Haasje Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 http://www.crimesite.nl/nieuws/fraude/29558-ministerie-blundert-bij-inval-staatsloterij Het onderzoek naar malversaties bij de Staatsloterij door de KSA is officieel begonnen. Er zijn aanwijzingen dat diverse trekkingen niet volgens de regels zijn verlopen. Ex-werknemers van het Intralot vrezen dat er wordt gesjoemeld met de uitslag van de grootste loterij van Nederland. Het onderzoek is formeel gericht op ‘de beveiliging van bestanden en systemen rondom het trekkingsproces’. Het vooronderzoek is deze zomer al gestart. Na vragen van de Volkskrant over een beveiligingslek bij de loterij eerder deze maand kwam het onderzoek in een stroomversnelling. An official investigation by the Gaming Authorities has been launched. Offices of Intralot in the Netherlands and De Staatsloterij (State Lottery 100% State owned) have been launched. Unfortunately the Gaming Authorities apparently accidentally tipped off De Staatsloterij days before the raid. According to the source above, there are clues the lottery may have been tamperd with (I didn't see that wording being used in other sources) Opvallend Of er daadwerkelijk iets mis is bij de Staatsloterij, is niet bekend. Wel is het hoogst opmerkelijk dat bij de trekking in januari minder uit is gekeerd dan de bedoeling was. En dat bij de Koningsdagloterij er meer loten meededen dan er waren verkocht. In een reactie zegt de loterij dat die laatste fout voor de trekking was gecorrigeerd. A key piece from that article (i.m.o) is that the January lottery didn't reach the intended payout and at the Kingsday lottery there were more entries than actually had been sold. De Staatsloterij stated (in a response) that the Kingsday issue had been fixed before the draw took place. http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/2680/Economie/article/detail/3751266/2014/09/20/Hoe-is-de-Staatsloterij-te-manipuleren.dhtml The source above describes the way Intralot employees WOULD be able to defraud de Staatsloterij. Obviously even the possibility is a problem although I would expect issues like that should also be easy to fix. I don't understand how the Notary who oversees the draw missed this problem. The way it would work according to the ex-employees interviewed is like this: Apparently there is a printer that prints tickets just like it happens at shops where these tickets are sold at the head office of Intralot. The employees access the file with all the already SOLD tickets. They print a bunch of tickets and replace a number of already SOLD tickets with the numbers of the tickets they printed. There are a few things that I don't understand about this story (and the media always jumps all over this stuff without worrying about "details") Like for example it's weird they would be able to print tickets without being charged (I will ask how this works the next time I go into a shop with one of these) Effectively it would be a money printing machine :S It seems unplausible to me De Staatsloterij wouldn't be able to source tickets back to precise machines. I remember seeing reports in the papers that pinpointed the store where a jackpot winning ticket has been sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The severity and correctness of the story certainly aren't clear at the moment. In combination with overal pressure on the greece stock index, the stock certainly isn't doing well. I'm restraining myself from buying more here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Buh, glad I didn't add more. Packer are you adding at these prices or did you limit your position no matter the price action? Despite the stock being thinly traded, I wonder how much of this decline is due to the recent news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 13, 2014 Author Share Posted October 13, 2014 I have limited my size too soon it appears. It looked there was a downgrade today. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Hm ok. Do you have a link to it by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 what could i say about this Price Action?? it is AMAZING how intralot and all my other stocks are crashing the last weeks. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 I think part of this is index action. Intralot is a part of the Greek index (although it only has 5% of it sales in Greece) so as the index goes so goes Intralot. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 yeah thats the reason packer. but i think the Price Action is amazing. it is normal that stocks go up and down but the last weeks are like complete Crash. everything goes down big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I think part of this is index action. Intralot is a part of the Greek index (although it only has 5% of it sales in Greece) so as the index goes so goes Intralot. Packer This "index" action and the fact that only 5% of its business is in Greece are what attracted me to Intralot in the first place. These prices are making me think about getting back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maybe4less Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I spoke with management last week. They sound fed up with the stock trading largely on Greek headlines. They said they are strongly considering moving the listing to London. It seemed to me like it was very close to being a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I spoke with management last week. They sound fed up with the stock trading largely on Greek headlines. They said they are strongly considering moving the listing to London. It seemed to me like it was very close to being a certainty. Wow. I was just thinking about this possibility the other day. This would be very cool if it came to frution and a rational move. I increased my position considerably in the last few weeks under 1,25€. If they were to move listing to London, a revaluation to only 5-6x EBITDA would already be immense from current market cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I got back in recently too. I've long thought they ought to move the listing. This is great to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 http://www.intralot.com/content/3228/intralot-announces-9m2014-financial-results-strong-increase-revenues-stable-operational Q3 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 http://www.intralot.com/content/3228/intralot-announces-9m2014-financial-results-strong-increase-revenues-stable-operational Q3 out same old, same old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Just to understand, are their new contracts creating expenses upfront that go away over time and the money comes in later when these contracts are running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Maybe this helps: Hey Phaceliacapital. Any chance we can get the same of Q3? :) TIA! Was again shocked to see day volume of barely 50,000€ yesterday for a day after earnings. Might as well skip the stock's listing. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On IB these are https://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3A9IL&hl=en&ei=X8ZkVImgLOHZwQPU5IGYDQ FWB2 if you take the ILOT ones right? It is a bit confusing. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Are you sure you want to put yourself through this ride? ;) But to answer your question: Yes, it's what I have been buying at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Are you sure you want to put yourself through this ride? ;) Haha! Yeah it's a tough one :) I keep telling myself, "if they simply relisted somewhere else, this company would not have a 'Greek discount'" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Can't really just blame it on Greece. Inlot dropped (more than?) double the ASE index. We'll see whether this is irrationality or something else going on. But imo even the broad Greek stock market might have overreacted in the last few weeks. Bond markets don't show the same extremity and this week we learned unemployment is at 25.9% (coming from 28%) and that Greece returned to economic growth (0,7% in Q3), hooray! Maybe this will even lower Syriza's popularity enough in the coming months. Good time to look at Greek companies in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 160m is ridiclous though. Q4 is usually the quarter where they generate loads of cash. I did not like it that much at almost 300, but now it seems the market just overreacted. Seems hard to lose unless the busines completely goes to shit now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjone Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Is anyone concerned that interest coverage is too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 EBITDA coverage is over 3x when subtracting the MI payments from 9mos annualized EBITDA. The debt is rated B+ and is currently priced at a YTM of 7.1%. This pretty good given the Greek sovereigns are at 8.1%. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 While looking for some research on some Greek companies I found some docs on the website of Eurobank Equities. On it among other things I found these links for Intralot: http://www.eurobankequities.gr/Images/Research-(1)/Mid-Small-Caps/Intralot_2014-02-17.aspx http://www.eurobankequities.gr/Images/Research-(1)/Large-Caps/2014/GRECO_2014-09-22.aspx I found other documents but seem to have lost them. For what it's worth and for those that want another point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbrock77 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 What do you guys have for EBITDA (9month) and current net debt? I can't figure out this conversation from the consolidate group #s to the parent company. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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