Spekulatius

Time for an activist. LOL

One thing to note is that CHTR bumps against it self imposed leverage limit if 4.5x EBITDA), actual vale is 4.47). So, I don’t think we see a lot of buybacks this ongoing quarter.

Fidelity will not allow orders ( except selling existing positions) for OTC stocks which do not post financials with the SEC, even if those companies post financials on their website. Similar with Wells Trade. I used to have Etrade account which could buy anything a few years ago, but I don’t know if that’s still the case. IB lets you buy almost anything OTC but there are a few stocks which for one reason or another, don’t show up in their “ product” using search etc list and hence can’t be traded. The $300M market cap minimum strikes me as arbitrary and if I would deal with microcaps a lot , I would just move to another broker.

^ I am not sure a third party middleman like NLSN will be needed in the online ad space with GOOG and FB ( and others) providing a similar service. With online advertising, the linkage between ads and the action is far closer than in the offline world.

The stack of bank notes called SHLD is still on fire with no way to extinguish the burn. That’s really all one needs to know about Sears stock.

There is also key man risk. I interpret some of Elon’s erratic behavior recently as an indication of “ burnout”, which given the scope and intensity of Elon’s work style almost seems inevitable sooner or later.

CMCSA results in Q2 should have laid many concerns about the impact if cord cutting to rest. I found the increase in FCF the biggest positive ( up 16% ) which is mostly due to less Capex going into set top boxes ( internet only customers only need a router, which is comparatively cheap and simple). Leverage is only 2.1 x EBITDA or less than half!s CHTR. They can easily afford to buy SkY for cash and deleverage for 2-3 years and be back to 2x leverage. I don’t have an idea either why they do not prefer to buy back stock for 7 x EBITDA rather than buying Sky for almost twice as much, but I think they either want to futureproof the company or have a plan to go big into Europe and possibly expand Sky into the US. I don’t know, but the owners of Comcast have shown strong skills in acquiring and growing assets, so I hope they get this right too.

So they lost the AMZN and the WMT card and will probably the BJ Wholesale card as well. Looks like a no- moat melting ice cube to me. Tangible book is $16.5 - liquidation value would’ve above this because card balances are worth more than par. However, is this really cheap?

A 2% cash back card doesn’t really make any profit on transactions, if the balance is paid off every month. the interchange fees are in thr 2.5% range, so thr cash back eats most of the margins. It may make a profit, if customers keep a high interest rate balances on those cards.

Sent chemicals and early cycle business? I rarely have seen large gains with chemicals late in the cycle. I have a soft spot for BASF (BAS.DE). The first stock I ever “owned” via long term rights (Optionsscheine).

If a story is interesting, engaging and well written, does it even matter if it is true or not?

A lot of option-ality here.

I felt CMCSA results were very good and highlighting the fact that if the broadband business is healthy, the video subscriber losses don’t matter much. I feel that CMCSA is very undervalued here, given the strength in execution and how well they operate their assets. I do have a significant position in CMCSA stock ( way larger than CHTR) so I am talking my book here.

I think the economics are the same after a share buyback from released capital that is not needed any more to support the WMT business. Still, this amounts to a partial liquidation and I think management is spinning this a bit. Not looking to change the thread intend, but has anybody looked at COF here? Looks like a pretty hard driven outfit and us cheaper by some metrics than SYF.

I noticed the tank top girls as well in the earnings presentation. I don’t really recall any other details.

It's at $91 now. Will probably be volatile over the next few days as the arbs rush for the exits and GARP investors start to come in. Doesn’t matter. I still feel that China had no incentive to approve this, given the current climate. anyways, I bought a small position yesterday and would be willing to buy more. I hope NXPI’s management didn’t drop thr ball operating the company due to the merger. The company should be able to operate pretty well on their own, as they have done so far. Yea I'd wait a few days for the dust to settle. That's typically my rule of thumb in situations like this. Then again I dont always follow my rule of thumb but we'll see. This whole situation reminded me of this It was pretty much what we thought it was. 127.50 or around 90 short term. Wonder if Elliot still owns this. With their whole "worth $135 standalone" spiel. Always thought they were phonies.

Right think earnings/share growth will decelerate or go close to zero, but not going negative. if the operating margin declines from 44% to 35%, that’s is an ~20% decline in margins. In order to compensate for this with higher revenues, they will need to increase their revenues by 25%, which seems doable. This very much will depend on thr ramp for the expense spent and how revenues develop.

Looks like revenue growth in the 20% range and expense growth much faster than revenues until 2019 at least. FB takes a long term view here apperntly and this comes at a cost.

I agree with above. This will be a good buy around $90. Oth electrification and self driving cars are long term tailwinds.

Added some more at $165 and change. Looks like a few people need to change their underwear all of a sudden.

I prefer to use my CC for online payment rather than PP, due to cash back, extra warranties and other perks. I have used PP only twice during the 7 years I have an account and honestly don’t see a point from a user perspective. I feel like a large player will shake up the payment market by completely circumventing the existing payment networks offering a cheaper solution, but I have been thinking this for years. Large companies like FB, GOOG or Apple with their huge user base should be able to do this, but I am guessing the relatively small benefit for the user isn’t worth it. The innovation probably starts in 2nd or 3rd world countries out of necessity where people don’t have CC and maybe never win one. Maybe wechat goes worldwide and competes with Visa, MC etc.

This is a funny way to look at this, but it is exactly what any activist investors are out too do. Get a quick pop in the stock price, activist can sell out at a nice profit and move on. However, it is not the management job to comply with this. When I look at Einhorns recap approach using preferred stock, it is quite clear that his is what he wanted to do. Besides the fact that it probably wouldn’t habe worked (he valued the preferred way to high in his sandbox game), it would have created conflict of interest and difficulties further down the road, which of course wouldn’t have been his problem. I am not a shareholder, but just from looking at the numbers, GM’s management has done fine. The stock has just not been awarded a multiple expansion like some others, that’s why it hasn’t moved much. in my opinion, management job isn’t to get thr stock price up, it is to run the business well. This should lead to a higher stock price , but sometimes it doesn’t, which is why value stocks exist in the first place.

The capital allocation seems fine to me, Using part of the $100B is not going to make a whole lot of difference for an $870B market cap company. I would rather have them buy back stock, when it becomes clearly cheap, which right now it is not. They may need some to fund the ventures at some point, if they really grow into something big. Waymo example may have a huge hardware component that could require acquisition and significant Capex in several fields (lasers, sensors, optics, chips) to scale up and I could see them spending tens of billions on this alone. Sure they could spent the cash hoard on buybacks and borrow some funds later if needed, it it’s nice to have a clean balance sheet without debt too. I would rather have them concentrate on growing 25% annually for an extended period of time, thats where the value will be created. Everything else is more or less secondary.

Conflicts between his different entities rarely were an issue for him. My guess is that Malone wants to slow down, he is not 65 any more 8)

I bought a Maytag dishwasher early this year for $450 early this year that now quotes for $580. That’s what winning a trade war looks like. Yay!