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Everything posted by LC
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Berkshire Hathaway - Break it up? - Size is the anchor of performance
LC replied to ander's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Two counterpoints: 1- capital allocation is a benefit across the LOBs. There is a benefit for railroads having access to insurance capital, for example 2- he will have to 'unwind' relationships which at his late stage in life (or if ever) he may be unwilling to do. what does his promise of a 'permanent' home really mean, then? -
I lean towards Infoisone's observation that in many cases, AI & ML methods are essentially statistical methodologies re-branded and applied to a a large dataset (and for sure, it is applied in some novel ways). Look at the prototypical KNN algorithm: it is essentially a combination of OLS and the classification problem. The advancement is the computing power (and thereby application to "large data"), but not the methodology. Most AI/ML is simply a marketing term to MBA-educated senior management.
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I was also very critical of IBKR management around the negative oil price fiasco. Petterffy shifted blame when it was 100% his fault that they cheaped-out on risk management systems. The only reason I use IBKR is margin rates - if any other large broker could match these rates, I would jump in a heartbeat.
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I heard he and Guy went out to first nations' land, drank a gallon of ayahuasca tea, and heard the universe as it whispered, "buy more Sears" ;D
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Billy Acks webinar:
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This was a good enough joke on its own :D
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As have these: https://i.redd.it/mlwvk5015l261.jpg Both are sad. There must be a compromise solution.
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To all the American members here, happy thxgiving!
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Schwab for most of my accounts except the big ones @ IBKR solely for the margin rates.
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Party over? Depression of the likes we have never seen before?
LC replied to Cardboard's topic in General Discussion
Bad analogy. A vaccine is not inevitable. Sending bits between computers is. This reminds me of that Buffett quote about if hindsight was worthwhile, librarians would be the best investors. -
To me - there is no acceptable commuting time. I have been WFH 100% for the past 5 years and would under no circumstances go back to a commute. I worked hard for 20 years to get to the point where I don't need a salary, I love my discipline and working with my colleagues. But if my employer asked me to commute at all, I would find another workplace or go back into academia. In fact the only way I would commute would be if I was teaching/lecturing in classroom.
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Wait, there’s a 9th Avenue?
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Never manage money for people who have less of it than you. To address the original post - the most "legit" way is via RIA but this may be too formalized for your means. You can manage I think up to 15 friends/family accounts "informally".
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We had a saying: the people in line at the bank with the least amount of money have the most amount of problems.
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And income mobility is better achieved through more regulations, more license, more barriers to entry, higher taxes, and more red tape? This is a very odd response to what I said. I was talking about income mobility, and you suddenly seem to believe that everything the government does is therefore about income mobility. (It isn't, you know. When the government prevents people from discarding cyanide into your drinking water, they're not doing so to increase income mobility.) That said, some government policies can help income mobility and some government policies can hurt it. Generally, America's pretty terrible at income mobility compared to almost all other western countries. I think it's a major contributor to the completely messed up political situation America is in right now. (If you like, read that to mean, "the rise of AOC" rather than "the rise of Trump". It's the opposite sides of the same "no income mobility" coin.) The correct response is “I have nothing to add”, because your initial post hit the nail on the head.
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Change your mind on RTX?
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Asset Based Investing vs Business Based Investing
LC replied to Gregmal's topic in General Discussion
You’ve slightly muddied the water because a team like the Mets generate earnings every year. A painting you is different as you only generate earnings upon sale. But still, all these generate cash flows albeit at different times (and therefore the discounting is different). How much would you pay for a gold bar which could Never Be Sold Again - ie guaranteed zero future cash flow. -
Asset Based Investing vs Business Based Investing
LC replied to Gregmal's topic in General Discussion
I see no difference between the two. Frankly I try to avoid using the term "asset". Marty Whitman goes on-and-on about how investors are misguided by the income statement and forget the balance sheet. Well they're the same damn thing (mostly), at least in my mind. "Assets" are just things which produce "earnings". The only thing that matters is how much earnings and for how long. And your description of "Asset" is also odd. Take canary wharf - incredibly valuable, but how much is it worth in the middle of mississippi or at the bottom of the atlantic? Using labels just promotes lazy work. "Durable" assets like real estate - how "durable" were they during COVID? Meanwhile tech/software did great because those "less durable" assets were actually...more durable? Screw the labels and just try to estimate the earnings streams -
I have asked myself this for sure. I do like the wireless component of T vs Comcast but I agree Comcast’s wired business is superior.
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Psychology of Misjudgment #16. Contrast-Misreaction Tendency
LC replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Well said.