racemize Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 Yes, finally in the money on this one now, after averaging down. Most of the people I recommended it to are up 50-100% these days, so I'm a little jealous. If only I'd listened to myself later. I think it still has room to run though. This announcement is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Finally making some significant $$$$$ on this one. Selling the GF division is certainly good news...get back to basics. Blocking & tackling, making money. That is what I like to see! Heck, if this thing gets to $10, might even sell and redeploy the capital. There are just so many low, low P/E stocks out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Yes, finally in the money on this one now, after averaging down. Most of the people I recommended it to are up 50-100% these days, so I'm a little jealous. If only I'd listened to myself later. I think it still has room to run though. This announcement is very good. Good to hear man. This one has been pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 WOW: EZPW has had a heck of run lately! Glad I have not sold yet...but it is getting mighty tempting! Anybody have any thoughts on the latest quarter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforesthiker Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Yes EZPW has been on a fabulous run and has turned out quite well. So much so that it is now my largest position by quite a bit, and is about 24 % of my portfolio. I view EZPW as a long term holding, given their now exclusive focus on pawn (mostly US pawn), which they seem to do well, and huge runway of roll-ups they can do to consolidate mom and pop pawn stores. However, I need to trim this position at some point, and thus am curious re anyone's thoughts on intrinsic value. I am going to dive into this a bit over the next few weeks, but would love to hear other thoughts. When I had last looked at this in depth I had thought that EZPW could reach $15+ by mid next year. I obviously need to revisit this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Yes EZPW has been on a fabulous run and has turned out quite well. So much so that it is now my largest position by quite a bit, and is about 24 % of my portfolio. I view EZPW as a long term holding, given their now exclusive focus on pawn (mostly US pawn), which they seem to do well, and huge runway of roll-ups they can do to consolidate mom and pop pawn stores. However, I need to trim this position at some point, and thus am curious re anyone's thoughts on intrinsic value. I am going to dive into this a bit over the next few weeks, but would love to hear other thoughts. When I had last looked at this in depth I had thought that EZPW could reach $15+ by mid next year. I obviously need to revisit this. I am having some difficulty getting my head wrapped around it's intrinsic value... Analysts are expecting up to $.60/share of earnings NEXT year. So on a P/E basis, this has gotten a little ahead of itself. Of course, if they do earn $.60/share next year AND clean up & build upon operations, then earnings could go substantially higher than that the year after. Who knows, maybe close to $1/share. Add another decent/good year and you earning WELL over $1/share and the current price might still be a bit low. I also agree that they can "roll up" mom & pop pawn shop operators. Heck, 20 years ago in Detroit, there were a handful of pawn shops. Now there are literally dozens of them. Sign #1443 of a downwardly mobile society... EZPW has also grown to a rather large % in my portfolio...Not 25%, but a nice sized chunk. One thing I'm thinking of doing is selling covered calls. If I could solidly get $1.25 for the 12.5's, I would very seriously consider writing them. Get a 22.5% income on a stock that has doubled in price in about a year. Hard to beat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Yes EZPW has been on a fabulous run and has turned out quite well. So much so that it is now my largest position by quite a bit, and is about 24 % of my portfolio. I view EZPW as a long term holding, given their now exclusive focus on pawn (mostly US pawn), which they seem to do well, and huge runway of roll-ups they can do to consolidate mom and pop pawn stores. However, I need to trim this position at some point, and thus am curious re anyone's thoughts on intrinsic value. I am going to dive into this a bit over the next few weeks, but would love to hear other thoughts. When I had last looked at this in depth I had thought that EZPW could reach $15+ by mid next year. I obviously need to revisit this. I am having some difficulty getting my head wrapped around it's intrinsic value... Analysts are expecting up to $.60/share of earnings NEXT year. So on a P/E basis, this has gotten a little ahead of itself. Of course, if they do earn $.60/share next year AND clean up & build upon operations, then earnings could go substantially higher than that the year after. Who knows, maybe close to $1/share. Add another decent/good year and you earning WELL over $1/share and the current price might still be a bit low. I also agree that they can "roll up" mom & pop pawn shop operators. Heck, 20 years ago in Detroit, there were a handful of pawn shops. Now there are literally dozens of them. Sign #1443 of a downwardly mobile society... EZPW has also grown to a rather large % in my portfolio...Not 25%, but a nice sized chunk. One thing I'm thinking of doing is selling covered calls. If I could solidly get $1.25 for the 12.5's, I would very seriously consider writing them. Get a 22.5% income on a stock that has doubled in price in about a year. Hard to beat! Glad I wrote covered calls on this a few days before earnings came out. I got a VERY nice premium for the June 12.5's. The earnings report looked kind of mixed to me... On the plus side they are raising revenue, cutting expenses and getting their administrative house in order. On the negative side, they still lost money. Still hard to gauge where "normalized" earnings are truly at. I suspect that at these prices the stock is fairly valued, but there is a chance of upside surprise in the next 12 months. Anybody got any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 EZPWjunky had a nice comment on yahoo board: ezpwjunky6 days ago For the first time in years I've spent a number of hours really digging into the EZPW numbers....I haven't had to do it before since the company was so grossly undervalued based upon easy to understand, high level metrics (e.g. revenue, store count, etc.). One would have to believe that Rotunda was a poor pawn operator to not understand how undervalued EZPW was. It is still undervalued by about 50-80% compared to FCFS on a revenue basis and store count basis (when considering the lower value of Mexican shops). However, with the stock approaching $12 I thought it was time to do some deeper financial analysis. Key Point #1....EZPW has been outperforming FCFS in pawn loan outstanding (PLO) growth for many quarters. This means that EZPW is taking market share from FCFS (their PLO has actually been SHRINKING...check the 10Qs and a recent 8k on overstatements of PLO). On the call yesterday, Grimshaw confirmed for the first time that they were taking market share from FCFS. Why then you might ask is EZPW not showing positive earnings? That is what I dug into. First of all you need to understand that a smart CEO will throw all the bad stuff into an already lost year (i.e. FY'16) and there is no incentive to increase EPS in a financial period that has been disastrous from a write down perspective (i.e. cleaning up prior management's messes). This is a high level comment but it is a valid point and self evident. Digging into the numbers....it is clear that the 31 cent loss is almost all the CCV write down of about $17m. But that still leaves one wondering why no earnings even forgetting about CCV if the pawn businesses are doing so well? From the PR this week, it is clear that US and Mexican pawn had an aggregate of about $27m of EBITDA. This is a lot of cash thrown off by the operating units. Where did it go? $18m PER QUARTER went to corporate expenses...this number is expected to go down to about $12m by this time next year (greatly reduced legal/accounting and incentive comp will allow them to hit this 30+% reduction). Also $4.5m was eaten by interest expenses. This will also go down dramatically as the Grupo Finmart $89m comes in. In short, there is probably $30-35m per year of corporate expenses and interest expense that will go away. This is about 55-64 cents per share of EBITDA that will be added by early FY'18 (only 9+ months away). Add in the D&A and you can see that they'll be throwing off tons of cash. Lastly, one needs to understand that the upcoming December quarter and March quarters are seasonally better than the quarter just announced. Add in seasonal bumps (and a company no longer trying clear the decks of trash from prior management) and things will be looking much better even as early as this quarter (announced at the end of Jan or early Feb). Finally, I believe that EZPW can continue to improve the underlying performance by their focus on the customer (e.g. the "mystery shopper" program). This should result in better PLO and PSC. Grimshaw has repeatedly shown how relatively small movements in net revenue throw off significant cash and earnings (i.e. great leverage). I expect Rotunda to continue to grow their PLO (at the expense of an FCFS trying to digest CSH) and that this too will result in further cash flow and earnings growth. As I've been saying for many months, by the end of Q3 I see a $14-15 stock. But I'm most excited about F7'18...this is when the corporate expenses drop to only $50m per year (this is $22m less than the current run rate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestead31 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 agree this is still cheap, but I think it is likely to get even cheaper in the new year. i am sure that you are not the only one that has wound up with a bigger than intended position after the incredible run the stock has had off the lows. i think it is likely that alot of people are planning to sell either 1) in the new calendar year so they can push out taxes for a year, or 2) when they reach long term holding status. i'll be ready to buy more if/when it sells off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Hey all: I sold some 12.5 June calls and am reasonably pleased with the outcome so far. Sold them for a bit over $1/contract, last quote was $.35? Of course, the stock is below $10... EZPW just released earnings of $.15/share for the quarter, compared to $.06/share for the prior quarter. It seems to be in the middle range of the analysts range. Revenue was up maybe 3%? Seems like the company is making decent progress...if they can keep it going, stock might still be cheap. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 oddly, the best commentary is on the yahoo boards for this stock. Or in private conversations. I've come up with fair value at $15 from 3 different approaches. If they execute, could get to $20 in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Hey all: Just bought back the June 12.5 calls to close out my position. Why get greedy? I made a nice $.90/share for a couple of months. With a decent earnings report, EZPW might spike up a point or two. At well below $10/share, I think EZPW is undervalued. If they get a LITTLE bit better on their execution, that is going to make a BIG difference in company value and share price. I think $20/share in a couple of years might be a bit optimistic, but not at all outside the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 yeah, I think $20 is optimistic, but possible. I'm certainly not betting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Hey all: Anybody see EZPW's earnings today? EPS of $.15 Looks like it well above what was expected. The company continues to make forward progress. They opened a few new stores and anticipate opening up to 8 more in Mexico this year. What was more impressive was the reduction in corporate overhead...looks like they did a very good job in that area. If they can continue to grow the store base by low single digits, increase SSS low single digits, and then reduce corporate overhead...stock could be earning quite well in a couple few years. I think I saw a report where they thought EZPW could be earning $1.50-$2/share in 5 years. I just hope EZPW spikes up a bit and I'll sell some more covered calls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 you don't see this often in earnings releases: :( Looting of twelve stores in January impacted not only through increased expenses, but by reducing revenue through stolen pawn loan collateral and inventory affecting PSC and sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Dtejd. They have been talking those earnings numbers for years. It is cheap but watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Dtejd. They have been talking those earnings numbers for years. It is cheap but watch out. Well yes, you are correct...HOWEVER, management has changed, divisions sold/shut down, and the business much more focused... A bit of a risk, but I've got a nice capital gain now. I have/am writing covered calls to generate income and reduce my risk. If EZPW can spike into the 11's, I'll write a 12.5 call 4-6 months out... We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Hey all: EZPW has had a little bit of a run lately. No apparent news. I am going to guess that they will continue to have good earnings. Hopefully it will spike after that and I can sell some more covered calls! Got to be careful though...don't want to let them go too cheap. Anybody else have this/watch it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 Holding until $15 is my plan. The incentives for management show up after september, so that is when I expect the good earnings to start coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestead31 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 filing out that the company is going to issue a new convertible deal to repay existing expensive debt, and then use proceeds to buy stores in mexico and latin america. this is potentially big. the existing debt is super expensive, so paying that down will drive EPS, and you can see FCFS getting a growth multiple b/c of all their moves south of the border over the last few years. If EZPW is returning to growth mode after dealing with all the crap over the last few years, the multiple should improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 filing out that the company is going to issue a new convertible deal to repay existing expensive debt, and then use proceeds to buy stores in mexico and latin america. this is potentially big. the existing debt is super expensive, so paying that down will drive EPS, and you can see FCFS getting a growth multiple b/c of all their moves south of the border over the last few years. If EZPW is returning to growth mode after dealing with all the crap over the last few years, the multiple should improve. Not exactly a ringing endorsement by the market today of management's ability to create value through acquisitions. I understood part of the bull thesis to be that a rollup of pawn shops could be very accretive. Is the concern that, given the company's history in Mexico, it should be focused on the U.S., rather than the apparently planned acquisitions in Latin America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted June 28, 2017 Author Share Posted June 28, 2017 Market probably doesn't like the uncertainty of the pricing. Or just any announcement really, it seems like. Anyhow, the problem with Mexico wasn't the pawn stores, it as the money-lending operation. Expanding pawn operations into Mexico/LA would be a solid move for them and allow the operating leverage start working for them (just started making positive earnings in Mexico). Also, they have been denying deals unless they are super cheap, so hopefully this means they found good prices for these new deals. Or they relaxed their standards. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Market probably doesn't like the uncertainty of the pricing. Or just any announcement really, it seems like. Anyhow, the problem with Mexico wasn't the pawn stores, it as the money-lending operation. Expanding pawn operations into Mexico/LA would be a solid move for them and allow the operating leverage start working for them (just started making positive earnings in Mexico). Also, they have been denying deals unless they are super cheap, so hopefully this means they found good prices for these new deals. Or they relaxed their standards. We'll see. Yes, you are correct...I always understood the Mexican PAWNSHOPS to be profitable... The only way this announcement could be a negative is if current management is simple minded. I don't think that is the case. I am seriously going to consider topping off my position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragnarisapirate Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 This is potentially very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted June 28, 2017 Author Share Posted June 28, 2017 Anything in particular you are thinking ragnar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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