giofranchi

Well, when you control the great majority of the earnings of an industry, all else being equal, you also should have the means to improve the value proposition of your products and/or services much faster than the competition, putting between you and the competition ever increasing distance. The examples you brought up are both examples in which something was very different instead: management. Steve Jobs stole all Blackberry’s earnings and Jeff Bezos is stealing the majority of other retailers’ earnings. I guess no moats can protect you, if you try competing with guys like Jobs and Bezos! Because they’ll find a way to render your products and/or services obsolete no matter the advantage you enjoy at the beginning. This being said, I don’t see the risk of anything that might render the iPhone obsolete on the horizon yet. Therefore, all the smartphone industry earnings in the hands of a good enough management (though most probably no visionaries nor geniuses) are good enough for me. We will see! Cheers, Gio

Imo the iPhone business is / has been the best business in the world. I would not compare it to neither NOV nor DE. Therefore the question I ask is not about AAPL stock multiple, but about the iPhone business: is it the best business out there still, or those days are gone forever? If you think the latter is true, why? Cheers, Gio

Healthcare at least is a field in which there is still lots of room for improvement imo. Cheers, Gio

I think the iPad Pro is a very good teaching device. And AAPL has clearly gone a long way in that direction, which much further to go. Cheers, Gio

We know you have lofty expectations for AAPL future business results (because you have said so). Could you share some details of your thesis with the board? Thank you, Gio

This is also the question I ask: is it a short term problem, or the smartphone industry has peaked? I tend to believe it is just short term: it is estimated that by 2020 34 billion devices will be online (http://uk.businessinsider.com/34-billion-devices-will-be-connected-to-the-internet-by-2020-2016-1)… It is difficult to think the smartphone industry is declining from here. If the smartphone industry is not in a secular decline, AAPL will do fine: it controls 94% of the industry earnings, and to control practically all the earnings of the industry you compete in is the strongest competitive advantage there is. Cheers, Gio

Buying a selection of companies, instead, forces you to think about business. And there are at least two reasons why I believe that thinking about business might be useful: 1) It helps you manage your own business much more effectively; 2) It is great fun! ;) Cheers, Gio

ABT, which I think of as a diversified collection of healthcare businesses, has returned 7% compounded from December 31, 1999, to December 31, 2015, dividends excluded... And it has paid on average a larger dividend than the S&P500. Cheers, Gio

9 years instead of 15 years... Cheers, Gio 2015_-_liberty_media_corp_investor_day_long_term_returns.pdf

Is it a fund you have invested in? A fund you work for? Or your fund? ;) Cheers, Gio

Fairfax has increased BVPS at a CAGR of 6.5% since the end of 1999. That is after fees AND after taxes. As we can see in the picture in attachment, the S&P500 has returned 3.73% compounded annual since March 2000. This of course doesn't consider dividends (neither those distributed by Fairfax nor those distributed by the S&P500). Not quite the spread you are looking for... But not bad! Also the Malone's family of business should have performed pretty well... though I don't have the precise numbers. Cheers, Gio

So, BAC has declined 23% in the first month of 2016 apparently without any true reason, it is very cheap… But it could get even cheaper… This is basically what you are saying, isn’t it? Cheers, Gio

I don't know... The upside potential, if compared to the downside risk, doesn't look bad to me... But maybe there are even better ways. I just don't know them. Cheers, Gio

Surely it could. But will it be a permanent pick up, or just a fluctuation around a downtrend? “The one big idea” Watsa has been talking for a while is that we will have a secular downtrend in inflation until this global deleveraging is over. We will see. Cheers, Gio

--Mr. Soros Mr. Watsa has been saying this all along, hasn't he? ;) Cheers, Gio

Thank you very much for posting! :) Cheers, Gio

Soros sounds more and more in Watsa's camp: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/george-soros-says-too-early-to-buy-stocks-after-shorting-sp-500-2016-01-21 Cheers, Gio

WFC is the only bank I follow closely and I like it very much at these prices. Given the fact I think interest rates will stay low for some time, I will probably wait a bit more to buy WFC… But I definitely think at these prices WFC is a good opportunity in the long run, whatever interest rates do. Cheers, Gio

Maybe unsurprisingly, I find myself in full agreement with Felix Zulauf's macro view. We'll see. Me too… But I still think macro investing is poor business. One of the most important feature of good business is predictability. And the predictability of macro investing, at least as far as timing is concerned, is very low, almost non-existent. Therefore, though I might agree with Mr. Zulauf, I would not invest with him. Cheers, Gio

Thank you very much for your feedback! Cheers, Gio

Thank you! :) Do you see AAPL ever becoming appealing to companies? Or will it remain most probably "just" a consumer story? Cheers, Gio

Hi rkbabang, could you tell us a bit more about your background? Are you a software engineer, right? If so, do you still write code for a living, or are a full time investor now? Thank you, Gio

I thought your results as an investor have been quite good until now… Why do you want to change something that has worked very well so far? Cheers, Gio

What's the purpose of posting something like this? Gio is not even an active part in that particular discussion in this topic. John, In previous years I have always reported the overall increase in BV of my companies, simply because that’s what I am interested about and that’s what I keep track of very easily. The return from my stock market investments alone is more difficult to calculate. I was told the BV of my companies doesn’t make sense… Therefore, this year I have not posted any result. Just in case you care, the BV of my companies is up +4% for 2015, while the return from my stock market investments alone are in the red probably high single digit. Cheers, Gio

This is very impressive! With a large position in VRX, AAPL that has gone nowhere, the Malone’s family of businesses that have appreciated very little, a 20% return in a year the market is flat means really a great job from the rest of your portfolio! Would you share with us which were your best performers? Thank you, Gio