for commenting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresyValue Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I feel it's only appropriate my first post be in this thread ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham Hockers Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Is anyone still watching this? Would be interested in how other people view the risk of the runoff Ford earnings being blown on dumb new businesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I've looked at this when it was trading at $1.60 From my convo with the management team, there is no place for this company going forward. The 2009 US auto industry restructuring has put US labor cost inline with Canadian labor cost. Hence, there isn't an arbitrage play in the labor price anymore which is why this company exist. I tried to handicap the company's chance of a complete liquidation once the contract runs out. Management had expressed that "they would considered it a failure if they let the company completely liquidate." That to me states that they're going to look to buy into another business which I think will be at fair value. I was not a buyer at $1.60, I'm not a buyer here either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted October 17, 2013 Author Share Posted October 17, 2013 From my convo with the management team, there is no place for this company going forward. The 2009 US auto industry restructuring has put US labor cost inline with Canadian labor cost. Hence, there isn't an arbitrage play in the labor price anymore which is why this company exist. I tried to handicap the company's chance of a complete liquidation once the contract runs out. Management had expressed that "they would considered it a failure if they let the company completely liquidate." That to me states that they're going to look to buy into another business which I think will be at fair value. It's true that, as of yet, the company doesn't have anything to do after late 2014. But at this price you're not paying for it. The Ford contract ends at 06/2014, but Ford has asked for an extension until Q4 2014. With cyclical tailwinds in the Auto sector that Ford is benefiting from - it might not be surprising if we see higher revenues at Automodular. I don't think the track record of capital allocation here is terrible. They've bought back shares starting at prices ranging from $1.48 until $1.99. The incentives are reasonably aligned with insiders owning ~30% of the shares outstanding, and, for what it's worth, has said "We will not rush into doing a transaction just for the sake of completing a transaction." One positive of aspect of another business is that they will be able to utilize their NOLs. Also, I think the value of the pending lawsuit against GM isn't priced in. They are suing for losses they suffered as a direct result of GM dumping them mid-contract without a breach. The full amount they are suing for is $25M, so about $1.3 per share. Even a fraction of that would be material. I do agree that this isn't as attractive as it once was, but I can't come up with a downside scenario here so I'm hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham Hockers Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Thanks for the reponses siddharth & bg2008. Any idea why they view a dividend as more attractive than buying back more shares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted October 17, 2013 Author Share Posted October 17, 2013 Thanks for the reponses siddharth & bg2008. Any idea why they view a dividend as more attractive than buying back more shares? They haven't explicitly stated that one is attractive than the other, although through their actions they seem to imply that neither are unattractive ;) Also, I believe there's a statutory limit to the number of shares they can buy back (through the Normal-Course Issuer Bid) and the relative illiquidity may make it a bit tricky to acquire shares hand over fist. So at this point, the best we can do is speculate. My guess about why they don't want to cut dividend is that they don't want to spook the existing investor base as cutting the dividend is a sign of distress. But given how much negativity this company has experienced (as implied by their per share price) and the eventual recovery, it may not mean much and I wish they cut dividend in favor of more buybacks. Of course, the the next question that comes to mind is - will the dividend be cut after 2014? The answer is we don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresyValue Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 I've looked at this when it was trading at $1.60 From my convo with the management team, there is no place for this company going forward. The 2009 US auto industry restructuring has put US labor cost inline with Canadian labor cost. Hence, there isn't an arbitrage play in the labor price anymore which is why this company exist. I tried to handicap the company's chance of a complete liquidation once the contract runs out. Management had expressed that "they would considered it a failure if they let the company completely liquidate." That to me states that they're going to look to buy into another business which I think will be at fair value. I was not a buyer at $1.60, I'm not a buyer here either Well, with even cursory DD able to conclude on a minimum liquidation value more than 20% above recent market prices combined with the fact that management has proven themselves to be diligent stewards of capital (I would know, I am one of the company's top shareholders) it seems that perhaps you should have been a buyer at $1.60. But hey, it's your money (and more shares for the rest of us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham Hockers Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 They haven't explicitly stated that one is attractive than the other, although through their actions they seem to imply that neither are unattractive ;) Nope, but their actions certainly imply they like the dividend much more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 Found http://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2013/06/06/automodular-a-liquidation-play/ Found some illuminating points: PP&E: the net carrying value of the equipment is $8.8 million, which is only a fraction of the gross carrying value of $37.7 million. This is due to very aggressive depreciation using the diminishing balance method so the real disposal value is likely materially higher than the net carrying value. Ford will most likely buy back the equipment in its in-sourcing process so it’s not crazy to assume that at least 20% of the net carrying value can be realized under a liquidation scenario. AM has $8.2 million in NOL assets that it carries till late 2020s. Note that AM is a Canadian company and NOLs can still be used in change-of-control situations in Canada. I had a meeting with him last year and found him to be quite candid about the challenges the company was facing. Nutt is an accountant and has a strong financial background, which gives us some comfort with regard to new project acquisitions. The CEO had M&A experience while working as an accounting partner before he joined AM so he probably has a decent idea what to look for in case they can’t find a new business contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Being a veteran of many corporate liquidations, I can paraphrase Buffet in his Partnership letters that "liquidations always takes longer and the distributions are always less than you expected." Another wise man once said that in a liquidation "Assets are fleeting and liabilities are like passing kidney stones." With that said, I think many on this board are underestimating a few key factors. 1. Liquidations are great when there's a definitive spread AND there is a definitive timeline to return cash - This creates a market agnostic return with attractive IRR. However, in this case, Nutt and management team has clear incentive and have even made the "failure comment" regarding a complete liquidation. An investor is buying into blank check company not a short duration bond instrument as a traditional liquidation story. If you want to speculate on Nutt and management's intention at contract expiration, call the guy and have a conversation. 2. The GM litigation is a call option of some sort. I have no idea what will be paid out, if any. It's one of my upside cases, but I can't handicap it. 3. Relative to other terminal business, Nutt has done a good job allocating capital. During my call with him, I acknowledged that multiple times. But his unwillingness to liquidate (equity to comp ratio and future employment prospect) is the main reason why I have passed on the name. 4. Misconception on liquidation cost - The $6mm liquidation cost is to terminate the factory not the holding company. In short, by Dec 2014, there will still be core group of executives getting paid $3-4mm a year and listing cost etc to try to seek alternative contracts and looking at acquisitions. If they finally do decide to liquidate, you're looking at 2016 and another $6-8mm cash burn later. This is not inclusive of any retainers/fees they may pay an investment bank. Also, executive severances will run us $2-4mm. From my experience, shareholders (not tooth fairies) pay the executive severance. I can't recall how many times my blood vessel almost pops when I see how much execs get in the a liquidation. 5. I had asked Nutt if there are any salvage value for the PP&E. If I recall correctly, he mentioned that there are none. If anyone speaks to him again, please verify this point. There are $8mm of value assigned to this when there maybe none. 6. In a worst case scenario, it took the company 1-2 years after Dec 2014 to buy a company. Tack on some 2-10% acquisition cost for something of this size. You wind up being stuck in a blank check company for 3 years and then wind up buying another mediocre company at a 7-10x EBITDA multiple. 7. I acknowledge there maybe upside in the name from the GM litigation. As far as I'm concerned, it's "too hard" for me. If anyone has any insight, please share. Look forward to feed backs from others Quote from: BG2008 on October 17, 2013, 07:40:03 AM I've looked at this when it was trading at $1.60 From my convo with the management team, there is no place for this company going forward. The 2009 US auto industry restructuring has put US labor cost inline with Canadian labor cost. Hence, there isn't an arbitrage play in the labor price anymore which is why this company exist. I tried to handicap the company's chance of a complete liquidation once the contract runs out. Management had expressed that "they would considered it a failure if they let the company completely liquidate." That to me states that they're going to look to buy into another business which I think will be at fair value. I was not a buyer at $1.60, I'm not a buyer here either Well, with even cursory DD able to conclude on a minimum liquidation value more than 20% above recent market prices combined with the fact that management has proven themselves to be diligent stewards of capital (I would know, I am one of the company's top shareholders) it seems that perhaps you should have been a buyer at $1.60. But hey, it's your money (and more shares for the rest of us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 AJAX, ONTARIO -- (Marketwired) -- 10/21/13 -- Automodular Corporation (TSX:AM) ("Automodular" or "the Company") reports that it has signed an extension agreement with Ford Motor Company of Canada, Limited ("Ford") that would have the Company continue to provide sub-assembly and sequencing services for its existing commodities until December 23, 2014 on commercial terms similar to those in its current agreement with Ford. As part of the agreement, Ford has provided certain production and price related assurances and will fund Automodular's incremental closure costs related to this extension. Following the expiry of the commercial extension, Automodular expects to close its two remaining automotive operating facilities located in Oakville, Ontario. Automodular continues to search for opportunities in both the wind renewable sector and others to leverage its core manufacturing and project management skills. In conjunction with the Ford commercial extension, Automodular reports that it has reached agreement on a one-year labour extension agreement for its Oakville-area workers with Unifor (formerly the CAW). The existing labour agreement was set to expire on June 30, 2014. The extension provides for a signing bonus and improvements in severance entitlements. Automodular Corporation is a supplier of sub-assembly, sequencing and transportation services to the automotive industry - Ford Motor Company's Oakville Assembly Plant. The Company has two operating facilities and employs approximately 525 people. This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements are market and general economic conditions and the risk factors detailed from time to time in the Company's periodic reports filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Readers are cautioned not to rely on forward-looking statements. Except as required under continuous disclosure obligations, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Automodular does not provide financial outlooks. Contacts: Automodular Corporation Christopher S. Nutt President and CEO (905) 619-4202 invest@automodular.com SOURCE: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/automodular-corporation-ford-contract-update-2013-10-21-91731323?reflink=MW_news_stmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Addition to the board of directors: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/automodular-corporation-addition-to-board-of-directors-2013-11-26-10173813 AJAX, ONTARIO, Nov 26, 2013 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- Automodular Corporation ("Automodular") CA:AM +0.47% announces the addition of Parsa Kiai to its Board of Directors. Mr. Kiai resides in New York, USA and is the Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager of Steamboat Capital, LLC ("Steamboat"). Automodular was approached earlier this year by Mr. Kiai and Bo Shan of California, USA, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Gobi Capital, LLC ("Gobi"). On a combined basis, Steamboat and Gobi hold 1,345,800 shares, representing approximately 6.9% of the outstanding common shares of Automodular. In connection with Mr. Kiai joining the board, he and Mr. Shan as well as Steamboat and Gobi have entered into customary standstill arrangements expiring on the close of the Company's 2015 annual meeting unless earlier terminated, including in the event that Mr. Kiai resigns from the board. Mr. Kiai brings to the Board considerable US investment experience and contacts. Automodular Corporation is a supplier of sub-assembly, sequencing and transportation services to the automotive industry - Ford Motor Company's Oakville Assembly Plant. The Company has two operating facilities and employs approximately 525 people. ---------- This is the same Bo Shan worked at Scion Capital, under Mike Burry and later was recommended by Dr. Burry on his (now defunct) website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 This is the same Bo Shan worked at Scion Capital, under Mike Burry and later was recommended by Dr. Burry on his (no defunct) website. Interesting. I wonder what he has in store for AM. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Interesting. I wonder what he has in store for AM. Thanks for posting. To some extent, it reinforces the belief that the management will be kept from chasing poor IRR projects or paying themselves fat salaries in the absence of a profit-generating business. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bskptkl Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 some volume lately on a long term holding of mine; old news below: AUTOMODULAR ANNOUNCES TRIAL DATES PICKERING, ON, March 28, 2017: Automodular Corporation (“Automodular”) (TSXV: AM.H) announces that the Honourable Justice G. Hainey of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice (Commercial List) has set the following dates in respect of Automodular’s ongoing litigation against General Motors Company and General Motors of Canada Ltd. (collectively, “GM”) (the “Claim”): (1) a 14-day trial starting on February 20, 2018; and, (2) a half day pre-trial conference on October 26, 2017. See the full press release on the automodular website. Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.am/automodular-corporation#KtRrXMlGtrej4bqj.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bskptkl Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 some volume lately on a long term holding of mine; old news below: AUTOMODULAR ANNOUNCES TRIAL DATES PICKERING, ON, March 28, 2017: Automodular Corporation (“Automodular”) (TSXV: AM.H) announces that the Honourable Justice G. Hainey of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice (Commercial List) has set the following dates in respect of Automodular’s ongoing litigation against General Motors Company and General Motors of Canada Ltd. (collectively, “GM”) (the “Claim”): (1) a 14-day trial starting on February 20, 2018; and, (2) a half day pre-trial conference on October 26, 2017. See the full press release on the automodular website. Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.am/automodular-corporation#KtRrXMlGtrej4bqj.99 I just noticed the pre trial conference was changed to Nov 24. Trial date remains same. Has $2.53 a share mostly cash, trades $2.40ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 How are you valuing this? I'm curious as to why you held through thick and mostly thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bskptkl Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 I like the GM option, which I am not paying for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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