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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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Fairfax. It has been remarkably resilient the past 2 days as the market has sold off. I wonder if FFH is buying :-) Opportunity for me to lock in some nice gains and have lots of cash to redeploy should we see the stock market continue to sell off.

 

I continue to like the insurance side of the Fairfax; it looks like they are in a hard market. However, bond yields are down significantly and could stay down which will decrease interest income as the year progresses. And their stock portfolio is taking a big hit; Their two big holdings, Seaspan and Eurobank, are down big time since Jan 1. My guess is equity markets will stay weak for Q1.

 

 

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Sold too many to mention, including stuff that I just bought recently. Went into a sales frenzy during lunch time when we had an inter day bounce. I also sold my beloved BRKB, except on my taxable account. Amazing to see the SPY just 7% below the peak with all that stuff going on.

 

That said, my timing typically sucks.

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Sold too many to mention, including stuff that I just bought recently. Went into a sales frenzy during lunch time when we had an inter day bounce. I also sold my beloved BRKB, except on my taxable account. Amazing to see the SPY just 7% below the peak with all that stuff going on.

 

That said, my timing typically sucks.

Sold my sellable positions, kept the iliquid ones (which I think might be more or less imune to coronavirus)... my timing has been terrible in the last few months, with many of the sells being on the absolute Bottom.  As such, maybe this crash has already ended...

 

Edit: the liquidity dried up on those iliquid stocks, so maybe their immnunity is just me reassuring myself :)

 

Edit2: on timing, ALL my sells in the last few months are still ABOVE my selling price... humpf...

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Sold too many to mention, including stuff that I just bought recently. Went into a sales frenzy during lunch time when we had an inter day bounce. I also sold my beloved BRKB, except on my taxable account. Amazing to see the SPY just 7% below the peak with all that stuff going on.

 

That said, my timing typically sucks.

 

I will give you some props. Your reasoning in a thread not long ago(maybe a few months) actually helped me quite a bit with the decision to part ways with some GOOG and a few other holdings not too long ago. Stuff originally stubborn me convinced myself were never sell items because gee buy and hold is where the real compounding/returns are! 

 

Your timing was pretty friggin good on DD sale too...

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I sold some safety today, the last portion of TLT.

 

There is still upside (perhaps a lot) but the range of (unconventional) outcomes is just too large. Of course, Mr. Buffett is right and the term premium has been negative for some time which is moronic and stocks in 30 years or something will do better than bonds. But people may suggest that there is no floor and non-linear changes are possible.

 

I had hoped to redeploy funds at such time but this feels like when losing altitude in a specific circumstance. At a certain point, you need to jump and then the handle must be pulled in order to speed decouple, ascertain the perspective and adjust your landing spot.

 

I hope to never meet again circumstances indicating that investing in long term risk-free bonds would make sense.

FWIW, it’s not the virus that triggered the final decision, it’s the poor mechanical and fundamental construct of the rocket.

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BRK; decided to lock in my still small gain of 1.5% for 2020 (total portfolio) and move to cash. Too many unkowns that are important inputs to investment decisions (like that will US GDP, corporate profits etc be in 2020?). Will know much more in the next month :-)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sold about 1/2 of my positions today just before the close (that i bought just yesterday). What an amazing bounce the last 20 minutes of trading today. The President certainly timed the presser today perfectly.

 

It was very encouraging to hear what the plans are. Let’s see what the reality is next week.

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