plato1976 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Just wonder if folks here paid att to russian corps ... I know some see them as forbidden investment .. sberbank seems a significant finance provider in russia and its valuation is really low. 90% tangible book, 5.7 times earning. roe is 18% Seems russian shares will trade at such depressive levels forever ? If they are really shareholder friendly they should aggressively buy back and then in a few years try to give out fat div ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 I can't speak about Russian bank stocks, but it's not as if Russian oil stocks haven't traded significantly higher than where they are now. Lukoil traded 80+% higher in 2008. Gazprom traded 5x its current price in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberhound Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Putin gave a speech opposing bail-in. with 30T deposits in US and EU some of that will end up in Russia if only to spread out the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Qu1nt3ss0n Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 The following commentary is taken from the Kerrisdale Capital letter for Q3 2013. http://www.beyondproxy.com/sberbank/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indythinker85 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 The following commentary is taken from the Kerrisdale Capital letter for Q3 2013. http://www.beyondproxy.com/sberbank/ Thank you. I thought I was the only crazy one looking at Russia. Sberbank seems interesting and I saw the Kerrisdale write up. I am looking to buy a basket of Russian equities and sell the ETF. Anyone have names to research besides Lukoil and Gazprom its almost like no other companies exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Two other Russian names are CTC Media (Russian TV) and Tatneft (Russian Oil & Gas and Tires). Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Packer, are you willing to take the country risk to wade into russian picks ? :) I am so hesitant ...... Two other Russian names are CTC Media (Russian TV) and Tatneft (Russian Oil & Gas and Tires). Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Qu1nt3ss0n Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Just wonder if folks here paid att to russian corps ... I know some see them as forbidden investment .. sberbank seems a significant finance provider in russia and its valuation is really low. 90% tangible book, 5.7 times earning. roe is 18% Seems russian shares will trade at such depressive levels forever ? If they are really shareholder friendly they should aggressively buy back and then in a few years try to give out fat div ... The valuation is compelling, though the country risk would probably not allow me to make this a significant position (max 2-3%). This has been my typical approach with other emerging market investments. I dont perceive russia as riskier than china or india or indonesia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 in fact, in the short run the risk is more related with the oil price ... but sberbank really has good reserve and huge margin Just wonder if folks here paid att to russian corps ... I know some see them as forbidden investment .. sberbank seems a significant finance provider in russia and its valuation is really low. 90% tangible book, 5.7 times earning. roe is 18% Seems russian shares will trade at such depressive levels forever ? If they are really shareholder friendly they should aggressively buy back and then in a few years try to give out fat div ... The valuation is compelling, though the country risk would probably not allow me to make this a significant position (max 2-3%). This has been my typical approach with other emerging market investments. I dont perceive russia as riskier than china or india or indonesia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I have not invested in Russia yet but I am contemplating investment in more shareholder friendly firms such as Lukoil. Some like Gazprom and Rosneft are state controlled so they do not do the most economic things. Others like Surgneftgas are run by former bosses who think the company is their private kingdom (much like the state controlled firms). Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smiroshn Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 On Russia broadly, the Oils are super cheap - (e.g. 3-4X p/e) Luk, Rosneft, Tatneft, GAzpromneft - all worth looking at. Oil field services are a levered play on theses (Eurasia Drilling, Integra). Another interesting area is around metal and mining - TMK, Norilsk, Mechel A safer play is Yandex - the Russian google, trades on NYSE and has done really well. Vimpelcom On the banks, Sber and VTB are both effectively GSEs, so there's safety, but with meaningful value still to be found in the US financials, don't believe these are worth the trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Qu1nt3ss0n Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Platinum Asset Management (Australia's prominent value investors) latest quarterly letter: https://www.platinum.com.au/Documents/Funds/All_PT_Funds/Quarterly_Reports/ptqtr_0913.pdf Have a read through pages 18-19 on Sberbank and some thoughts on Russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Herman Gref, CEO of Sberbank on CNBC http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000218657 http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000218662 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yitech Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Herman Gref, CEO of Sberbank on CNBC http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000218657 http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000218662 Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 New writeup on VIC http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/107293 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 New writeup on VIC http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/107293 Thanks. Interesting comment: …Sberbank is up 100% since 2006. It's up 10x in the past 10 years, and 100x since 2001. Here's TBV/share in those years: 2001: 5 rubles / share 2003: 7 rubles / share 2006: 16 rubles / share Today: 75 rubles / share We can talk about Putin, Hermitage, oligarchs, and political assassinations all day long. But ultimately, the most important part of the story is what TBV / share is in 1, 3 and 10 years, and Sberbank will trade at either 0.7x TBV, 1.5x TBV or 3.0x TBV. You're either going to make decent money or a lot of money. It's a bank, so if there's a financial crisis in Russia, the bank can go to zero. But in most 10-year periods, there aren't serious financial crises in countries with massive amounts of foreign reserves. And even if there is a financial crisis, that doesn't mean that Sberbank will actually become insolvent. The overwhelming probability is that Sberbank does quite well for the foreseeable future. Many investors looked at Sberbank in 2001 and decided not to invest because it's in Russia. Then the stock went up 100x in the subsequent 10 years. The story is similar with banks in Indonesia, China, Brazil, Poland and many countries where kleptocracy is the norm. Ultimately there are going to be bribes, theft and all sorts of tomfoolery, but big national banks are going to take deposits and lend them out, earn a healthy spread, and grow like a weed year after year. The biggest reason I'm hesitant about investing in Russia is that their economy has had a great 10-year run. The future looks uncertain, but there's no blood on the streets yet. Maybe the market sees something and that's why Russia is cheap? Maybe there won't be any crash because Russia is a more developed economy than 10 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 i bought a stake in sberbank. after the recent Price drop. i will hold it for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Sberbank Drops After MSCI Considers Removing Stock http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/sberbank-drops-after-msci-considers-removing-stock.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenith Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 getting very cheap ;) and if they ever lift sanctions this will due quite nicely, but Armageddon is more than priced in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I'm a little surprised no one referred to the sanctions and threat of sanctions? Or does that fall under country risk? Just genuinely curious. It has died down a little since IS captured the fancy of the media here (Netherlands) but before IS it was all about Russia cutting off its gas exports and the consequences of that. It sounded to me like fear mongering to capture viewers because I'm not sure Russia can afford to cut its gas exports very much. Anyway, I would consider the possibility and consequences before shopping there. Just noticed sanctions were mentioned already, oops ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 https://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/245484224?access_key=key-Qd1iAuBcX92lzw9iC8yE&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll Firebird Management: Sberbank Investment Case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks to me like there is a huge price difference of ~10% between the shares in Moscow and the ADR ... on MCX 75.05 rubles/share ADR (=4 shares) @ ~ 7 USD If you buy 4 shares in MCX and use the current exchange rate of 46.5, you get the same shares for about USD 6.45 Am I missing something? What do you guys think? TIA Andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
60North Investments Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks to me like there is a huge price difference of ~10% between the shares in Moscow and the ADR ... on MCX 75.05 rubles/share ADR (=4 shares) @ ~ 7 USD If you buy 4 shares in MCX and use the current exchange rate of 46.5, you get the same shares for about USD 6.45 Am I missing something? What do you guys think? TIA Andy That's exactly the case, no idea really why is that the case though. The difference has been for at least months now between 4-8%, so that the price is cheaper in Moscow than in Xetra or the US ADR. What I've been wondering is why on earth is there consistently such a difference in Sberbank when there isn't really any meaningful difference in for example Lukoil? Not sure how to arbitrage the difference away though when it looks quite difficult to short the stock in Xetra or the ADRs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I assume a large part of the difference is the currency risk. With Lukoil, they get petrodollars, so they have a natural hedge. The ruble is down almost 20% in the last month versus the USD. The Russian Central Bank increased rates 1.5%, and the markets treated it as nothing more than a minor speed bump. I know that many Russians think the exchange rate will be more than 50 RUB/USD, and if previously they thought it would happen by the end of the year, now they are saying it will happen before November is out ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I assume a large part of the difference is the currency risk. With Lukoil, they get petrodollars, so they have a natural hedge. The ruble is down almost 20% in the last month versus the USD. The Russian Central Bank increased rates 1.5%, and the markets treated it as nothing more than a minor speed bump. I know that many Russians think the exchange rate will be more than 50 RUB/USD, and if previously they thought it would happen by the end of the year, now they are saying it will happen before November is out ... You have a point, but the currency risk could be hedged away by the investor at a cost much less than that spread. So that is unlikely the cause of most of that gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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