giofranchi

Gio

They are likely selling down to around 1B. Check the 8K filing for the most recent earnings release. There is a letter attached at the end from Mason Morfit. Letter is last page here: http://valeant.q4cdn.com/d2673257-6028-4e57-a183-690d66644189.pdf?noexit=true Gio

Gio

Yes, it does! But the First National Bank was not the "average" bank of its time... Its balance sheet has always been rock solid, and I wouldn't be surprise to find out it was much less levered than the "average" bank's. ;) Gio

Thank you for your perspective, Glenn! Of course, I was not talking about “doing anything illegal”… when I said “false information”. Instead, by “false information” I meant providing its investors with too rosy a view about ALS’s future business prospects. If you are sanguine and optimistic, but you keep forecasts of future profitability in check and don’t promise something truly out of reach, you might be labeled “promotional”, but I don’t see anything too bad. I myself am always such an optimist about my business prospects… and, please, don’t ask my partners if they agree!! ;D ;D ;D On the other hand, if you go so far as to reach the point of promising something way too fanciful… even if it is not illegal… well, that would be a disservice to your fellow investors/partners, and shouldn’t be tolerated! I was wondering if you think ALS’s management is just a bit too much sanguine about their business, or if they are actually doing a disservice to investors. But I guess your last post is explicit enough! ;) Gio

Well, imo what’s promotional and what’s not, in a presentation about a business that’s radically transforming itself, is… at least very subjective. False information, on the other hand, is not subjective at all. Therefore, I want to know: are we talking about something subjective, or about something that can be objectively proven false? Gio

Thank you, Gary! I have read those articles… And didn’t find anything I would label as “false” or “misleading”… But, who knows? I might be missing something here: that’s why I asked Glenn, who seems to have sold his ALS shares because very concerned about the integrity of management. Gio

Well, actually I was interested in knowing your opinion on this matter… I mean: have you ever find false or at least misleading information about ALS’s business situation… anywhere? Whether in presentations, or in newspaper articles, or in any other form of advertising? In other words, you simply don’t like promotional behavior, or have you caught ALS’s management, in an effort to promote the quality of their business, delivering false information? Hope my question is clear enough. :) Thank you, Gio

Dazel, Any hint where you are redeploying the proceeds? Some new great ideas? ;) Thank you, Gio

http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/05/08/altius-minerals-post-mortem-part-2/ Glenn, you know the importance I attach to ownership/management (rightly or otherwise…). Therefore, I would really like to understand your skepticism about ALS’s management right now. And my question is this one: By “for stock promotion purposes” do you mean ALS’s management has deceived investors? In other words, has management lied about the true state of ALS’s business situation today? Or by “for stock promotion purposes” you simply mean that management is putting too much attention on good developments in ALS’s business situation, overlooking existing risks and uncertainties? Thank you very much for your time! :) Gio

Yes! It seems too easy… except, of course, it is not! ;) And I would add this: if you keep some cash, volatility is your friend! Because it will enable you to take advantage of market’s short term view, while you instead stay put for the long run. Gio PS hohi, many thanks for the great work, as usual! :)

Gary, certainly I have invested in BRK. But I have no position now. Among my “qualitative” criteria are: - A owner/manager who can be at the helm for the next 15-20 years: the only owner/manager who probably doesn’t satisfy this criteria in my firm’s portfolio right now is Mr. John Malone… who nonetheless is 10 years younger than Mr. Buffett. - A business that is still relatively small: the only business that probably doesn’t satisfy this criteria in my firm’s portfolio right now is VRX… which nonetheless is much smaller than BRK. I know Mr. Buffett is a genius. I just have an hard time believing that an 83 years old man can grow at high rates a $315 billion company for many years into the future… Gio

Just to be even clearer: Only because I am willing to pay more than you for what I like, doesn’t mean I don’t put great emphasis on valuation. Who cares? I never ask if someone is replaceable or not… I don’t care! I only look for what I like. Is it there? Is it not? That’s all I am interested in. If I find what I like, I invest. Otherwise, I pass. Never said I am outstanding… Probably, I am average at best… And my results will therefore be average. But I will always do only the things I understand and judge reasonable and rational. Cheers, Gio

Gio

Tom, First of all I was not saying you didn’t read every post of mine with carefulness… I was only referring to my last post you commented in this thread! Well, you said I was just quoting other successful entrepreneurs, while instead I obviously start from my daily experience, and only look for confirmation in the experiences of other people more successful than me! That’s what I do. And I think it was very clearly expressed in my post… This is the reason why I thought you read that last post of mine not very carefully… That’s all! :) Second: many many many companies simply survive… Top management is at the top because they have a flawless track record?!?! You truly believe that?! That’s not my experience at all!! I know, as you say, that a lot of people on this board have connections with a lot of entrepreneurs… but I have to ask: do YOU work on a daily basis with entrepreneurs? Because so many of the things you say make me wonder how two business experiences like yours and mine can be so much different! :o My experience is that a lot, way too much!, of top management is arrogant, overbearing, and too self conscious to be truly reliable, and got where they are basically through personal or political connections. Others have merits: for instance, they were very good technicians, or very good sales people… but unfortunately lack those requisites as strategic thinkers and in allocation of capital that are necessary in a CEO to make almost any company truly successful… Result: I know a lot of top managers for whom I have very low esteem… Maybe, where you live things are different… ??? Third: you say that what I look for is vague? I would say “qualitative”… but the characteristics I look for in a manager are very clear (at least to me!)… far from vague! Fourth: I am only saying that what I do in investing is driven by my experience in business… I have never said it is the way to go!! Believe me, I have read many books on those psychological stuff you very often point me to… It is not really true I am unwilling to consider counterarguments… Actually, I am here on the board exactly because I want to hear the reasonings of people who disagree with me! ;) Those counterarguments, though, must be extremely strong to somehow convince me… Because it is extremely difficult for me to wear a hat while managing my business, and to change it while investing its fcf… You might understand that to manage two different ways of doing things is much more difficult and time consuming than to manage only one! Even if I am open to admit that two ways might be better than one. But the question is: how much better? Does the reward truly justify the effort? Gio

It's around 2% - 2.5% until 2016 and something like 0.5% in 2017. I think those numbers are pro forma for B&L. In their latest presentation (on page 31) they define 85% of their products as “durable”. And durable products are: - Physician Dispensed ($1.5 billion in sales) - Consumer Products ($1 billion in sales) - Emerging Markets ($3.1 billion in sales) - Off-Patent Rx Brands ($1.7 billion in sales) The remaining 15%, classified as “non durable”, is: - On-Patent Rx Pharma ($1.3 billion in sales) Total sales $8.5 billion. Gio

I agree with Dazel on China. Don’t forget that Mr. Chanos’ (one of the most vocal bear on China for the last few years!) refrain about China is: Don’t invest in China, but trade with China! And it is simple, but summarize the state of things with China right now concisely, yet powerfully. And who is playing that refrain better than ALS? ;) Gio

Will The Last Businessman To Leave France Turn Out The Lights? by Mr. Charles Gave Gio Daily+5.7.14.pdf

I always like OAK very much! It is just that in Italy I must give away in taxes almost 50% of their distributions… If they didn’t pay any dividend at all, my firm’s investment in OAK would be huge! ;) Gio

Hey! I admit I have never looked carefully into Tyco, I have never listened to even one conference call of theirs, nor read an AR of theirs. Therefore, it is really hard for me to confute such a comparison… Yet, I repeat: I have listened to Mr. Pearson speaking in all VRX conference calls of the last two years, and I have read much of the documentation they have published: the result today is I like the method, I like the discipline, and I like Mr. Pearson’s character. Of course, I might be wrong. But, if I am a poor judge of people, why should I be successful in business? ??? Gio

Imo this makes no sense at all! Anyone who runs a business knows it is method and discipline you look for. Not results! It is character you should be looking for. A good track record is not to be overlooked, but it is just the frost on the cake. Whenever you find the right method, the right discipline, the right character, and they are not easy at all to find!, you’d better partner with that person. At a fair price, of course, always at a fair price! This is how I do business in general, and investing makes no exception. Gio

Whenever you find that divine combination... let us know!! ;) Cheers, Gio

Mmm… I am not so sure… I think you must always judge the quality of the people you are partnering with… If you partner with great people, 1.4xBVPS, which in theory might look expensive, in the long run will prove to be a great bargain. On the other hand, if you partner with inept or fraudulent people, 0.8xBVPS, which in theory might look a great bargain, in the long run will prove to be expensive. Gio

Yes... You might be right... Anyway, I would be very pleased with a 3%-4% organic growth at VRX. ;) And don’t forget VRX constantly buys products they think they can improve and better advertise and promote. Companies like P&G and Unilever don’t benefit from this kind of “activist” approach to managing newly acquired products. Gio

I think the BVPS at $10 is a bit low… Anyway, it doesn’t matter: 1.4xBVPS is still an attractive price, if you mean to invest in something with ALS's charachteristics for the long-term. Gio