fareastwarriors Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Russia-China Prove Cheap to Investors as Money Flows Rise http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-02/russia-china-prove-cheap-to-investors-as-money-flows-rise.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jouni1 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 http://www.aol.com/article/2014/09/03/obama-estonia-will-never-stand-alone/20956308/ Obama: 'Estonia will never stand alone' http://news.postimees.ee/2911015/estonian-security-police-officer-kidnapped-taken-to-russia-at-gunpoint Estonian security police officer kidnapped, taken to Russia at gunpoint :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Russia's Sistema Chairman Under House Arrest http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/16/russia-sistema-idINL6N0RH4WC20140916 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Russia's Sistema Chairman Under House Arrest http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/16/russia-sistema-idINL6N0RH4WC20140916 sistema down 33% this morning :o edit: i once own sistema and sold it short ago at around 21€ ($27) with a nice gain. i bought some today. stock is down more then 50% in one month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flixil Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Sistema Taking into account that the inistry of Land and Property Relations of Bashkortostan filed a lawsuit to recover 209 billion rubles ($5.8 billion) from Sistema. 6B is 41% of 14B that is the current stockholder equity in the balance sheet. 33% looks close enough from 41% if we think that there is about 1/5 probability for the lawsuit not to win. What do you guys think about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flixil Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 http://rapsinews.com/news/20140917/272126388.html http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/66a2a474-3e7d-11e4-a620-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3DexwEwIc Who should pay, Vladimir Yevtushenkov the board chairman or the company? Is this maneuver only to force a sell of Bashneft below market value? Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
60North Investments Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 This is a very interesting case in many ways. Frankly, I have no idea how this will end but was invested in Sistema and bought yet more yesterday. It does look more and more like the arrest etc. is just to get Bashneft cheaply to other hands, although this naturally might be false. At the moment you can Sistema for less than their stake in MTS is worth. It might be the case though that this doesn't matter in the end, if they decide to take the whole Sistema then this will proove to be another Russian adventure where you're liquidated for basically nothing. If it's Rosneft boss + Putin going for Bashneft, this will be another textbook example of what happens when you combine greed and power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I also think they want bashneft cheaply. They say to him, give as bashneft to this price and your free. But i think the share downturn is to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flixil Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Is there a thread for Sistem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I revisited my investment thesis for russia in the last days and came to the conclusion that a lot of things have gotten worse in the last six month. I freaked out in the end and sold all russia related investments (BP,Lukoil,RSXJ) because i have no trust that things get better again as long as Putin has the lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Pitch Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I also think they want bashneft cheaply. They say to him, give as bashneft to this price and your free. But i think the share downturn is to much. What makes you think they’ll offer a price? I think they’ll just take the assets for nothing and jail anyone they can get their hands on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I also think they want bashneft cheaply. They say to him, give as bashneft to this price and your free. But i think the share downturn is to much. What makes you think they’ll offer a price? I think they’ll just take the assets for nothing and jail anyone they can get their hands on. sorry to hear you jump ship, I will stay on the way John Templeton told us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I also think they want bashneft cheaply. They say to him, give as bashneft to this price and your free. But i think the share downturn is to much. What makes you think theyll offer a price? I think theyll just take the assets for nothing and jail anyone they can get their hands on. i think they will give him a symbolic Price. not much, but a Price that they can say we bought this Thing legally. thereafter he is a free man or he not cooperate with Putin and co and he will lose everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poor Charlie Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Does anyone have advice on direct access to the Russian market for a US personal account (paperwork/brokerage)? Are there any international brokers that provide access? I am looking at MOEX and Sberbank PFDs as well as a few smaller names. Anything would be helpful. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Pitch Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I also think they want bashneft cheaply. They say to him, give as bashneft to this price and your free. But i think the share downturn is to much. What makes you think they’ll offer a price? I think they’ll just take the assets for nothing and jail anyone they can get their hands on. sorry to hear you jump ship, I will stay on the way John Templeton told us I think you quoted the wrong person, I’m just watching this from the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 sorry to hear you jump ship, I will stay on the way John Templeton told us When you meant me, there is nothing to be sorry about :). Look at the lukoil thread to see how the world in russia looked like 7-8 month ago before the Ukraine crisis. It looked like Putin would be a lot more business friendly in the future etc. And now look at the current dilemma. I see my investment in russia as a failure that cost me no money, so everythings fine. Think about what will happen in russia with oil prices a lot lower than today. I doubt that any private asset in russia is safe from Putin in such a scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 http://online.wsj.com/articles/sistema-head-yevtushenkov-freed-from-house-arrest-1411135134 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 When you meant me, there is nothing to be sorry about :). Look at the lukoil thread to see how the world in russia looked like 7-8 month ago before the Ukraine crisis. It looked like Putin would be a lot more business friendly in the future etc. And now look at the current dilemma. I see my investment in russia as a failure that cost me no money, so everythings fine. Think about what will happen in russia with oil prices a lot lower than today. I doubt that any private asset in russia is safe from Putin in such a scenario. When I started that thread I wrote A final variable well worth considering is the country-risk that Russia presents. The Russian Government has proved its ability to commit folly against Russian oil companies. Ten years ago the Russian Government brought down Yukos Oil swiftly and illegally. When I created a mathematical expectation of Lukoil’s stock performance over time, I did so with the assumption there was a 20% chance that the Russian Government would take Lukoil’s stock price to zero. And then people responded by saying Putin is a maniac. And of course they were right. So I'm not sure what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 And then people responded by saying Putin is a maniac. And of course they were right. So I'm not sure what you're talking about. On page 3 or 4 there is this stuff from Jim Rogers where he talks about russia, and i was at that point in time under the impression that the political situation gets better over time. But it has not improved, it got worse and this is just 10 months ago. So when you discounted the political system with 20%, don`t you think you now have to use a higher discount? And since this discount is not really quantifiable, why is the market wrong with the current discount? The problem here from my point of view is that when the business gets under pressure the political system gets instable, too. Reminds me a bit of buying on margin. But it was clearly my fault to not see this problems earlier, and i don`t want to blame anyone except me for that. So keep up the good work, i learned a lot! At BP i underestimated the fines and open business claims, so again this was my fault not anyone else`s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 We haven't seen Lukoil's profit materially decrease because of Putin's madness. So I don't yet see a reason to decrease my valuation. If all out war breaks out in Russia, the market price goes to hell, but Lukoil continues making 9+ billion a year, why should my valuation go down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 I sold my Lukoil position for moral reasons. I'm soft like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 I sold my Lukoil position for moral reasons. I'm soft like that. I'm not far behind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flixil Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Russia's Bashneft confirms cancelation of unit sale to Sistema http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/750966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flixil Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 == JSFC Sistema, the largest publicly-traded diversified holding company in Russia and the CIS, said the acquisition of a 98% stake in OJSC United Petrochemical Company from the group's subsidiary, JSOC Bashneft, has not been completed. It said Bashneft retained ownership of UPC. == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
60North Investments Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Sistema down another 20% today. Have to say that it's not pleasant to look at all. Now it's priced at 5bUSD EV, which is less than the value of their stake in MTS. There's all kinds of rumors that they need to pay back Bashneft dividends worth some billions, raise cash, Evtushenkov still being in home arrest etc. It certainly does feel at times whether it's a dumb thing to just hold on (not really cash to buy more) even though it looks worse and worse every week. I'm planning on staying with it though, I've got time to wait and see whether the whole thing gets taken away or what happens (looks like it's priced according to Bashneft stake being taken away). Would be very interesting to know who are the entities on the buying side of all these trades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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