KJP Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Rosetta Stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 GRBK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Rosetta Stone I've now sold essentially all of my Rosetta Stone. A press release saying that they're exploring alternatives has increased the enterprise value of the business by 60%. I think that says alot about both the value of the Lexia and perceptions about of current management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jschembs Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Any thoughts on CTAS as a short? Stock hitting ATHs on a surprisingly strong quarter, but given their customer base, I have to imagine the core business is going to really struggle over the next couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Trimmed TRRSF and CARR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside it's still has a 8.23% yield at the current price. W/o doing anything, it's not a shabby return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Rosetta Stone I've now sold essentially all of my Rosetta Stone. A press release saying that they're exploring alternatives has increased the enterprise value of the business by 60%. I think that says alot about both the value of the Lexia and perceptions about of current management. Well done on what seems like a good, original idea working out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside it's still has a 8.23% yield at the current price. W/o doing anything, it's not a shabby return. Nope, I think that it's very favorable in this environment, but I see more upside elsewhere. There are still some pockets where I think the market is overly focused on the short term. I'm pretty big in auto dealerships and while Asbury in the US is up 150 pct since its low, Cambria Automobiles in the UK is only up like 30 pct after dropping back lately - despite fine results and updates from peers. So just a relative valuation call, WMB looks good here and probably have more juice. With rates at these levels their assets are extremely attractive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libs Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Shorted TSLA at the open. 1% position. Willing to lose 100%; i.e. will cover at $3200 / share but otherwise will be sticky. I just couldn't take it any more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high... Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high... Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high... Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jschembs Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high... Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something. Wow, I hadn't looked at this name in a couple of years. What a ride. I think they are at risk of being squeezed on both ends of the spectrum. BUD and TAP may not be the greatest operators, but their influence over retailers via their distribution heft is incredible. Just look at how BUD blows out distribution of regional microbrews they acquire. Hard for SAM to compete on that basis. On the other end of the spectrum, you have the proliferation of local / regional microbreweries that will never be able to compete with SAM or BUD on distribution, but have sufficient regional name recognition that they can muscle out mediocre national brands. Sam Adams is not a beer anyone I know ever talks about. You're either drinking really good local brands when you want a beer or two, or drinking the Coors Lights of the world when you're on the golf course for the day. I know SAM isn't just Sam Adams, but I just don't see how these guys have a compelling market position over the long term, and certainly wouldn't touch the equity at ~80x FCF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high... Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something. Yea, I definitely brought it on myself. I dont care to look back on the posts, but this was/is a pure valuation short/hedge. I added a bit more today around $800. I've got a stop at $1050 and will cost myself about 250 bps if hit. I actually did a reasonably amount of work on this some years back when the stock was trading around $175. Figured upside on a sale was $4.5B or so. Was long for a little bit. Hard to imagine Truly is a $6B brand, but who knows in todays market. I dont think this is a "great" company. But its definitely not a bad one. In relation to one of your other posts on shorting, Chanos often mentions the 3 Fs. Frauds, failures, and fads. Ive found the first two are reliable, but fads are highly subjective. One of my best longs in recent years was Sodastream, a 7x trade(left a bunch of upside on the table selling too soon) even though many thought it was an obvious fad. Fads are fads until theyre not. Will probably be the case here. Just another case of "dont short on valuation alone". An acquaintance sent me an email today on this. Made a rather funny remark about how given the market, you'd think the only thing people did during lockdown was eat Wingstop and drink Sam Adams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Sold 60/70 bull verticals on LMND going out to march. Small tracker position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisowis Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Sold OPT.TO (Figured all the shenanigans would lead to a pop sooner rather than later. For more info on the story, I found this post: https://chaptertwelvecapital.com/post/optiva-the-perils-of-a-controlling-shareholder/ ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 sold some UNG 9/12 Jan 22 bull spreads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 PDLI ( thanks to wabuffo for the idea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 Sold calls on HL Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 PDLI ( thanks to wabuffo for the idea) Why selling it now? there should still be some room to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 sold some EDIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 I am tempted to short Eversource. My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them. The regulator is also pissed. https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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