Spekulatius

Hielko’s YRIV is a good guess. https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/YRIV#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJjYW5kbGVXaWR0aCI6My4yODg1Mzc1NDk0MDcxMTQ3LCJ2b2x1bWVVbmRlcmxheSI6dHJ1ZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJjcm9zc2hhaXIiOmZhbHNlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJjYW5kbGUiLCJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJsaW5lYXIiLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSwiZGlzcGxheSI6IllSSVYiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInRvcCI6MH19LCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjEsImJhc2UiOiJ5ZWFyIiwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOnsicGVyaW9kIjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSJ9fSwibGluZVdpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VkIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiIsImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwic3ltYm9scyI6W3sic3ltYm9sIjoiWVJJViIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJZUklWIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6MSwiYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoiZGF5In19fV0sImN1c3RvbVJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7InZvbCB1bmRyIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24gVm9sdW1lIjoiI0ZGMzMzQSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX19fQ%3D%3D

It is interesting that at a late stage of a bubble, you can see IPO’s still popping, while older issues are weakening. That’s when you know that liquidity is spilling from one vessel to another, but not much additional liquidity is coming in. It almost looks like that is what is happing right now.

Might be fraud too. A small group of customers trade and otherwise illiquid stock amongst each other and bidding it up, as well as providing the illusion of liquidity, then pull the rug and let IBKR hold the bag. The money got transferred so to speak to other accounts which are of course are with another broker. Automated systems probably can get fooled by this. I believe there was such a case in Asia with IBKR a while ago.

It seems that you tax investment earnings twice - one time by putting a tax on investment earnings (1/3) and the second time, but assuming a company tax rate of 27%.

Freakonomics podcast about Spotify, the music industry with the founder Daniel Ek: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/spotify/ I don’t own this, but I am impressed by the founder. Very much focused on user experience and very down to earth. Listening to the podcast is time well spent if you are interested in SPOT or any other company in this sector.

Yes, sports programming keeps cable TV alive. There is an untapped (IMO) market to give the customer exactly what they want. Sell subscription to special events like soccer world cup, Olympic Games, European championships, Formula one seasons, NASCAR etc. I would gladly pay for these events, if I can view them the way I want to and the subscription is reasonably priced. it’s similar to the unbundling in the music industry. Recording these events gets cheaper and streaming is dirt cheap, so I think this will eventually come. Eventually business owners like Formula one can do this all by themselves, no middle man needed and keep more $ in their pocket. Same with FIFA, Nascar etc. Starwars a great asset for Disney and I think they got a bargain. The content will be monetizable for a long time, they can monetize this in theme parks, video games, eventually virtual reality....Disney is already the Berskhire of best in class entertainment IP and assets.

Bought some WRK ( paper packaging co). Selloff in this sector due to concerns over pricing pressure . We will see, some of these stocks have become cheap and the industry has consolidated a lot. Packaging is one of these sectors where rollups are actually fairly low risk and the rollup model seems to work. Cardboard might like this stock :-)

Why do you think self-producing content is opposed to the idea of being an aggregator? I don't think it is. It's because they can aggregate so much demand that it makes sense for them to self-produce (can spread fixed costs over a larger base). They also get pretty good and fast feedback on what viewers watch. That alone is giving them and edge to produce the right content, imo.

This is a personal view, but the 15% is now being expressed as 95% CR and 7% return on investments. I see no issue in targeting those metrics over the long term. What they've achieved in the past doesn't have to be a guide to what they aspire to in the future, especially when they've sworn not to repeat the biggest mistake of all (the huge naked hedge). That said, I couldn't care less that they target 15% and I find it surprising that people on here focus so hard on it. That's not a criticism, it's just that I have never had the sense that they manage towards the 15% goal in a bad way. Their mistakes are plenty, but they are so long term in approach that personally I don't think the mistakes stem from stretching to get to 15% - and that's the main negative of having a public goal. So I just ignore it, and focus on whether I think 95% and 7% are achievable (probably and probably not, respectively) and whether I'd be happy owning Fairfax at the current price if the ROE was say 10% over the long haul (yes with bells on). I regard the 15% ROE as an aspirational goal at this point. What irks me more than FFH not even close to reaching this goal is the increasing share count (by 2.4M shares last year) that shalab pointed out. It’s even more irritating with all the talk about Singleton and quite frankly, it looks like he is talking one thing and doing just the opposite. Did someone ask a question regarding the share dilution and how it squares with the talk about buybacks? There might be a good explanation for this, but it’s odd that it’s not addressed in the annual report or in the shareholders meeting.

https://www.theafricareport.com/11855/jumia-investors-may-regret-chasing-an-elusive-dream/ Getting a logistics network operating in Afrika won’t come cheap.

Except that Marvel/Star Wars are not kids stuff. But how many times can you watch the same movies? Disney+ looks like the type of thing you subscribe to for a month 1-2 times per year to watch a certain thing then unsubscribe. Unless you have kids. Exactly. The greatest thing about the streaming services is that they are so easy to cancel.

Why does it matter? Nobody buys this stock for its book value.

Can you elaborate? The company is growing at a very fast rate for any business with $750 million in revenue, and has not really monetized a significant portion of its user base. I laid out a decent bullish argument (which I'm not 100% sure of). I'd love to hear why Pinterest is absolutely not worth $16 per share. It may be the case that Pinterest only raised $150 million to get a high valuation. They would not be the first or last VC-backed company to do so. The other side of that coin is that they have not needed to raise funding since they raised capital nearly 2 years ago, which is actually kind of a good thing right? I'm not arguing that Pinterest is going to join the FANGs or anything, but what could it be? A second-tier social media platform in a sub-industry with high levels of profitability at scale, and high incremental profitability with minimal additional capital required to grow? Broeb22 - I just wanted to thank you for the discussion here. I don’t think that PINS is a straightforward value here, but at least the IPO valuation looks sensible here. I believe it is a niche business with relatively easy monetization. I can see this being attractive from both the users as well as the advertisers POV. I signed up for IPO shares Fidelity, but not holding my breath here. I might buy some in the aftermarket, depending on prices. FWIW, the reinstated my account the next morning 8).

Thanks for your continued posts. I have purchased one of these companies recently (QFSOC) and so far, so good.

Belated welcome to this board and a great first (and second post). The archives are here: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/archives/ Search from within the top menu bar works, but is a bit fickle.

Pretty good commentary from the shareholder meeting https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/blog/notes-from-toronto

Feel free to throw me and everyone else under the bus, but you jackasses should probably remove FFH from that list...Prem's given you nearly 35 years of outperformance. Yeah there have been periods where he has under performed...even long stretches...but he's walked the walk and talked the talk better than anyone else other than Buffett. Even Buffett had a tough time the last few years, and he's as close to perfect in the industry as anyone has ever seen! So if your bar is Buffett and only Buffett, then that is a statistical population of one! If your bar is ethical, honest investment company CEO's that you can trust your money with and have a good chance of outperforming for the long-term with interest aligned, it may be nominally higher and Prem would be in that group. Cheers! "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."

6% dividend? What am I missing? Sorry, typo, the dividend yield is 3.9%.

The interim CEO has to be defensive, he can’t make commitments on behalf of the new CEO. I ams Ort of Ok with the asset cap. It certainly prevents them from doing something stupid late in the cycle and thy can buy back shares quite cheaply. Organic reinvestment is preferable, but I am not sure it’s a great idea to put the foot on the gas now. if they can continue to pay an almost 4% dividend and buy back 6% of their outstanding shares this year as well and remain overcapitalized, I am quite happy. (Edited for typo)

I bumped up my WFC position on Friday. I used proceeds from sale of my FITB and cash. Worse case, I collect ever rising dividend checks. It’s now my largest bank position. I also bought a little CARS.

Yep, there is only one. People probably should pin this on the wall. The second comings PDH, FFH, SYTE and BOMN probably won’t work out. The issue with investing as an LP and investment fund is the 2/20 (or whatever it is) carry. In the Long run, it will lead to a huge underperformance. I have seen calculations where if Buffet had chosen 2/20, the returns for LP would be so far less shareholders, it isn’t even funny and Buffet would own the majority of BRK by a wide margin. That’s another reason why BRK is great, it’s a very low cost way to invest. There will be many great managers out there, which will perform well in he future, but I am willing to bet that they look like the second coming of Buffet, or BRK - they will do it in their own way.

The SAAS model does not apply here, because for a customer, there is virtually no switching cost. One can use Uber and I can use a competitor 30 min later without issues. These business are great for the customer, but it remains to be seen what the ultimate profitability will look like.

The investor day presentation is very well made. Now we have Disney+ for kids and teens (animations, Star wars, superhero’s , documentaries ) Hulu - regular streaming TV, competing with Netflix ESPN+ streaming for sports fans. Looks like investors may be good for another 20 years if this works out.

I think any drug that targets amyloid are highly suspect at this point, because there have been quite angewiesen failures targeting this pot. disease path. I think Biogen has one more drug (BEN2401 Phase II) targeting amyloid while the other drugs target other pathways. Alzheimer is high risk/ high reward without question. yes...my guess is safety and some efficacy could be a homerun in that space? there are a lot of other drugs in the pipeline though and the drop has made the stock fairly interesting (though trying to wrap my head around the figures) does anyone have a feel for BIIB's historical failure rate? The failure of the two Alzheimer drugs erased ~$20B in market cap or 30% of the company’s value. Given that their existing franchise in MS is quite durable and that the rest of the pipeline looks quite promising, this seems a bit too much. For me, it is cheap enough for a first buy - I got some shares today after hours. I have followed them on and off for years. This is one of the companies that got the biotech business started and they have shown to be quite adept over time. I note that quite a few drug companies have become cheap lately - GILD, ABBV, BMY (to be merged with CELG) and I think there are opportunities in this sector.

Lyft looks really terrible now compared to Uber. Uber doesn’t look pretty either but shows economies of scale, while Lyft basically doesn’t. I can see why Lyft is selling off, it’s not just supply and demand of shares in that sector but inferior economics relative to Uber.