PatientCheetah Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Can someone explain the implication? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 down 14% on friday's news. Anyone buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I think people are extrapolating that the next quarter's result will be horrible because the CEO is pushed out. I would wait for the stock to stabilize a little bit before taking the first position. If it continues to sell off tomorrow, it will break its current resistant level, the next support level is down at $7-8 range. The largest current shareholder is Fidelity. Fidelity is known for indiscriminate sellings from my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 We bought some more. Some scuttlebutt from a previous executive indicated that the CEO wasn't that good and should be removed. He thought the firing had more to do with that than anything else. Somewhat of a speculation, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforesthiker Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Bought some more today at around $9.65. I had initially thought the departure of the CEO and board members was tied to the discontinuance of the exorbitant Madison Park consulting arrangement; but scuttlebutt indicates that the CEO departure was really likely for performance issues. The price seems very cheap. I think the stock price will be quite a bit higher in the next year or two; but of course it is almost impossible to tell what the stock price will do over the next few days or weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxputs Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 3rd Quarter results: http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140729-912832.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 3rd Quarter results: http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140729-912832.html Nothing to get excited, guidance is down again. I am remaining on the sideline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforesthiker Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140915/ezpw8-k.html My scuttlebutt - these staff reductions are designed to help reduce unnecessary layers of middle management; so the staff reductions are a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanielGMask Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I don't think it represents a good thing. Successful investing is more than finding an attractive price, actually is about a lot more. Here is why EZPW is no longer among my holdings: http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2190503 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I think this stock deserves a serious regulatory risk discount, and also a discount because management are careless capital allocators. Who cares if it makes more in the next 10 years then waht you pay for it now if they just destroy value by overexpanding constantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxputs Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 So glad I got out of this shitty company led by shitty management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestead31 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 if you're referring to the latest news and subsequent sell off, i view both as positive for patient long term share holders. i don't have the release in front of me, but i believe they are taking a $105M writedown of their US and UK online businesses.... only $10M of that is cash cost, and other restructuring moves are expected to yield $9M in annual savings. as for the comment on management, i'm not going to say that anyone here is an angel b/c its a shady business for sure, but the new executive chairman grimshaw seems to be a legit executive (former CEO of Bank of Queensland - an Aussie listed bank) not just some slimy pawn broker guy. i view the news on the write off that he is kitchen sinking everything he can to dissociate himself from the old management's efforts to get into online and retail at the expense of crushing margins and getting away from the traditional business. again i don't have my notes in front of me but if memory serves the online businesses they scrapped (which they just bought in 2012 & 2013 & of course makes me think the old management was a bunch of fools) were cash flow negative (UK) and a very small contributor (single digit millions in the US), so if exiting these 2 small businesses results in a GAAP hit of 105M but only a cash hit of $10M and they can widen margins back to where tehy were a few years ago, i think this is a very attractive investment (i bought stock on the dip). it is certainly hard to imagine things getting any WORSE here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforesthiker Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I completely agree with LWC above. I view the announcement as very positive - they are getting back to their core business, and getting rid of non-core items that are a cash drain. Once they get past these one time charges, their normalized earnings should hopefully put them back to $15 - $20 per share within a few years. The company / management has some warts for sure, but this seems to be at or near the point of maximum pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 yeah but that is only 50-100% upside from here. And your not discounting earnings with regulatory risk and bad capital allocation. Aren't original crooks still owning controlling shares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestead31 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 "regulatory risk" is an interesting thing... in my view, in this case while regulatory risk is high, it doesn't translate directly to investment risk... rather it translates to investment uncertainty, which is part of the reason why the shares are cheap. for example, according to yahoo finance (too lazy to do my own work at the moment) EZPW trades at a trailing EV/EBITDA of 6.4x and close comp FCFS trades at 11.8X. 25% of EZPW's business is related to consumer loan, while only 7% of FCFS's business is consumer loan. I think it is very unlikely that this business goes away entirely because while the business may be reprehensible, the fact remains that these people need access to capital and short of going to EZPW etc there only option would be the black market. which is worse, usurious interest rates from a public company that can be held accountable, or usurious interest rates from a loan shark that breaks your knee caps when you don't pay? ...but lets imagine that it does go away entirely. yes there would be short term selling, but a huge cloud of uncertainty would be lifted and the multiple would re-rate closer to the multiple that FCFS gets. I think what is most likely to happen is that new management streamlines operations, the government curtails the consumer loan business in some way (but doesn't kill it completely) and then the shares re-rate. under this scenario i can see upside far greater than 100%. as for management, there is still a controlling share holder that appears to be real real slimy, and the market will likely discount that for some time... however, like anything else, the market will forget if and when earnings start to really ramp up as margins widen. i am definitely less than comfortable with this controlling shareholder, but as mentioned previously i do take some comfort in Grimshaw's presence... he was CEO of a real bank and by all accounts has a strong reputation. i don't think he would agree to join this group and put his reputation at risk unless he felt confident that past shenanigans were in the rear-view mirror. that being said i control for this uncertainty through position sizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I think it is very unlikely that this business goes away entirely because while the business may be reprehensible, the fact remains that these people need access to capital and short of going to EZPW etc there only option would be the black market. which is worse, usurious interest rates from a public company that can be held accountable, or usurious interest rates from a loan shark that breaks your knee caps when you don't pay? I don't think people actually go to loan sharks. - You can go to a pawn shop. - You can borrow against your car, if you have one. - You can borrow from FFF (friends, family, fools) - You can wait for your paycheque - You can decide not to pay for certain bills. And honestly, many of these people do not need "access to capital". Some people truly do have emergencies such as needing to fix their car so they can get to work. Other people borrow money right before Christmas to buy gifts. If the government banned payday loans, I think society would be better off. Pawn shops, while usurious, seem to be fine for society. The same might apply for credit cards, which are also usurious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The rates asked in the UK are much lower though. So there is a route in between, they will put a lower cap on rates, and firms like EZcorp will make less. So if you take all those risks, I rather buy this if upside would be 150-200%. Not sure you get so well rewarded with 50-100% upside. Your basicly hoping the market will be stupid enough to not give this a management/regulatory discount. So your buying from a dumbass and selling to a dumbass. I rather just buy from a dumbass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 If they're allowed to sell insurance and to charge fees, there are ways around interest rate caps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I would love to see a more comprehensive business valuation. You are relying on information above that is very conservative. I think fair value is 3.5 x the current quote. Very fragmented market, so lots of growth opportunities. Time will tell but in the mean time I think the market is wrong. Huge MOS. Keep in mind that they are still profitable, and operating performance is being masked by stupid mistakes from the past. Just like BAC. The rates asked in the UK are much lower though. So there is a route in between, they will put a lower cap on rates, and firms like EZcorp will make less. So if you take all those risks, I rather buy this if upside would be 150-200%. Not sure you get so well rewarded with 50-100% upside. Your basicly hoping the market will be stupid enough to not give this a management/regulatory discount. So your buying from a dumbass and selling to a dumbass. I rather just buy from a dumbass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 No thoughts on the 8+% bump the other day on the pitch by a NY hedge fund at the robin hood conference the other day? Anyone attend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 No thoughts on the 8+% bump the other day on the pitch by a NY hedge fund at the robin hood conference the other day? Anyone attend? I didn't know about that; I'd be very interested in notes/presentation if they are around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 No thoughts on the 8+% bump the other day on the pitch by a NY hedge fund at the robin hood conference the other day? Anyone attend? I didn't know about that; I'd be very interested in notes/presentation if they are around. Not sure if you can find notes. Here is who talked about it: Anna Nikolayevsky, founder and chief investment officer of Axel Capital Management LLC, also speaking at the event, recommended investors buy shares of Ezcorp Inc., whose products include pawn and payday loans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforesthiker Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 EZPW Earnings Update http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ezcorp-provides-earnings-schedules-earnings-200100285.html throwing all of the write downs and reserve increases into the current quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestead31 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anna Nikolayevsky, founder and chief investment officer of Axel Capital Management LLC, also speaking at the event, recommended investors buy shares of Ezcorp Inc., whose products include pawn and payday loans. Looks like EZPW is now Axel's largest stock position (half the book is in SPY, which I assume means they are a new fund slowly building their book rather than jumping in and risking big tracking risk right off the bat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like EZPW is now Axel's largest stock position (half the book is in SPY, which I assume means they are a new fund slowly building their book rather than jumping in and risking big tracking risk right off the bat) Hmmm...I don't know about that. I'm seeing the fund has been opened since 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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