Spekulatius

House flipping seems like a risky and low return sort of business. Imagine if they get stuck chuck full with housing inventory in a downturn. They also compete with their main customers (realtors), which I think will quickly become a problem. Redfins model seems like a better one to me, but they are struggling too.

Why do tower cos have most to gain out of curiosity? Well, 5G will need lots of towers, because of reach limitations. I am not a physics professor, but generally higher frequencies means less scatter (which means line of sight needed) and higher atmospheric absorption. I think the atmosphere is pretty opaque for frequencies above ~50 GHZ due to water absorption. 5G operates below that but absorption sure will go up at lower frequencies already. Water content in the atmosphere differs with weather conditions and of course there is rain.

So they lend money for 13-18% interest rates to real estate developers. What could go wrong? I know it’s a snarky response, but this seems to ave written very high risk all over it.

FWIW I spoke with IR shortly after the quarter and she definitively said that their estimate for CECL impact WAS included in their guidance. Whether you believe that or not is up to you. Other assumptions that went into the guidance were as follows: 1) Originally built in 2 rate increases, instead got rate decreases - $40mm reduction 2) Mark to market on held to sale - $50mm reduction 3) $500mm lower A/R than expected - $40mm reduction This has been my 2nd biggest losing position in my time investing, and I'm still mulling over whether to sell it and take the short-term loss or whether to hang tight as it seems that A/R is finally inflecting upwards. Why wouldn’t you sell it, take the short term loss and rebuy it 31 days later? You could buy a similar stock I stead, if you believe the sector takes of. Unless you believe there is an immediate catalyst, taking a short term loss seems to be a good idea. At least that’s what I would be doing.

I think he has a point. Microsoft Azure does not even have the highest security clearance that is a requirement for this contract, yet they still won. Seems somewhat fishy to me. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/microsoft-wins-major-defense-cloud-contract-beating-out-amazon.html Also it is illegal of or a government procurement officers to have a preference.

Added some MEGACPO.MX as it mysteriously went down ~4% intraday. Another recent buy is HDG.AS ( leading manufacturer of blinds/ window coverings) , a Geoff Gannon / Focusedcompounding Puck.

FWIW, as far as telecom/broadband/video is concerned I think the US/CA and to some extend Mexico is the exception from the rule, while Europe is the norm. In Europe for example telecom and TV was run by state owned monopolies, which even when privatized did not allow for escalating prices like in the US. TV for example was free in Europe, even satellite TV, it was solely ad supported. Once you start there, it becomes pretty hard to charge the equivalent of $100/month for it.

CCU is the one from the list that I am familiar with. They have been struggling due to issues in Argentine, before the hell broke lose in Chile. Chile has been trading at a premium compared to the rest of the continent for a long time and that premium may not be justified any more. I think the assumption that this unrest may just blow over is unjustified.

I never bought this, but been involved in other medtech spinoffs , I can definitely state that this is a tough business for investors. From my experience, many startups manage do get some product in the market and some revenue trajectory, but often the costs outrun the revenues and the increased cash burn does them in.

More clarity from one of the horses mouth: https://www.sfcu.org/stanford-federal-credit-union-announces-partnership-google/ It looks like a standard CU account with a GUI/ mobile wrapper from Google. It is interesting they they chose to partner with a CU. I wonder how they deal with the affiliation restriction for a CU. You have to be local or work for one of the many Company’s on that affiliate list or use a “backdoor” in order to join a CU.

Killing PACB may actually be an Ok outcome for Illumina, which is a scary thought for PACB shareholders. The Brits wouldn’t care too much about killing an US company either.

Apparently they raise capital for the insurance business, which means the sub that holds the insurance company (together with a partner) needs to raise capital too. hopefully this doesn’t mean that Westaim needs to raise capital..

^ LoL, the milked the business until the cows came home. Then they went teats up.

Aren’t these guys late with the Q3 financials? Last years Q3 was filed on 11/8 and we are a couple of days past that.

My thinking too. The streaming business will only turn profitable in a couple of years (2024?) and will cost a lot of money before that. I also don’t think Netflix will be easy to topple.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-round-global-factory-network-012002032.html Interesting, first a factory in China and now roughly 12 month later a factory in Germany. Going right into the Lions den. LOL.

Based on my read of the annual report, they are pushing Canadian Whiskey (Wisers) and the Ungava (gin) brand internationally. I think if one of these brands takes off, Pernod Ricard will buy them out in a hurry. Canadian whiskey may have been under the radar, but it seems to be gaining status, similar to what happened with Irish Whiskey 10 years or so ago. Gin is pretty hot in spirits. Corby seems to be impacted y weakness in w8nes, most of which are distributed for PR. Their own brands are actually doing better. I see this is a parking pace for money where I don’t think I can lose all that much (famous last words) and have some income (dividend) and upside if a buyout were to occur (unlikely but possible). I bought both the Wiser and Ungava gin after my meeting. I thought it tasted "okay". Nothing distinctive about it. They seem to be excited about the Gin. Spek, thoughts on owning DD versus this? I prefer DD with its higher return on capital and pricing power. DD is an entirely different “bucket” then Corby. I sold most of the DD I own in retirement accounts for a quick gain again, but bought back some CVTA. Both CVTA and DD are similar in they they are still restructuring so the true profitability is somewhat masked and in my opinion unknown. I thin they both will take a while to play out hence my tactical buys and sells. DD has a very nice product portfolio, but it is somewhat one the economically sensitive side impacted by the trade wars. I think it also remains to be seen how much organic growth they can generate. One of my concerns is that Breen relies too much on cost cutting , as alluded before (based my experience with Tyco spinoffs back then). Circling back to Corby, I like the liquor business due to pricing power. I also own a substantial (for me) position in CUERVO.MX as a secular growth play on tequila.

Based on my read of the annual report, they are pushing Canadian Whiskey (Wisers) and the Ungava (gin) brand internationally. I think if one of these brands takes off, Pernod Ricard will buy them out in a hurry. Canadian whiskey may have been under the radar, but it seems to be gaining status, similar to what happened with Irish Whiskey 10 years or so ago. Gin is pretty hot in spirits. Corby seems to be impacted by weakness in wines, most of which are distributed for PR. Their own brands are actually doing better. I see this is a parking pace for money where I don’t think I can lose all that much (famous last words) and have some income (dividend) and upside if a buyout were to occur (unlikely but possible).

It’s interesting that this ETF is near the 2009 low, yet nothing looks really cheap. I looked at BCH and it trades at around 11x earnings and a 2x P/B. I think I‘d rather buy WFC. If I were a millennial, I would say “meh”.

Bought a few shares today to park some funds. After reading the annual report and seeing how intertwined that business is with Pernod Ricard (46% owner), is there a reason why they don’t take Corby out and streamline their operations that way? Pernod Ricard is richly valued and they are strategic, so it’s surprising to me that this is still a separate company. I think it’s just a matter of time until it is taken out. Dividend yield is ~6% someone gets paid to wait.

If it could be Russian Roulette - where is the bullet? A few degrees warmer is going to kill us all? It’s not going to kill us all, but it can kill a lot of people directly and indirectly. Not to worry, most of us will be long dead before the consequences set in.

It’s interesting to think about who you are up against, if you try short term or daytrading.

Actually BAM has shown losses in their investment, but I am not sure they have shown ever realized losses. I entwined before that their GGP investment is under water and this is what they said in their latest 10-q: I am seeing this the same way then Greg. I am not bearish on BAM, I just don’t like as much as some alternatives I am seeing where I think I have a better idea idea about fundamentals. As for showing gains on disposal, it may well be true they thry he er taken a loss, but that could be because they keep the losers, which is actually not they difficult in a Complex structure and when assets grow a lot. I think their GGP investment for example is something where they need to paddle pretty hard upstream to come out ahead.

Here is an excerpt from an interesting article from Taleb: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370?s=21 I like the way he thinks about risk generally.

Besides, Lehman and Bear Stevens had high insider ownership too. It helps, but it’s no panacea. BAM for me is a bridge too far - I simply don’t like the GP/Lp like structure and the high leverage at the subs. It can lead to wrong incentives and has done so many times in the past. I agree it is very profitable for the GP when done wright. Each it’s own. I like BAM’s focus on infrastructure assets, but there are other ways to get this exposure.