Spekulatius

I wouldn't do anything here... not having Marchionne will impact the business for certain, but the bench is deep and the targets have already been set. Maybe the next round of leaders don't have the same vision, but I don't think it changes the execution of the current plan? The Magneti Marelli spin is in process of digestion... Benches can clear out quickly after a sudden lead ship change. Altavilla us gone already and I think we will see more departures.

It would be helpful if there were announcements of capacity increases for steel, but so far I have not seen any. I am guessing the management of the steel companies are just happy to cash in the windfall from the higher prices and leaves it at that. Steel prices in the US are now way higher than in the rest of the world, so everyone else who is using steel will eat the margin hit, or lay it off to the consumer. I can’t blame steel execs either, given the instability it would be risky to make plans for 3 years out and build a new foundry.

I haven’t seen any, but I haven’t looked to closely either. From a user perspective, it seems that Twitch loses to YouTube. I watch some streams from gamers every once in a while and most games stream using Twitch and YouTube simultaneously. You can typically hw many users are on which platform and typically 80-90% are on YouTube. YouTube als seems better at setting up donations or chatting. Hence I doubt that Twitch is a meaningful business for AMZN.

Same paper that first reported that the deal was going through in early June, so I would take with a pinch of salt. Well, we will know by Wednesday for sure. My guess would be that the deal is a no go.

So this goes for 6.5x EBITDA and a 5% dividend yield. I can buy a pretty decent utility company operating in the US and the UK with a 6% dividend yield and 9.5x EV/EBITDA (PPL). Seems to me that PPL may beat better bet. I can see the attraction her, but I think if you operate in an unstable country, a 50% discount isn’t really unreasonable.

I do agree that thr chinese market has some bargains, but nit sure that Vipshop isbth best way I express this idea. I own a little bit of YY, but anlow risk idea is to by CHL - the largest telecom company in China, with vast wireless exposure. It’s run like an utility, pays a dividend, has a great balance sheet with next cash and is unlikely subject fraud, due to the government having quasi contro over it (hence I assign it as an utility). Sanctions would have very little impact on it’s business.

OG- correct and thanks for the clarification. It makes sense that you can have a clear edge, especially in smaller niches. I don’t think this qualifies asset secret though. I think there are quite a few in this forum right here that have found some flavor of a secret sauce that works for them.

Adding some RE today. This insurance stock is down due to a $250M Reserve adjustment. Not positive for sure, but RE has a decent history on reserving and they take action quickly if needed. Trades at <1.1x book, if memory serves correctly.

What you state might be correct, but If I were pitched participation in a one man shop that does amazing things that none of us have heard about, I would decline.

I feel they are doing the right thing. This is the Fidelity’s model. People who are complaining here is the “portfolio manager”/advisors, because their pay is going down. The old model is less cost efficient and the new model is better for most customers and lower costs. Nowadays customers are becoming more sophisticated and they know what products they want. For WFC, asset gathering and providing a lot of low costs products to customers is a better business model. This is fine, when WFC would be upfront about it. At least with Fidelity, the product is in fact low cost and generally, Fidelity funds or ETFs are OK. I am not in the high networth bucket, but customer service is good too and you get a human on the phone very quickly. I have and investment account to WFC too and that it definitely not the case with them. I am only stick around with WFC because of the 100 free trades with the PMA (grandfathered) and recently I am questioning even that. The problem with WFC is that claim to sell and individualized product, but it’s really an apparently poorly reforming roboadvisor. Is there any reason to stick around with them as a customer or working as a financial advisor for WFC after you read this article?

Not true. They gain a lot from approving. 1) They get concessions from NewCo vs. nothing if they don't approve. 2) They get goodwill from EU and rest of world, not to mention U.S. It made complete sense they would wait till the 11th hour to approve. They want to hold as much leverage as possible with ZTE outstanding and the larger trade war. But once it becomes clear this deal will DIE on July 25th, they hold no leverage anymore. And there is no way to put it back together if they don't act. They also approved the 20b Toshiba deal to a US PE firm just a few weeks ago. It shows the are not holding up every deal, merely delaying them for leverage. Final point: QCOM and NXPI will be pissed if this dies and could move biz operations outside of China over the coming months/years to make sure they don't get screwed again. Yet another reason to approve the deal. I looked at NXPI‘s operation and they only do tech backend manufacturing in China. I don’t think that China is losing sleep to lose those jobs. I see ~4B in cash and ~6.5B in debt. If they take Qualcomm $2B that will probably net $1.5B after taxes and leaving them with $1B in debt. This is a nice business, but it doesn’t look very cheap to me. That said, if it drops to the mid nineties, I would buy a few shares.

The time frame when these changes occurred in wealth management is the concerning part. It looks like they just ramped this up, after the problems at the bank gave surfaced and management was presumably fixing them. Now it seems that at the same time, they amped up the sales pressure at their investment advisory business to maybe compensate. Seems rotten at the core to me.

I am wondering just how messed up this company is. The negative stories just keep coming... It appears like rotten to the core in terms of culture. Not worth investing in, imo and certainly not worth a premium to BAC. I think even C might be a better managed bank at this point. In the end, this all will mean years of forgone growth for WFC.

nice write up. i have pretty much all the key points in my notes, but would never be able to present it so nicely. Pretty compelling. I put this one in my watchlist in case there is a correction.

Ouch- that’s gotta hurt: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/wells-fargo-automated-high-net-worth-wealth-management-advisors-faced-sales-pressure-151535558.html Doesn’t make the sales pitch easier going forward, that’s for sure.

I think you are double counting if you are valueing, Amazon video and Music separately from Prime..

Yes, Elon increasingly seems to be getting a shorter and shorter fuse. There is a risk that he is losing it and may become untenable as a CEO. Other CEO’s have been fired for far less.

Added a few shares of long suffering KSB3.DE. Underearning Pump manufacturer controlled by a foundation, but with a very solid balance sheet.

Maybe they are not idiots and want their name showing up on th gofundme website. To what end? So everyone will think that they are idiots? It is preferable to be a famous idiot compared to be a smart nobody. Just look at the talking heads in the tube or the folks running for or being in office.

I don’t know how Elon can be compared to Tony Stark. Tony Stark for example is much more modest.

Elon apparently losing it: https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5b4b7390e4b0bc69a7881148

Maybe they are not idiots and want their name showing up on th gofundme website.

Speaking of emotion, at some point, the impact of any future significant other should be pointed out. even if your niece is financially literate and smart, it does not mean anything, if the signifant other is just the opposite. Then there is the issue with wedding expenses, if it comes to that. They tend to be in the same ballpark than a 20% down payment for a house in the US. That’s a huge opportunity cost if you can only do one of the above. I think it is important to point this out. You niece will probably roll her eyes right there.

Same cautions and warnings were said before the Olympics in Sochi. Turned out to be bunk for it as well. Very friendly, welcoming people. Their driving and queuing system, however, took a bit to get used to. Plus Baltika is a pretty good beer. I have generally found this to be true just about everywhere and I have been to some not so commonly travelled places. Authorities can be a different matter though.

When CHTR went bankrupt (I think it was a Paul Allen vehicle then), it was badly run from an operational POV, subscale and the debt load was much higher in terms of EBITDA/EV. CHTR debt right now is 4-4.5x. EV/EBITDA which is in the same ballpark than most utility companies and since the business is comparable (if not better), I feel it is manageable. CHTR tangible equity is in fact negative, yahoo shows it as such and should be about correct.