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MCR.V - Macro Enterprises


bz1516

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$33m EV currently, and $17m EBITDA ($11m EBIT) for the 9 months. If LNGs do in fact get delayed further and the next 12-18 months are slow as they say, let's say they could do about $10m EBITDA in that scenario? Then you're still getting it now for 3-4x EBITDA. This business shouldn't trade at 8x EBITDA probably but 3-4x trough EBITDA seems very low indeed.

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$33m EV currently, and $17m EBITDA ($11m EBIT) for the 9 months. If LNGs do in fact get delayed further and the next 12-18 months are slow as they say, let's say they could do about $10m EBITDA in that scenario? Then you're still getting it now for 3-4x EBITDA. This business shouldn't trade at 8x EBITDA probably but 3-4x trough EBITDA seems very low indeed.

 

Agreed. By my calculation of adjusted earnings, they've made $0.32 in the TTM. Sounds like it may get worse in the near term but this thing is still way too cheap. Also below liquidation value with a Fort Knox balance sheet.

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They are trading at 1.3x EV/ttm EBITDA.

 

If one valued their PP&E at 50% book value and added in net cash per share, the stock is worth 2.00$.

 

Management several times have said that about half of their revenue is recurring. They did 212m 2013 and 200m 2014. Say 90m is recurring revenue and 21% gross margins.  That is about 12m EBITDA (close to the above 10m number).  5x on that is 50% above today's price. And that is the low case scenario.

 

The high case is well over 200m revenue.  The stock being worth 10-12$ within a couple years is not unreasonable at all.

 

 

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They are trading at 1.3x EV/ttm EBITDA.

 

If one valued their PP&E at 50% book value and added in net cash per share, the stock is worth 2.00$.

 

Management several times have said that about half of their revenue is recurring. They did 212m 2013 and 200m 2014. Say 90m is recurring revenue and 21% gross margins.  That is about 12m EBITDA (close to the above 10m number).  5x on that is 50% above today's price. And that is the low case scenario.

 

The high case is well over 200m revenue.  The stock being worth 10-12$ within a couple years is not unreasonable at all.

 

I didn't know that until the most recent earnings release, but they amortize the entire PPE using double declining balance method, so their PPE is probably worth a fair deal more than what's on the books. The gain on sale they had is evidence of that as well...

 

There is no other stock that I know of that is as cheap as this whose value is relatively clear... I don't want to jinx it for everyone because sh**  can and will happen, but I can't help but feel like it's a layup.

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  • 2 months later...

Even with the recent downturn and probable continued protraction of the markets, this company remains easily one of the best risk/reward bets out there today. A growing business that is trading like it went under 2 years ago...  Business results should come out any time now, there probably won't be anything great in the near term but a few years out this company will do pretty well, I expect net earnings to roughly match current market cap once we reach near the peak.

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  • 1 month later...

Numbers are out: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/macro-enterprises-inc-announces-2015-210800438.html

- shareholders' equity of $96.2 million or $3.20 per share

- net income of $1.1 million, but had some accounting changes that improved income by $2.9m

 

Overall not very exciting but my calculation of liquidation value (~ >$2.50 per share) far exceeds current market price.

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  • 1 month later...

Q1 wasn't pretty, as expected. $9m sales, expects Q2 to be materially lower. Since at least Q3 2015 they've said that 12-18 months forward may be very slow, and they continue saying that. Hope they don't run out of time with waiting to get into some LNG projects. Will be watching whether they can deliver on that expectation of being cash flow positive still this year.

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Q1 wasn't pretty, as expected. $9m sales, expects Q2 to be materially lower. Since at least Q3 2015 they've said that 12-18 months forward may be very slow, and they continue saying that. Hope they don't run out of time with waiting to get into some LNG projects. Will be watching whether they can deliver on that expectation of being cash flow positive still this year.

 

In their latest report (attached), they state that $12.5M of their receivables were outstanding for over 90 days. Do you know if/when they will be collecting on that?

 

zz.pdf

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Q1 wasn't pretty, as expected. $9m sales, expects Q2 to be materially lower. Since at least Q3 2015 they've said that 12-18 months forward may be very slow, and they continue saying that. Hope they don't run out of time with waiting to get into some LNG projects. Will be watching whether they can deliver on that expectation of being cash flow positive still this year.

 

In their latest report (attached), they state that $12.5M of their receivables were outstanding for over 90 days. Do you know if/when they will be collecting on that?

 

I don't, and that was one thing that caught my eye. Doesn't look very good and I wouldn't wonder if they wrote down more in the coming quarters. Anyone else have a better view?

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  • 3 months later...

Recent quarter wasn't great.  However I do find it impressive that revenue went from 76mil to 13mil for last 6months yoy and they only lost 6mil.  Not too many businesses that can do that.

 

I also think that the longer this down cycle plays out the better their competitive positioning when it comes to new contracts.  Most other service providers don't have their balance sheet strength and can't last long enough.

 

Short of no new pipelines ever being built I don't really see how you can lose money here.  I do think that KMI's Transmountain gets approval at the end of the year and Petronas LNG is getting closer to a decision.  Hopefully patience is rewarded.

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Recent quarter wasn't great.  However I do find it impressive that revenue went from 76mil to 13mil for last 6months yoy and they only lost 6mil.  Not too many businesses that can do that.

 

I also think that the longer this down cycle plays out the better their competitive positioning when it comes to new contracts.  Most other service providers don't have their balance sheet strength and can't last long enough.

 

Short of no new pipelines ever being built I don't really see how you can lose money here.  I do think that KMI's Transmountain gets approval at the end of the year and Petronas LNG is getting closer to a decision.  Hopefully patience is rewarded.

 

I'm curious which other service providers are you talking about? Are they in direct competition to Macro? I couldn't find much info on any of them as they were all privately held. Has this changed recently?

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I was more looking at service providers in general.  Most in both the mining and oil sectors tended to lever up in the good times.  Partly human nature.  So apologies for the confusion.

 

You are correct though, their competitors are mostly private.  They did mention to me a smaller competitor closing shop a couple months back but don't think that would have any real impact on them.

 

I do think that longer down cycle should be ultimately beneficial for them, but it's just my speculation no hard evidence to back that up.

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I was more looking at service providers in general.  Most in both the mining and oil sectors tended to lever up in the good times.  Partly human nature.  So apologies for the confusion.

 

You are correct though, their competitors are mostly private.  They did mention to me a smaller competitor closing shop a couple months back but don't think that would have any real impact on them.

 

I do think that longer down cycle should be ultimately beneficial for them, but it's just my speculation no hard evidence to back that up.

 

Thanks for the clarification. My views are the same as yours. However on the other side of the coin it looks like the fat greasy days are over for a good while, I guess the next 6-8 years. I think Macro will pull off lower margins on the new work that will come in, offsetting the higher amount of work that I expect them to get. In the end, the situation is still the same, you still get a growing business for cheaper than liquidation value. Like you say, hard to lose here...

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In the end, the situation is still the same, you still get a growing business for cheaper than liquidation value. Like you say, hard to lose here...

How are they growing? You mean taking share in maintenance services or growth if a new pipeline is constructed?

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  • 1 month later...

Anyone else surprised by the non reaction in the stock today?

 

Typical for a Canadian nano cap. Also there has been a block of stock overhanging for about a month now - once this clears (and a large portion has already been sold) then it should move back up closer to $2

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