writser Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I would be surprised if they keep buying back shares at significantly higher levels. My hunch is that they would cancel the plan above $13 to allocate capital to better ideas and my assessment of management would change if they didn't. FWIW I sold roughly half my position. Because management appears to be concerned about their stock trading below IV the buybacks / tenders add so much value at even a modest discount. I would snap buy CKI at a 25%+ discount again but at a 5% discount it is far less attractive. For most of my holdings the buy/hold/sell ranges are a lot fuzzier. Though, to be fair, I have been following this name for only a year and my view might be biased due to what happened in the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 writser The NCIB does not force them to purchase shares (no minimum amount that they must purchase AFAIK), but gives them the flexibility to buy should the opportunity present itself. I was wondering how you calculated the FV of the shares - the shares are now around 11.8 and BV is around 13.3 (and perhaps slightly higher as this is the Q1 number) - that's a 12% discount ... would be glad to understand your calculation to see if I have missed something TIA Andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I agree with regards to the NCIB but Hielko mentioned an 'automated securities purchase plan'. Not sure what that is (I should probably look into that :) ) but I was just saying I would be surprised if they keep buying shares blindly. With regards to IV: I adjust MRQ BVPS for changes in portfolio value, subtract capitalized overhead and add back the pension surplus minus taxes. Adds up to about $12,90 now for a discount of ~8%. I also assign a value to the buyback / tender program (which changes IV but also depends on IV) but that value decreases rapidly as the discount goes to zero: buying back 10% SO at a 25% discount annually adds a lot of value, doing so at a 5% discount is far less valuable. I would say fair value is somewhere around $13 - $13,50 but my approach might be completely flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Thanks writser - I agree that the low end of FV is likely somewhere around BV; however this gives management zero credit for their capable capital allocation. I would say that x1.2 BV is reasonable, so I'd say the upper range of FV is about 16 (13.28 BV reported last quarter x 1.2), the middle point is 14.5. This puts us about 20% away from FV IMHO. The insider purchase at 11.38 gives me confidence that management believes the stock is still undervalued. With respect to ngthe share repurchases, given how much cash Clarke is holding, perhaps this is the best use they have, unless they have been increasing their Keck Seng position or buying something new ... time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 That sounds like a valid approach. I'm a bit more (too?) conservative because I don't have much confidence in my own ability to predict their future outperformance. Their portfolio is highly concentrated with a low turnover (small sample size) so I try to remain skeptic about their performance. This was a large position for me though, I am still holding a decent chunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I agree that it's better to be conservative with a large position in the sense of not losing a lot. I just think that given the recent massive buy-backs that likely bought out most short-term holders, the current new NCIB as well as the insider purchase it is likely that there is somewhat of a protection on the downside with there still being decent upside and a dividend while we wait. Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing the Q2 report as their latest mgmt presentation for the AGM (May 7th) didn't really provide any new info and then reassess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Insider bought 31,800 shares @ $11.37 Posted today on the TMX site. Interested to see who it was. It was Clarke. https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?menu_tickersearch=CKI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Someone bought 253K shares of CKI @ CAD 12 about an hour ago. Anyone know whether this was the company? I don't see anything on Canadian Insider TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Dufresne Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Someone bought 253K shares of CKI @ CAD 12 about an hour ago. Anyone know whether this was the company? I don't see anything on Canadian Insider TIA It was a cross trade at National Bank. Not sure if the are doing the buybacks for CKI. Thanks - I hope we find out who the buyer is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesPaul Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Interesting day! Perhaps some news (good or bad) should follow in the next while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Interesting day! Perhaps some news (good or bad) should follow in the next while. What happened? Sorry I don't own Clarke, but have in the past and try to keep up. I don't see any news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesPaul Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Interesting day! Perhaps some news (good or bad) should follow in the next while. What happened? Sorry I don't own Clarke, but have in the past and try to keep up. I don't see any news. Abnormal volume the last few days, insider transactions and as of this writing a share price of about $11.30, which in contrast to yesterdays high of $12.30 is quite a change -- especially with no real news as far as I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I nibbled a bit more at 11.40-11.41 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Yeah, it has been a bit volatile with larger-than-average volume the past few days. No clue what is going on but to put things in perspective: at the start of last week it was trading at the same level & NAV hasn't moved significantly. I'm not adding yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 My wild guess interpretation: Momentum players pushed the price to $12.30. Insider (Clarke?) bought a large chunk yesterday at $12.00 and again today at $11.75. This created a bull trap for momentum players, so they started dumping. Hence larger than normal volume and the big drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 June 4th transaction is now on SEDI. Clarke Inc Master Trust (the pension plan) bought 195,000 shares at $11.75. June 3rd transaction is not posted yet. Two prior transactions were also by the pension plan: May 26: 31,800 shares @ $11.37 May 12: 106,200 shares @ $11.20 I find it curious that they are buying shares in the pension plan (even though the company has NCIB approved and ready). I wonder what their game plan is. Are they in effect saying, the price is low enough for the pension plan to invest, but is not low enough to create value via buybacks? Any other ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Economically there is no real distinction for shareholders if Clarke buys the shares themselves or through the pension plan since they own 100% of the plans assets (and liabilities). There might be some specific regulatory reason that I don't know, or they just happen to have some cash in the plan that needs to be invested. Wouldn't try to read anything in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Clarke can cancel the shares. The pension plan can not. At the very least, that's one real distinction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I was wondering, but this is probably far-fetched, whether they can use this transaction in any way to siphon assets out of their pension plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Its smart. I think Buffett did this with BRK a few times. Correct me if I am wrong but, pension money can only really go into liquid type things because of fiduciary duties (e.g. bonds, stocks, and funds). They cannot buy whole businesses or hard assets etc. They may have some other restrictions too. Therefore, there's some actual benefit to using pension funds as a dollar in the pension fund is worth less than a dollar at the holdco because of the additional restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 They will likely have a tender and the pension will tender shares. Generates a small safe return for the pension and perhaps allows Clarke to buy in a big block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I was wondering, but this is probably far-fetched, whether they can use this transaction in any way to siphon assets out of their pension plan. I was wondering about that as well. Buy in the pension plan and hold. If the market price dips (e.g. in a broad market correction), flip the shares to the company at a lower price. This would reduce the plan surplus + generate a better return for the shareholders. I'm not sure if it makes any economic sense if you think about the company and the plan as one entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 They will likely have a tender and the pension will tender shares. Generates a small safe return for the pension and perhaps allows Clarke to buy in a big block. Clarke management arranged the block trades for the pension plan. They had an option to buy the same shares themselves. Why would they buy them at a higher price from the plan? I don't see how it makes any sense for the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Perhaps they can only buy a certain number of shares per day. I am unsure why, but they have done this before with other Clarke securities. I am sure it makes complete sense, but you would need to know all of the rules surrounding repurchase plans and pension assets. Perhaps a good question to email in. Clarke has so much excess cash. Not a bad place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3246196-clarke-inc-is-worth-considering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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