Michael Lewis on the Next Crisis (Businessweek article)

[meiroy]

Yepp, there's also an offshore and another one.

 

http://marketbrief.com/michael-james-burry

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1586367/000158636713000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml

 

 

[Kiltacular]

there are lessons here courtesy of sa. don't talk. don't sign. and don't waive your right to an attorney.

 

Under no circumstances -- NONE -- should a person ever consent to talk to the police, federal investigators of any kind -- FBI, IRS, etc. without advice of council -- EVER.  Never say a word....especially if you are, or believe you are, innocent. 

 

NEVER agree to a search of anything without a warrant -- EVER.  Again, this is especially true if you are, or believe you are, innocent.

 

I would also never consent to a dna test or a lie detector test without the advice of council.  Once they have dna, they can use it against people even loosely related to you or as yet unborn.  It isn't like fingerprints.

 

And, yeah, bring a jacket if none of that works.

 

2cents from a lawyer friend.

[dowfin1]

A very good presentation by a criminal law expert on talking to police.

 

[skanjete]

I think the ETF market has a fair chance of being part of the next crisis.

 

Terry Smith of Tullett Prebon wrote some insightful articles on his blog about possible problems with ETF's.

[Guest 50centdollars]

california is back in black. things change fast and two year old articles can look dated.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/07/news/economy/california-budget/

 

they may well end up with problems. but the issues don't appear to be acute. things have only gotten better there since Feb.

 

I agree but Detroit just did go bankrupt.

[merkhet]

 

there are lessons here courtesy of sa. don't talk. don't sign. and don't waive your right to an attorney.

 

Under no circumstances -- NONE -- should a person ever consent to talk to the police, federal investigators of any kind -- FBI, IRS, etc. without advice of council -- EVER.  Never say a word....especially if you are, or believe you are, innocent. 

 

NEVER agree to a search of anything without a warrant -- EVER.  Again, this is especially true if you are, or believe you are, innocent.

 

I would also never consent to a dna test or a lie detector test without the advice of council.  Once they have dna, they can use it against people even loosely related to you or as yet unborn.  It isn't like fingerprints.

 

And, yeah, bring a jacket if none of that works.

 

2cents from a lawyer friend.

 

 

Agreed. As a former lawyer myself, regardless of guilt or innocence, if you ever get arrested for anything, the first (and only) words out of your mouth should be "I'd like to speak to (my/an) attorney."

[Guest wellmont]

I doubt they would have convicted him without his signed confession. however, the pressure that you are put under is terrible and wrong. but you can see the reaction from the lead interrogator how important and surprising that confession was. SA was too passive in the situation and didn't realize that anytime you are sitting in that room, it's potentially life altering. your fate is in the hands of people who are not interested in your well being.

[Guest wellmont]

california is back in black. things change fast and two year old articles can look dated.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/07/news/economy/california-budget/

 

they may well end up with problems. but the issues don't appear to be acute. things have only gotten better there since Feb.

 

I agree but Detroit just did go bankrupt.

 

true. special case. and the market didn't even blink. part of the reason why the states made it through without much damage was that they got a lot of stimulus money from feds. the states are headed for trouble. but like a lot of things related to US finances, doomsday has been postponed.

[thomcapital]

Nothing earth shattering here, but I thought the last piece was interesting

 

"Is there a particular threat you’ve identified that’s most likely to blow up next?

The answer is yes, but I can’t talk about it yet, because I’m in the middle of a book about it. It’ll come out next March.

 

And will that be before or after it erupts?

I can’t actually tell."

 

He knows Burry...and Burry recently opened up a new hedge fund. I wonder if there's a connection here.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-12/michael-lewis-on-the-next-crisis

 

I had the pleasure of seeing Michael Lewis give a talk at an industry conference a week ago. He confirmed his next book will be about HFT (I think he said the title is "Flash Boys", calling it a wall street story set in the world of HFT). He called the wall street crisis the gift that keeps on giving.  :)

[CorpRaider]

Isn't (relative) HFT and program trading what is generally blamed for the 1987 crash?

[stahleyp]

Isn't (relative) HFT and program trading what is generally blamed for the 1987 crash?

 

Thanks for the information, thom. It should be a good read.

 

Corp, it's kinda along those lines. I think it was referred to as "portfolio insurance" back in the day.

 

I was thinking about this the other day. Back in 1987 (I was too young to remember so if anyone can correct me here if I'm wrong) a lot of people thought that drop would lead to a new great depression. Now we can see that It didn't.

 

I wonder what would happen this time though. I mean, we have used up a lot of the stimulus and deflation is a possibility. Perhaps nothing would happen since, well, Mr Market jumps around all the time and it doesn't really reflect reality sometimes. We shall see!

[stahleyp]

HFT just got quicker.

 

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/12/news-hft/

[Guest deepValue]

Michael Lewis January 2007:

 

when you create a derivative you don't add to the sum total of risk in the financial world; you merely create a means for redistributing that risk. They have no evidence that financial risk is being redistributed in ways we should all worry about. They're just -- worried.

 

But the most striking thing about the growing derivatives markets is the stability that has come with them

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaagOLYMd4yg

 

Remember, he wrote the book after everyone found out what had happened.

[stahleyp]

ha. good find deep.

[Mephistopheles]

Michael Lewis January 2007:

 

when you create a derivative you don't add to the sum total of risk in the financial world; you merely create a means for redistributing that risk. They have no evidence that financial risk is being redistributed in ways we should all worry about. They're just -- worried.

 

But the most striking thing about the growing derivatives markets is the stability that has come with them

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaagOLYMd4yg

 

Remember, he wrote the book after everyone found out what had happened.

 

Good find.

 

He's a great writer, but I always found him annoying with a "holier than thou" persona.

[indythinker85]

Corner of Berkshire making a name for itself. https://twitter.com/felixsalmon/statuses/42317763144227635 @felixsalmon 4h

New Michael Lewis book to be titled “Flash Boys”, about high-frequency trading, says the internet: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/michael-lewis-on-the-next-crisis-%28businessweek-article%29/30/ … ^@cardiffgarcia

[thomcapital]

Nothing earth shattering here, but I thought the last piece was interesting

 

"Is there a particular threat you’ve identified that’s most likely to blow up next?

The answer is yes, but I can’t talk about it yet, because I’m in the middle of a book about it. It’ll come out next March.

 

And will that be before or after it erupts?

I can’t actually tell."

 

He knows Burry...and Burry recently opened up a new hedge fund. I wonder if there's a connection here.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-12/michael-lewis-on-the-next-crisis

 

I had the pleasure of seeing Michael Lewis give a talk at an industry conference a week ago. He confirmed his next book will be about HFT (I think he said the title is "Flash Boys", calling it a wall street story set in the world of HFT). He called the wall street crisis the gift that keeps on giving.  :)

 

And "Flash Boys" it is...

 

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/15/business/media/new-michael-lewis-book-on-financial-world-will-be-published-in-march.html?_r=1&referrer=

[Guest 50centdollars]

Nothing earth shattering here, but I thought the last piece was interesting

 

"Is there a particular threat youve identified thats most likely to blow up next?

The answer is yes, but I cant talk about it yet, because Im in the middle of a book about it. Itll come out next March.

 

And will that be before or after it erupts?

I cant actually tell."

 

He knows Burry...and Burry recently opened up a new hedge fund. I wonder if there's a connection here.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-12/michael-lewis-on-the-next-crisis

 

I had the pleasure of seeing Michael Lewis give a talk at an industry conference a week ago. He confirmed his next book will be about HFT (I think he said the title is "Flash Boys", calling it a wall street story set in the world of HFT). He called the wall street crisis the gift that keeps on giving.  :)

 

And "Flash Boys" it is...

 

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/15/business/media/new-michael-lewis-book-on-financial-world-will-be-published-in-march.html?_r=1&referrer=

 

I am correct in assuming that "flash boys" is computerized trading?