yadayada Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They likely earn 10m$ in integrity work this year, without new projects. So for 40m$ you get a company likely trading at net cash next year or so. Not even counting their equipment. Also this seems to be the intelligence of shareholder base: No need to be buying back shares, just a waste of funds. With a slowing economy and only 30M shares out why even go there? Riding out this down cycle should be priority and when times are good a better allocation of extra funds may be to reward the loyal shareholders with a dividend. Cheers! What does the number of shares even ahve to do with it :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think he meant the best is to save up the cash. Will they start burning cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
igor Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Annual results: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/macro-enterprises-inc-announces-2014-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-results-2015-04-01-161735813 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxputs Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 CC tomorrow morning. I think the company is currently priced around a conservative liquidation value. If they lost half their revenue (no new projects) and just did recurring/integrity work, 8x EPS is about today's price. Their future revenue is uncertain but their balance sheet is pristine. Two customers making up the majority of their revenue seems like cause for concern--that bothers me. They are about 3x EBITDA right now. If they do 150m revenue in 2015 and get 5x on the EBITDA, seems like triple digit IRR to me. I have a 9% position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 CC tomorrow morning. I think the company is currently priced around a conservative liquidation value. If they lost half their revenue (no new projects) and just did recurring/integrity work, 8x EPS is about today's price. Their future revenue is uncertain but their balance sheet is pristine. Two customers making up the majority of their revenue seems like cause for concern--that bothers me. They are about 3x EBITDA right now. If they do 150m revenue in 2015 and get 5x on the EBITDA, seems like triple digit IRR to me. I have a 9% position. Did you add the preferred shares conversion in your valuation ？ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxputs Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 That's a roger. I'm using 34.8m shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 That's a roger. I'm using 34.8m shares. Do you account for proceeds on exercise? I've seen you and a couple other members calculate EV this way, it's elegantly simple and conservative, but it doesn't seem to take into account proceeds on exercise of options,preferred,etc which are tangible, known values so I'm hesitant on not using them. Do you factor those in somehow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxputs Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I simply added in all options and the convertible shares to arrive at a fully diluted number. How can I be more accurate? Add the proceeds from the average expected exercise prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwfm1985 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Anyone listen to the call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Well the way I do it is treat proceeds as if they were cash (which they will be upon exercise) and remove them from EV but only if they are ITM obviously. But i also only count the dilution if it is ITM. I guess the most accurate would be to fully dilute like you do and then remove ITM proceeds? Sorry to derail the thread, just looking to figure out the proper mechanic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Anyone listen to the call? I'm curious about this too. I couldn't listen. They have posted recordings of their previous conference calls, so I expect they'll do that this quarter too. Also they finally posted to their website, and it contains much more info than the press release previously posted. I haven't had a chance to read through it yet: http://www.macroindustries.ca/images/documents/financials/2014/Q4-2014-MDA.pdf http://www.macroindustries.ca/images/documents/financials/2014/Q4-2014-FS.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxputs Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I don't recall much newsworthy on the call. Guidance of 70-80m 1h15 with improving conditions 2h15. Likely won't have to sacrifice margins. Plans to reinvest proceeds into the biz to grow organically (no acquisitions coming). It was short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 no mention of buybacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
igor Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 no mention of buybacks? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm25 Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Stock is taking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Stock is taking off. Yeah I've noticed! I figured it was due to rising oil prices, but thought I'd look for news anyway. Didn't find any news, but notice they posted the conference call: http://www.macroindustries.ca/images/documents/webcasts/Macro-Entreprise-2014-Year-End-Results-MP3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 A good quarter, and national bank ranked them well in some kind of undervalued o&g list. I mean its still cheap, it was trading for net working capital for a while.... No clue why a growing, well operated business got so cheap... Issue 5% of common outstanding in options one time, share price declines 70%??????? This investment has been a lesson learned for me: Be patient and let the market make undeniable mistakes. When s$ stops making sense, its time to go in. At the price it got, there was no need to even try to value the company, it was clearly way too cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I looked at the 2013 Q4 and 2014 Q1 report to verify the red flags that Andy Dufresne pointed out. Not only is the account receivable getting much worse, but I also found that they income tax paid in income statement is 2.2 m while the income tax paid in cash flow statement is 11 m. Why is that? One possible explanation is that back in 2012 and the previous quarters of 2013, they window dressed their income statement and recognized less current income tax liability and shifted them into deferred income tax liability. Now in 2013 Q4 they had to pay the 11 M income tax, but still don't want investors to see that, so the continue to push that into the future, and only reported 2.2 m current income tax liability while they actually paid 11 M income tax. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Net tax assets went from -7.4m$ to +1.1m$. So about 8.5m$ difference. They paid roughly 20.4m$ in cash taxes in 2013 and 2014. Taxes on income statement are about 10m$ total. So it seems to roughly match up if you add 8.5m$ to 10.7m$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Net tax assets went from -7.4m$ to +1.1m$. So about 8.5m$ difference. They paid roughly 20.4m$ in cash taxes in 2013 and 2014. Taxes on income statement are about 10m$ total. So it seems to roughly match up if you add 8.5m$ to 10.7m$. I never said the deferred tax asset + tax paid on income statement doesn't add up with the cash tax actually paid to the government. If that's the case, the accountant should be fired. What concerned me is why the cash tax paid is so much higher than the tax paid reported on the income statement. Note that income reporting to the government tax department is much more strict than shareholder reporting, and it is a document that small shareholders have no access. But the difference of cash tax vs tax on income statement can give an idea on whether the management team is trying to use aggressive accounting to cook the number and show net income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxputs Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Voting needs to be done by May.21. Proposal 5 "to approve the continuation of the Company's Stock Option Plan". Should stock options be on the table given the large miss on the previous Fort Mac project and the subsequent hit to earnings? Also, it appears to me management's compensation is more than adequate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 While I won't argue that management compensation is low, I don't think looking at just 2014 is really fair. Compensation is always going to look relatively high during downturns, but in my opinion compensation was very reasonable in 2013 and 2012 (and again it looked high in 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 First quarter results worse than expected and sounds like full year 2015 may be lower than their previous guidance. Also got a new credit facility for $115M, will be interesting to hear on the call tomorrow if they say what it's for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
60North Investments Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 First quarter results worse than expected and sounds like full year 2015 may be lower than their previous guidance. Also got a new credit facility for $115M, will be interesting to hear on the call tomorrow if they say what it's for. Anyone listened to the call, or got a link to a webcast? Would be interesting to hear if there was anything of any significance in there. The new debt facility looks large (if they use it all), $115m for a $80m market cap company. Disappointing results for Q1 and as Travis said, this year will be lower than guided and probably not very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
igor Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 My connection got interrupted in the middle of Q&A, but I was able to catch that the new credit facility is for "a large LNG project that they are hopeful about". I'm waiting for the webcast to be posted too, so that I can complete my notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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