given2invest Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think your #s are off. All 3 VIC writeups + Walker's Blog have the discount 25% to 40% and are all over a number of years ranging 2014 to 2018. Can read the VIC writeoffs they all not behind the wall. Maybe you were including the minority book in your discount as I once made that mistake. EDIT: After looking back a few years yah it was in mid/low 40's for some time as well. But it's never been >50% till 2019. I was buying it low 50's discount in December. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/SENVEST_CAPITAL_INC/5404192305 31% discount April 2018, etc. May 2018 33% discount http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2018/05/senvest-could-be-hitting-an-inflection-point-svctf.html Agree, not much here besides getting cheap beta in an illiquid stock but if they do put up a decent 2020 and discount closes to 35-40% (the top of the range before the last 12 months) would have big returns. Not saying discount goes to 0 or even close. At end of day, family owns 60% of company and will do something to eliminate the discount...though that might take 20 years. But you are aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I track the live performance of their portfolio in a sheet and project that move onto the latest NAV, then compare it to the trading price every now and then. So there's some manual work involved and the tracking is obviously not perfect. I'm sure there are some mistakes in my numbers. However, I think the gist of it is correct. You got me scared however. To doublecheck my work I hacked a sheet together today that compares the trading price of Senvest on the last day of each quarter to the subsequently reported NAV of that quarter (the assumption being that the market is on average reasonably adept at tracking the portfolio, which seems to be the case). You can find the sheet here. The average discount the past 5 years was 40%+. In December 2017 / March 2018 the discount was indeed around 25% - 30%, a 5-year low. Shortly after that Andrew Walker wrote his blog post and a VIC article was published. The December 2018 VIC writeup: I don't know what this guy is doing to arrive at 34%. His article is published on December, 8 but he comes up with a discount to estimated year-end NAV :o . That was a volatile period though, and I don't have enough data points around that time. Maybe he was right. I haven't bothered to look at 2014. I'm sure that VIC writeup is about right. Anyway, it's all a bit nitpicking. I agree that this seems like a good entry point if you like Senvest and/or are optimistic about this bull market raging on. Cheap beta indeed. At end of day, family owns 60% of company and will do something to eliminate the discount.. The pessimistic scenario is that they will abuse minority holders for a few more years and then take the company private at an opportunistic price. Also, I'm not sure if, from a tax perspective, the family would even be happy with a high share price. Not sure how that stuff works in Canada. On the other hand, they've been buying back shares though, 5% the past 5 years. Slowly but surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I have met the family before (I'm not friends with them by any means) and I think it's rather unlikely they will rob minority. I think a lot of friends own the stock and Senvest employees. So on the list of my worries, getting robbed by them is not one of them. I do agree with everything else you've written in this thread though. They should do a tender at 200 or 210 or 220 and rinse/repeat till the discount is <20%. They will make a ton of $ for themselves and it's also the shareholder friendly approach, which is practicing what they preach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sculpin Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Hit harder than most fund managers in Q1 with share price dropping down to $100 & now just back to $120. Q2 should be out in next 2 weeks - will they make back little/most/none of their losses from the destruction of their portfolios in March? Someone said they were spreadsheet tracking their portfolios. No position. "Senvest Capital Inc. had a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $342-million or $129.38 diluted loss per share attributable to common shareholders for the three months ended March 31, 2020. This compares with a net income attributable to common shareholders of $54.8-million or $20.36 diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders for the same period in 2019." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Q3 is out. I just ballparked it and had NAV around $300 per share vs share price of $145. No reason for the gap to close as repurchases are miniscule. Still I hold, possibility for discount to narrow should they get their mojo back. I do like their diversification, quite a unique portfolio. It's worth reading their reports for ideas even if you don't invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Q3 is out. I just ballparked it and had NAV around $300 per share vs share price of $145. No reason for the gap to close as repurchases are miniscule. Still I hold, possibility for discount to narrow should they get their mojo back. I do like their diversification, quite a unique portfolio. It's worth reading their reports for ideas even if you don't invest. Did you get $300 NAV counting Oct returns? Just curious I haven't looked yet. I agree, discount will not close or even get smaller w/o years of good returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Q3 is out. I just ballparked it and had NAV around $300 per share vs share price of $145. No reason for the gap to close as repurchases are miniscule. Still I hold, possibility for discount to narrow should they get their mojo back. I do like their diversification, quite a unique portfolio. It's worth reading their reports for ideas even if you don't invest. I absolutely agree with you. Now the Nov fund results are out. Master fund up 44% in nov What the hell!!! The fund is now around 3300 and is about 10% off the high watermark of 2018. The fund bet big on coronavirus recovery and reduced its shorts while adding to longs. So basically it got more leveraged after the crash and boy did it pay off. Funds are up about 10% this year. It is trading at around 45% of book with the current price of $162 ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Senvest has two main funds the Master Fund and the Technology fund, does anyone know the sizes of the two? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Holy cow, up 17% in December Book is now north of $400 prob close to $450 - and above the high water mark Stock $179 - biggest NAV discount ever I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Senvest is now over $280 (up over 20% today) and at an all time high. Anyone have any idea what is happening here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Senvest is now over $280 (up over 20% today) and at an all time high. Anyone have any idea what is happening here? Yes. They filed a 5% position on GME in the fall. No clue of course if they still hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Thanks! I had no idea. I guess I will have to wait to find out how it went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Senvest is now over $280 (up over 20% today) and at an all time high. Anyone have any idea what is happening here? Yes. They filed a 5% position on GME in the fall. No clue of course if they still hold. Ya we cannot be 100% certain if they did or didn't sell since Oct. But they went over 5% which requires a 13G form. So if they go below 5% they would have to file again? answered my own question from investopedia: Any changes to the information contained in a Schedule 13G form must be amended through additional reporting. Institutional investors are required to file an amendment to report any changes within 45 days of the end of the year or within 10 days of first finishing a month above 10% and then within 10 days of any month-end where the holder's ownership increases or decreases by 5% or more. Passive investors have similar requirements for reporting amendments So, if they sold it would be very recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Holy cow, up 17% in December Book is now north of $400 prob close to $450 - and above the high water mark Stock $179 - biggest NAV discount ever I think My educated guess/calculation says the NAV = CDN$633, so at the quoted high of 320 that is barely at 50% of nav Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Richard Mashaal is the CEO or owner of Senvest IIRC. A rare write-up on Senvest from WSJ. Richard Mashaal and Brian Gonick started buying GameStop Corp. GME 2.68% shares in September. .. By the end of October, Senvest owned more than 5% of the company, paying under $10 a share for the bulk of the stock. .. GameStop is now Senvest’s most profitable investment by dollars earned and by its internal rate of return—a performance metric that takes into account the length of an investment. It has propelled the firm’s flagship stock-picking fund from running $1.6 billion at the end of 2020 to $2.4 billion. For the month of January, the fund returned 38.4% after fees. .. After the market’s close on Jan. 26, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted “GameStonk!!” a rallying cry to users of Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, who had put their support behind GameStop. Senvest, which had slowly been trimming its position, decided to get out completely. “Given what was going on, it was hard to imagine it getting crazier,” Mr. Mashaal said. On Wednesday afternoon, the firm shared the news of its robust GameStop profit with their clients. Despite the rally’s fade this week, Senvest said the GameStop story will change one part of how they do business: The firm will pay close attention to whether individual investors are discussing a stock on message boards before they bet on or against it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-hedge-fund-made-700-million-on-gamestop-11612390687 Respect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Ding dong ding dong ding dong.. I am ringing the bell. This thing is too cheap to ignore. Feb numbers are out and their main fund is up triple from September. September NAV was $330 so where does that put NAV today? I really don't know but I believe the main fund is the majority of their assets. Management is increasing the share buyback and maxed out the last one which I have never seen them do before. I feel senvest is materially below NAV and in spite of the share price increase will likely move up. I like the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 (edited) From last post to today it is up 30% to $388. I was in even earlier around $190, went through hell and saw this thing plummet to $100 only to rocket up 4x. It is enough for me, I don't want to be greedy and small caps feel stretched. I am out. Still a great stock and still undervalued. NAV is probably $800, maybe more but the really easy money is made. Edited June 18, 2021 by no_free_lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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