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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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Sold all but 1 share of TPL for a quick 27ish% gain in a non taxable account (pure luck & maybe short sighted).

 

I've done sparse trades around BRK, GPC, NVO & WFC for meager single digit gains. These are all long term holds that I maintain a core position in & wouldn't be bothered if I got stuck holding extra shares of.

 

However, I'm going to stop doing this for now because I've been getting lucky & don't want to get addicted to gambling.

 

If any of these takes a plunge (TPL included), I'll likely start pushing chips in again.

 

Signed,

 

the Borderline Robinhood Investor

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  • 2 weeks later...

Trimmed CELH.

 

25x forward revenues is very rich when other "high growth" beverage names like MNST are trading at 8x.

 

I always worry about selling something like this that has been successful (and I happen to really like their products).

 

When I extrapolate 40% growth out for 5 years and assume 30% margins (in line with MNST but 50% higher than 18-20% for FIZZ), CELH would be an $800 million brand with $240 million of operating profit and $170 million of NOPAT. Keeping in mind S/O have expanded at >10% per year the last few years, 5 years from now S/O is very possibly 80 million. So EPS per share would be about $2. In other words, CELH is trading at 28x a VERY optimistic growth and margin profile 5 years from now.

 

Another way to think about it is CELH has a similar EV to FIZZ with 1/6 the sales.

 

 

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Took another roughly 10% or so off CRSP, EDIT, BEAM, RPTX and paid down some margin plus added to ARKG short.

 

Also tacked on a few more shares to TSLA short.

 

Interesting enough, both ARKK and ARKG come up in Fidelity as Hard to borrow although they weren’t expensive to borrow ( 0.5% annually for ARKK).

 

Can you get short squeezed  out of an ETF?

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I think HTB is just a designation for an elevated fee, currently I think ~2-3% although that floats. More important to keep an eye on available shares. Theres over 1M shares of ARKG at Fidelity and a couple mil at RBC. Haven't checked IBKR. Dont underestimate the brokerage industry's cleverness with disclosing fees. That HTB warning is often just the way they tell you they're hitting up your account for something.

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Sold the rest of ADS. Has been a drag on performance for years and got absolutely killed in March. Couldn't kill the biz though, so I bought more which worked out nicely. There's definately a case to be made for it to double, but in this environment I prefer to take off exposure in the US and deploy in better ops internationally. Also sold a third of Ulta Beauty.

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