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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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Trimmed U and FUBO as both have appreciated more than I could have anticipated in a short period of time. I really don't like market environments like this where stock prices are moving so rapidly. It makes it difficult to do the work of understanding a company before price "gets away" from you. 

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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.

 

Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.

 

If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them.  Size them small and diversified.  Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.

 

I’m finally getting my thick skull to realize that. Have wasted way too much time trying to make money off O&G in the last 15 years.

 

Everytime, I am like "if this goes down, I will back the truck up."  I never have the balls to do it when it actually happens.  I am no smarter today than 10 years ago because who knows what oil price will be and you have to play game theories involving the Saudis, Russia, US and Venezuela.  Berry Global (plastic packaging) prints 2-4% organic volume increases in the middle of a pandemic and pays of almost a $billion of debt in 2020 and it trades for single digit P/FCF in 2020 and still trades at 7-8x P/FCF.  Why bother with O&G.  Although GEOS as a net-net is probably a decent allocation because liquidation will bring about 80% upside which means you should sell after a 20-30% bounce.

 

Sold out of my GEOS.  No idea why it swing up 40%.  Have been selling in the 7s and now the 8s.  Rent them, don't marry them. 

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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.

 

Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.

 

If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them.  Size them small and diversified.  Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.

 

I’m finally getting my thick skull to realize that. Have wasted way too much time trying to make money off O&G in the last 15 years.

 

Everytime, I am like "if this goes down, I will back the truck up."  I never have the balls to do it when it actually happens.  I am no smarter today than 10 years ago because who knows what oil price will be and you have to play game theories involving the Saudis, Russia, US and Venezuela.  Berry Global (plastic packaging) prints 2-4% organic volume increases in the middle of a pandemic and pays of almost a $billion of debt in 2020 and it trades for single digit P/FCF in 2020 and still trades at 7-8x P/FCF.  Why bother with O&G.  Although GEOS as a net-net is probably a decent allocation because liquidation will bring about 80% upside which means you should sell after a 20-30% bounce.

 

Sold out of my GEOS.  No idea why it swing up 40%.  Have been selling in the 7s and now the 8s.  Rent them, don't marry them.

 

Okay this one is now up 50% in about 5 days.  No regerts!!

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