johnheiderscheit Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Anybody interested in discussing these guys? I am one of the legions of retail investors pulled into the "smoke the cigar butt and own the final golden share" story that was prevalent three or four years ago. (I am in at $10.) I have watched this stagnate while the average small cap has doubled and mos the good value picks have tripled, quadrupled, or more. Anyway, they have spent most of the excess cash on share repurchases and have the count down to around 3.9ml having bought in half the float over the years. But the excess cash is pretty much gone now when you account for the leases and the spending spree. Anyway, the founder died a couple of years ago and apparently the CEO son now feels liberated to turn Danier into more of a growth story. They have gone from being possibly excessively cheap in running the business to spending like drunken sailors. Exhibit A: last year managed to spend $74ml of their $78ml in gross profit on SG&A. They have hired a bunch of very high priced IT and merchandising people and are trying to transition to accessories and growth from outwear and sales stagnation. I have my doubts but hate to admit I was wrong. Anybody else sticking around for the transition? I mean, Coach gets a P/S mulple of 2.72. These guys trade at a tenth of that so the potential upsize is huge. They have good products and although I have denigrated the software most of the spending was desperately needed. Even if after their spending spree they get back to the old level of profitability ($6-8ml fully taxed) at 12x you have a double, plus some. But what does Jeff Wortsman know about running a growth company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 It looks like the CEO is slowly killing profits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Most retailers show online growth though. Crocs is one of the few retailers that hasn't been growing online (at least, they haven't been growing sales from their own online store as they've eased off on the discounting online). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnheiderscheit Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 I apologize for my almost illiterate original post -- typing is not my strong suit and I didn't see the preview button. Anyway, most of the spending seems to be to improve their online selling capabilities, which are essentially nil, especially in the U.S. They are also trying to improve the store experirence and switch to selling higher margin leather accessories at the same time. I think I count about ten VPs in a $150ml company with stagnant sales. That is alot of overhead. The frustrating thing for me is that I think the problem is not the valuation today it is the valuation of three years ago when I bought. I think they were getting too much credit for the profitability of 2010-2011, which was overstated based on the under investment in modernizing the business. In a market where the stock prices of the crappiest retailers are killing it (e.g. TUES at .6x sales LOL) the pain is great. Value investors can sell when the story changes, right? And the story has changed here and won't change for the better for at least a year in all probability, given the enhanced online capabilities don't show up until NEXT Christmas season. Just hate to admit I overpaid initially, I think. P.S. Two class share structure means you are riding this management team, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnheiderscheit Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 Results continue to be poor, the cash reserves for buybacks is pretty much used up, and I am personally getting impatient for some results. If the top line doesn't start to improve soon I will take my modest loss and move on. May have made a mistake betting on the kid here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 This advice may be worth what you paid for it ;) , but from the outside it looks like you bought it for one reason and the thesis changed and you justifying staying in because you hate to admit I was wrong., yet you have your doubts. There are plenty of other stocks out there, is this your best one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnheiderscheit Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 Not my best idea but I try to subscribe to the theory that assets, like soap, tend to disappear the more they are touched. That said, management is doing a good job of making the soap disappear. Thanks for weighing in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I don't understand why mgmt doesn't take this private? The market shows no love to them. What's the point of being a public company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I don't understand why mgmt doesn't take this private? The market shows no love to them. What's the point of being a public company? Because even with no love there is a multiple put on the shares. If you're private and you earn $1 you have $1. If you've public and have even a terrible valuation that $1 might be $3 or $5. Being public has advantages even with a terrible multiple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I don't understand why mgmt doesn't take this private? The market shows no love to them. What's the point of being a public company? Because even with no love there is a multiple put on the shares. If you're private and you earn $1 you have $1. If you've public and have even a terrible valuation that $1 might be $3 or $5. Being public has advantages even with a terrible multiple. You make it sound a bit like they're getting something for nothing. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't really see much of a difference between the two except in liquidity. If you are public, you can sell 100 shares and it's no big deal. If you are private, you have to find a buyer and they usually will only buy the whole thing or a significant portion. But either way, $1 of earnings will be worth a multiple in a private transaction, just like in the public market. Maybe the multiple could be higher in the public market, though (liquidity premium? more efficiently priced because of higher transparency?), but there's also the other phenomenon where publicly traded company sometimes sell for a lower price than they would go in a private transaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Fashion is a tough industry, especially when your product isn't exactly on trend.. Canadian retail space seems to be getting more competitive as international players come in to the market. There's so much choice now, not sure why anyone would shop at Danier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnheiderscheit Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 I think it was a slow motion go private until recently. They were using the excess liqudity on the balance sheet to buy in shares fairly regularly, just skipping a year here and there on a normal course issuer bid. Now, however, I think the excess liquidity is pretty much used up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I think it was a slow motion go private until recently. They were using the excess liqudity on the balance sheet to buy in shares fairly regularly, just skipping a year here and there on a normal course issuer bid. Now, however, I think the excess liquidity is pretty much used up. Excees liquidity is used up now with pretty much zero cash on the balance sheet. They lost $1.54 last qtr, revenues declined. Management seems to have screwed up their summer promo. Anyone still following this? Stock is down to $6.28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnheiderscheit Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Growing bankruptcy risk here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Growing bankruptcy risk here. Sounds about right. I'm out of this one as I did purchase this one back when it was a net-net and was issuing a dutch auction to repurchase its shares. Its very likely that it will follow the trend of dying Canadian clothing retailers that cannot compete with fast fashion and American retailers. I'm still surprised that Le Chateau is still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc75 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Growing bankruptcy risk here. Sounds about right. I'm out of this one as I did purchase this one back when it was a net-net and was issuing a dutch auction to repurchase its shares. Its very likely that it will follow the trend of dying Canadian clothing retailers that cannot compete with fast fashion and American retailers. I'm still surprised that Le Chateau is still around. What do you think of FFH (and Chou's) recent purchases of Reitman's? Early innings of a similar story? (ie. currently a strong balance sheet, but competitive pressures abound) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Growing bankruptcy risk here. Sounds about right. I'm out of this one as I did purchase this one back when it was a net-net and was issuing a dutch auction to repurchase its shares. Its very likely that it will follow the trend of dying Canadian clothing retailers that cannot compete with fast fashion and American retailers. I'm still surprised that Le Chateau is still around. What do you think of FFH (and Chou's) recent purchases of Reitman's? Early innings of a similar story? (ie. currently a strong balance sheet, but competitive pressures abound) I think they have a nice niche in serving plus sized women as there aren't too many options for this demographic. Danier also has a niche as well in supplying leather goods however this segment is very trendy and susceptible to the fashion cycle. It looks like Parkas/Down-filled/Wool jackets seem to be "in" now and leather is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Announces strategic review http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/danier-leather-starts-strategic-review-as-profits-plummet-1.2225211 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnheiderscheit Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I wonder what the prospects are for rescue here. I doubt they have enough liquidity to stock their shelves again next year. Sounds like they laid off that big layer of expensive managers they added a year or two ago but they will still burn maybe $5-10ml even with the cut backs AND assuming sales start to stabilize here. Still a $50ml gross profit biz so my quess is we get a convert that pretty much wipes out the equity. Dual class share structure so the family can probably maintain a small income or a subordinated stake. I still own 1000 shares purchased at $10 bucks. Sold most of what I owned between $6 and $7 but am going to ride this to zero so I never forget the experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If you think it's going to zero, why not just sell it now at $3 something? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Does Fairfax still own shares in DL? http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/danier-leather-insolvency-bankruptcy-1.3433807 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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