Macro Developments - wsbase

[twacowfca]

Up, up, up the easy money policy drives the WSBASE-

WS_Base_10.09.2013.pdf

[twacowfca]

Up, up, up the easy money policy drives the WSBASE-

 

 

FWIW WSBASE is up a out 88% since QE I was announced, and the S&P 500 is up about 64% as would be expected when inflation has been confined to financial assets.  However, M2 is up 30% during the same period. That 's not inconsequential for the broader economy.  If anyone can tell me when the tap will be turned off, I'll tell him how to get a free ride down the shaft to the bottom of the pit.

[meiroy]

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/10/bank-lending-continues-to-increase.html

 

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-fed-is-not-printing-money.html

 

[meiroy]

Up, up, up the easy money policy drives the WSBASE-

 

 

FWIW WSBASE is up a out 88% since QE I was announced, and the S&P 500 is up about 64% as would be expected when inflation has been confined to financial assets.  However, M2 is up 30% during the same period. That 's not inconsequential for the broader economy.  If anyone can tell me when the tap will be turned off, I'll tell him how to get a free ride down the shaft to the bottom of the pit.

 

What if it won't be turned off in the foreseeable future?

 

[twacowfca]

Up, up, up the easy money policy drives the WSBASE-

 

 

FWIW WSBASE is up a out 88% since QE I was announced, and the S&P 500 is up about 64% as would be expected when inflation has been confined to financial assets.  However, M2 is up 30% during the same period. That 's not inconsequential for the broader economy.  If anyone can tell me when the tap will be turned off, I'll tell him how to get a free ride down the shaft to the bottom of the pit.

 

What if it won't be turned off in the foreseeable future?

 

Autocorrelation in financial series is generally the best predictor.  However, it's important to pay close attention to statements from the FED about when that direction will change.  When they turn off the tap, the underpinning of the market will be on quicksand. 

 

Meanwhile, we're still about 130% long.  Will we be agile enough to beat the crowd to the exit? Maybe not, but our major holdings are a good value now and will be an even better value if Mr. Market says they are worth less than the current price .  :)