JOE - ST. JOE CO

[thepupil]

it's JOE TIME!

 

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/10/05/its-joetime/

 

in response to the article, i've availed myself of a rank and highly speculative and low conviction position in JOE March 2021 calls ( i sold 1 $25 put to buy 3 $30 calls for about no premium; will force me to own a small position if she falls, will allow me to particiate decently if she gets squeezed)

 

in other news, holy shit did the above post liking HHC versus JOE not age well... a solid 65% spread in JOE's favor.

[Gregmal]

I don't really think you were wrong on your HHC vs JOE take at the fundamental level(despite being one who favors JOE over HHC), but I think not having much/any debt is often an immensely valuable position to be in, that often gets overlooked because with most RE it is kind of a foregone conclusion that you're suppose to use debt. Especially if you are doing any development, and especially post covid.

[thepupil]

it's JOE TIME!

 

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/10/05/its-joetime/

 

in response to the article, i've availed myself of a rank and highly speculative and low conviction position in JOE March 2021 calls ( i sold 1 $25 put to buy 3 $30 calls for about no premium; will force me to own a small position if she falls, will allow me to particiate decently if she gets squeezed)

 

in other news, holy shit did the above post liking HHC versus JOE not age well... a solid 65% spread in JOE's favor.

 

covered the puts, sold the $30's, rolled into 2x the $35's. disgusting price based speculation of the foulest order. originally risked ~100 bps, now if went to zero will lose ~35 bps , but at $35 JOE becomes an ~10% position.

 

this is a heavily shorted low float sun belt real estate play undergoing positive fundamental tailwinds. i think this could get nutty.

[Cardboard]

Hi ThePupil,

 

Great week for you with RE stocks! Happy for your success.

 

Do you have short interest on St-Joe?

 

Thanks

[thepupil]

http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=joe&submit=Short+Quote%E2%84%A2

 

6mm shares are short. about 10% of total shares. this is down from a peak of 7.7mm to start the year. JOE trades 250K-500K shares / day.

 

Fairholme/Bruce own about 30mm of the shares.

 

thank you. it's been a very nice couple of days...but all i have to do is look at the YTD to avoid getting a big head.

[Cardboard]

This could turn into a DDS in a hurry!

 

Up 10-20% tomorrow? Lol!

 

Cardboard

[BG2008]

This could turn into a DDS in a hurry!

 

Up 10-20% tomorrow? Lol!

 

Cardboard

 

Everyone is making money on Joe and I am missing out on the action :(

[Guest cherzeca]

This could turn into a DDS in a hurry!

 

Up 10-20% tomorrow? Lol!

 

Cardboard

 

Everyone is making money on Joe and I am missing out on the action :(

 

longish runway.  patience has been the key, both in past and going forward as well

[Cardboard]

Futures indicate a big up day for markets.

 

20%+ short float with low volume in RE which is rebounding bigly right now. Smells like something is frying, no?

 

Cardboard

[Saluki]

I foolishly sold about half my position during the Covid downturn.  I (correctly) predicted that florida would be it's usual sh**show with handling the crisis, which it was.  I didn't anticipate that people fleeing cities would actually help JOE out.  I sold between 19 and 16 over several days and invested in other things which looked cheap but got even cheaper.  I've been buying this back from $19 to the high $20s and kicking myself everytime I hit the buy button.

 

I've been holding and adding to this for a couple of years, I should've just sat on my hands and did nothing instead of trying to time it.

[BG2008]

I foolishly sold about half my position during the Covid downturn.  I (correctly) predicted that florida would be it's usual sh**show with handling the crisis, which it was.  I didn't anticipate that people fleeing cities would actually help JOE out.  I sold between 19 and 16 over several days and invested in other things which looked cheap but got even cheaper.  I've been buying this back from $19 to the high $20s and kicking myself everytime I hit the buy button.

 

I've been holding and adding to this for a couple of years, I should've just sat on my hands and did nothing instead of trying to time it.

 

Got it, I'll do the opposite of your trades.  :)

[Cardboard]

Looks to me like mid $30's is an easy target in short term.

 

Cardboard

[Cardboard]

Looking really strong.

 

They should think of taking this private before it heads too high.

 

Cardboard

[thepupil]

it's JOE TIME!

 

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/10/05/its-joetime/

 

in response to the article, i've availed myself of a rank and highly speculative and low conviction position in JOE March 2021 calls ( i sold 1 $25 put to buy 3 $30 calls for about no premium; will force me to own a small position if she falls, will allow me to particiate decently if she gets squeezed)

 

in other news, holy shit did the above post liking HHC versus JOE not age well... a solid 65% spread in JOE's favor.

 

covered the puts, sold the $30's, rolled into 2x the $35's. disgusting price based speculation of the foulest order. originally risked ~100 bps, now if went to zero will lose ~35 bps , but at $35 JOE becomes an ~10% position.

 

this is a heavily shorted low float sun belt real estate play undergoing positive fundamental tailwinds. i think this could get nutty.

 

sold the $35's to buy 2x the $40's, have realized about 60 bps to the portfolio of profit. Have a 50 bp position in the $40 calls that creates a 19% position in JOE at $40 on a notional basis (4% on a delta basis at current price).

 

being a greedy pig for a big squeeze here.

 

probably won't happen and will make this speculation a pointless and distracting exercise.

[Gregmal]

I will ask now, cuz I know we've got a bunch of RE junkies here, myself included. Have we reached the point where anyone's buying Alico yet? LOL

[thepupil]

it's JOE TIME!

 

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/10/05/its-joetime/

 

in response to the article, i've availed myself of a rank and highly speculative and low conviction position in JOE March 2021 calls ( i sold 1 $25 put to buy 3 $30 calls for about no premium; will force me to own a small position if she falls, will allow me to particiate decently if she gets squeezed)

 

in other news, holy shit did the above post liking HHC versus JOE not age well... a solid 65% spread in JOE's favor.

 

covered the puts, sold the $30's, rolled into 2x the $35's. disgusting price based speculation of the foulest order. originally risked ~100 bps, now if went to zero will lose ~35 bps , but at $35 JOE becomes an ~10% position.

 

this is a heavily shorted low float sun belt real estate play undergoing positive fundamental tailwinds. i think this could get nutty.

 

sold the $35's to buy 2x the $40's, have realized about 60 bps to the portfolio of profit. Have a 50 bp position in the $40 calls that creates a 19% position in JOE at $40 on a notional basis (4% on a delta basis at current price).

 

being a greedy pig for a big squeeze here.

 

probably won't happen and will make this speculation a pointless and distracting exercise.

 

sold the $40's to buy 2x the $45's.

 

this is probably the actual squeeze and all the upside is probably gone, but I'm being a greedy YOLO idiot. have about 8% delta exposure via 100 bps in the calls, having realized about 100 bps of profits. JOE goes nuts, will have created a ~40% notional position at $45.

 

JOE doesn't go nuts, I can use house money fallacy and say i didn't lose any money.

 

kuppy says it's a triple digit stock lol

 

good times.

 

 

 

 

[thepupil]

last JOE spam of the day as this board is for investment analysis, rather than journaling speculation, but $7.5mm block at $39 after hours.

 

I don't know enough about how markets work to explain that. my confirmation bias says its someone getting bought in, but the short squeeze thesis is actually contradicted by the fact that there appear to be plenty of shares available to borroe and it's not expensive to short. maybe someone just really wanted some  JOE after all this hard hitting commentary.

 

EDIT: actually it’s looking. Like 2mm+ shares traded today AH, something big happening

 

 

 

St Joe 192,979 Share Block Trades at $39

By Bloomberg Automation

(Bloomberg) -- A block of 192,979 shares in St Joe Co., equivalent to 0.6% of float, traded at a market value of $7.53 million at 4:18 p.m. New York time.

The price was $39 per share, a premium of 6% from the open; St Joe rose 3.3% today and is up 90% this year

The block represents 60% of the 20-day average volume

Total trading reached 697,396 shares, compared with the 20-day average of 321,834 for this time of day; Bloomberg model estimates volume will reach 697,396 by end of day

Goldman Sachs, Virtu Financial and UBS Investment Bank were the most active brokers in St Joe from Nov. 14 to Dec. 13, based on trade data they reported to Bloomberg

[Williams406]

https://clubsbyjoe.com/Membership/The_Clubs_by_JOE_Experience_Magazine.aspx

 

Scroll down and select the top issue. Starting on page 32 is an article on the Margaritaville development. Yes it's a marketing piece, as is the entire magazine. That project is getting ready to launch and with success, I think it is the big piece that drives JOE. It's municipal level scale, and JOE owns a large % of the land between Margaritaville and Panama City Beach. All of that becomes much more valuable with 10k, 20k population added. Minto seems very high quality from my experience at the Daytona project. Margaritaville brand seems to work. I think this project does incredibly well. Call me a disciplined idiot for holding out for mid-teens stock price.

[thepupil]

this is starting to get uncomfortable...holding a profitable speculation as it rises (to a whopping 250 bps) is not easy.

 

Perhaps CryptJOEcoin is just getting started. the supply of land in Walton and Bay county is fixed and demand is increasing  ;D

 

I think a weird weakness of the JOE thesis is that Fairholme has a 45% position in it as of July and that's probably going up as it does really well. I think he has to sell if it goes above 50% because RIC/40 act mutual funds must maintain a certain % in "diversified assets" (cash or stock positions <5%). He may be forced to trim?

 

to prevent this, everyone should start pouring money into FAIRX. Make FAIRX the GBTC of CryptJOE!

 

 

[adesigar]

Why would Berkowitz need to sell? Aren’t all Fairholme funds non-diversified?

[thepupil]

Yea I’m probably wrong. I read somewhere that mutual funds needed to maintain certain diversification (of course I can’t find it now). I thought 50% had to be in cash and <5% positions but FAIRX wouldn’t be in compliance as of last report so I’m probably wrong.

 

The interplay betweeen JOE and FAIRX is fascinating to me. What’s the end game? Conversion to a closed end fund? Distribution of JOE to FAIRX holders.

 

Bruce and affiliates only own 24% of FAIRX so there are still people with him after all these years. If JOE keeps surging (which it probably won’t, I think JOE is doing well fundamentally, but not as well as the stock px), then FAIRX will start to have very good recent returns; would people invest in is fund, which is a derivative of JOE and Fannie Mae prefs?

[CorpRaider]

I thought that was where he was going, but then whenever I see him buying something else (like BAC)...it's like ok....guess not.

[thepupil]

JOE continues its habit of going up 3% / day.

 

I've de-risked. At March Expiry, my speculation in JOE will look like this, having never really risked too much. 

 

<45, +180 bps

50  , +430 bps

60  , +680 bps

 

I've tried to find a balance between being a greedy pig and not gambling away more money than I'd like just because it's been a good trade. I'm a value guy, so I've probably erred on the side of curtailing the upside, but whatever. If the uber bulls are right and those goes wild, then I'll make enough to buy a lot at Rivercamps or Watersounds Origins.

 

If the CryptJOE bubble pops, so be it. I'll enjoy following the company as I have since I bought the Third Avenue Real Estate Fund in high school, which owned this pup from early 90's all the way to the bubble burst.

 

Also, just for the memories, some vintage Einhorn:

https://www.10xebitda.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Greenlight-St.-Joe-Presentation-Oct-2010.pdf

[Gregmal]

LOL Poor David. Greenlight should be called Mom and Dad Capital Management. Never held a real job in his life and was funded by family. Even Allied which was his big(other than Lehman) call, was likely a terrible investment from a time and IRR respective. Probably a good part of the reason why he has such trouble adapting and accepting when he is wrong.

 

 

[thepupil]

LOL Poor David. Greenlight should be called Mom and Dad Capital Management. Never held a real job in his life and was funded by family. Even Allied which was his big(other than Lehman) call, was likely a terrible investment from a time and IRR respective. Probably a good part of the reason why he has such trouble adapting and accepting when he is wrong.

 

JOE's been a good short (don't know borrow), but since his October 2010 presentation, JOE is up 5.4% / year and that's inclusive of the 2020 spike from $16 to $43, there've been numerous opportunities for Einhorn to cover at very nice alpha generative prices. again, I don't know borrow costs, where einhorn sold/covered, but it's very likely to have been a good long term short. it's underperformed SPX by 900 bps/year  since that presentation (prior to this year underperformance was 1600 bps / year).

 

Einhorn has sucked for other reasons than JOE. my hope is that more people are shorting JOE now. as short interest has declined from 7.6mm-->4.2mm. need to re-load the gas tank with some shorts. <--this is me going full robinhood.