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INLOT.AT - Intralot


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Does that approach make sense? The minority interest is an equity stake, and not debt, right? If you estimate that the equity is worth a premium to book value, the minority interest should be worth a premium to book value too. Or I'm I saying something stupid here?

The key point in my view is that the allocations on the income statement and dividends paid are far in excess of their 20% or so of the balance sheet equity. So the question for me is "why?". And the answer I believe is a function of the terms of the transactions which vary and do not seem consistent with equity, i.e., consistently 20% (plus or minus given deconsolidations etc), of income. Maybe it should be more consistent with (cumulative?) preferred equity where the dividends can be deferred, but again, the answer depends on the terms.

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Are you referring to the allocation on the income statement or the cash dividends paid?

 

From memory, I recall the allocations on the income statement being closer to 40% than 20% of after tax income over the last few years that I calculated for. I didn't run similar calculations for cash flows, or interim cash flows. So I'm also not sure the frequency the cash is paid.

 

Any chance this is some cash repatriation tactic whereby larger sums are loaned back to the parent? Really unfamiliar with such things myself.

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Also, something I'm curious about more so because I don't understand it rather than thinking something is wrong but:

 

~ 90% of revenue is contracted until 2018 yet the bulk of revenue comes from Licensed Operations which operate without contracts. How can they give these exact numbers out until 2018 using 2012 revenue when the majority is open ended?

 

Anyone know the answer to this?

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I looked at this again because the FCF yield is just so juicy. One thing holding me back is this passage about the CEO from Wikipedia:

 

German authorities' investigations in the Stasi archives found a 350-page report referring to agent "Rocco" ("953/63"). It was alleged that "Rocco" was the code name for Sokratis Kokkalis, allegedly recruited on 25 January 1963.[2] Kokkalis was alleged to have subsequently bribed Greek officials in order for the national telecommunications company of Greece to purchase East German telecommunications equipment.[2][3][4]

Kokkalis was investigated and gave evidence on allegations about his possible involvement in espionage, fraud and money laundering and two alleged misdemeanours of soliciting and giving bribes.[4] Eventually, there was no indictment, due to the statute of limitations having expired.

The Greek businessman was also involved in allegations about fraud in Russia, where his company, Intralot, had sold lottery equipment, technological know-how and software.[4] No formal charges were ever filed for any Intralot representative.[5]

 

It's an odd situation...because my understanding is that these types of business practices are par for the course in some countries and industries. That's just reality. Does anyone have any anecdotal evidence (or warning) about investing in these types of situations, where this business practice is a widespread norm and doesn't mean the guy is a crook? Have things gone "according to plan" or hiccups along the way?

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  • 2 weeks later...

The only additional info I was able to gather is an indictment in Greek law is the beginning of the investigation versus in the US it is result of a grand jury or some other body verifying the charges.  I also believe that if the charges were that serious then they would have problems obtaining contracts in the US which they have not.

 

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From the 2012 annual report p.22:

 

Major direct or indirect participation pursuant to the Articles 9 to 11 of Law 3556/2007

Socrates Kokkalis owned 20.005% of the corporate share capital as of 31/12/2012.

Konstantinos Dimitriadis owned 8.197% of the corporate share capital as of 31/12/2012.

NAKULA MANAGEMENT LTD owned 5,276% of the corporate share capital as of 31/12/2012.

All other natural or legal person / entity own no more than 5% of the corporate share capital.

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I opened an IB account and I realized there are two different ways I can go about the purchase: A) getting a margin loan in Euros or B) Converting $ to Euros in a cash account. Since this is the first stock I will be buying in a different currency, I am wondering if anyone can explain to me which is the better option out of these two? I believe the margin account would eliminate currency risk for the most part, but then I'd have to pay interest, so I am not sure.

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I opened an IB account and I realized there are two different ways I can go about the purchase: A) getting a margin loan in Euros or B) Converting $ to Euros in a cash account. Since this is the first stock I will be buying in a different currency, I am wondering if anyone can explain to me which is the better option out of these two? I believe the margin account would eliminate currency risk for the most part, but then I'd have to pay interest, so I am not sure.

 

I'm not sure either, but something to consider is the euro is at a two month low compared to the dollar now: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/03/markets-forex-idUSL5N0L81DT20140203

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I opened an IB account and I realized there are two different ways I can go about the purchase: A) getting a margin loan in Euros or B) Converting $ to Euros in a cash account. Since this is the first stock I will be buying in a different currency, I am wondering if anyone can explain to me which is the better option out of these two? I believe the margin account would eliminate currency risk for the most part, but then I'd have to pay interest, so I am not sure.

 

Yeah, question is whether you want to pay margin to avoid the currency fluctuations. Maybe a bit of foreign currency exposure is a good thing, sounds like you are already long 100% USD :)

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Yeah, question is whether you want to pay margin to avoid the currency fluctuations. Maybe a bit of foreign currency exposure is a good thing, sounds like you are already long 100% USD :)

 

You are right that I am 100% in USD. But I am not good with macro stuff, so I don't know how to think about the Euro. What would be the risk if there is another financial crisis in Greece, they get kicked out of the Eurozone and are forced to return to the Drachma? How will that effect the investment via margin vs. conversion?

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