Spekulatius

This doesn’t sound very good either - regulator stepping down. Regulatory capture taken a bit too far, I,o: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-ohio-utility-regulator-resigns-164518938.html Fitch also downgraded FE to junk apparently. This makes a dividend cut and/or capital raise more likely, imo.

I don’t have much of a clue about CRISPR technology and I am not sure one has to. I have become convinced that in most cases, platform companies are not the way to invest in Biotech. Rather invest in smart management team that are platform agnostic, but have deep knowledge in therapeutic areas and clinical development and let them pick the technology that they think works best. I don’t have many positions in Biotech, but I do have a smallish position in BMRN because I have followed them for a decade or more, when I could find stories in the local newspaper. Now looking at them, they have proven that they know what they are doing and brought several products to market and are cash flow positive now. That’s more like a bet I feel making, but everyone’s view is different.

A smaller doses should not be more effective. I think in a clinical trial in Ph 1 or 2 (where different doses are tested) this type of response is typically a red flag, but then I haven’t looked at the data yet. In any case, the bottom line is we now have 3 proven vaccines with more to come.

I am still holding. While AMZN entry in a market is always a concern, there substantial friction to switch over from a convenient choice like Walgreen or CVS. I think the reason CVS did the Aetna deal is exactly the concern about the long term viability of the front end “convenience store” setup. They try to get more in an integrated model with Minute clinics replacing the front end. I think the pandemic actually helps because it drives people to vaccinations and testing. My workplace used to have an annual flu clinic, but not this year, because of social distancing, so we are urged to go to CVS instead (which I did). I think the COVId-19 rollout will be another opportunity for CVS to get deeper into this and acquire new customer for the Minute clinics. Aetna itself is doing great and actually has exceeded the projections from the merger so far. Financially, they are close to their target leverage stated before the Aetna merger, so they should be able to increase the dividend (which was frozen) and do buybacks. This should be good for the stock.

Time to get infected before it is too late. A trip to South Dakota is probably your best option.

They might well do both - raise capital and reduce the dividend. Book value is not the right way to look at an utility - the regulated asset base is a better metric in connection with credit metrics (debt/ EBITDA).

Medical staff infection are becoming more and more an issue. We will run out of medical workers before we run out of hospital capacity, hence the need to vaccinate medical workers as well as nursing home staff first.

This is a utility with a long history of subpar management, but they recently outdid themselves with a scandal involving the spinoff of some nuclear power plants which subsequently went bankrupt suspiciously fast. There was apparently bribery involved to get the deal done and while I am uncertain on the details, the CEO and the legal counsel have been fired. I stated tracking this stock again after the scandal came to light and the stock tanked. The business itself are mostly regulated power transmission and distribution assets in reasonably friendly (as far as regulators are concerned) areas, except maybe New Jersey. I was reading though the last 10-q and what caught my eye was a list of the recent credit ratings. I read thwt FE was downgraded due to above mishaps before, but I was surprised to se that not just the holding co, but also the subs have been downgraded into junk - BB+ By S&P, while Fitch and Moody‘s have them still at BBB- or even BBB. A 2 Notch divergence is unusual, and I wonder what happens if the other credit rating cos join S&P and downgrade FE to junk. Typically regulators don’t like a regulated utility becoming junk credit, so I think this could quickly force and equity raise to counter a credit downgrade. That’s my thinking - I would like to buy this at distressed valuation (see PGE or EIX lately) but I am wary of stepping in front of a possible equity raise. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1031296/000103129620000045/fe-20200930.htm

Thanks for taking the time to write a post Morten. I have also followed PH (didn’t invest though) and it is interesting to look at how things panned out vs the expectations years ago. For me the most striking point is that PH has performed well, despite very subpar organic growth and some badly (in retrospect) timed acquisitions. This is a company that came from a history of mediocre profitability, but a CEO a decade or so ago took measure on pricing and getting closer to the customer to boost margins, as I recall and this has contributed significantly to its outperformance. I don’t really see a similar tailwind going forward unless there is another transformation that led it boost its financial performance even more so.

And then think about whether fecal diseases (typhoid, cholera, etc) are spread by farts. Farts work well to enforce social distancing though.

Why are the alternatives horrible? The most straightforward alternative is to open an account with a reputable low cost asset manager like Fidelity or Schwab and cost average into low cost index funds like (SP500, QQQ or total stock market index). That’s easy to do for everyone. If handholding is required, I think Fidelity and Schwab actually do a pretty good job with their advisors for a relatively low fee. those are alternatives that I have and would advise my friends.

The story of how BioNtech developed the COVId-19 vaccine: https://www.ft.com/content/c4ca8496-a215-44b1-a7eb-f88568fc9de9 I didn’t know this, but Pfizer was not involved in the early stages, but assisted with manufacturing and running the trials. The research was funded by the German government (375M Euro) and of course a large order (if the vaccine would be approved ) by the US government played a role too.

So in your opinion Twitch donations are also fake? Organized by Amazon/Bezos to inflate their revenues and stock price! ........ just kidding 8) There is actual community and culture of gifting for live streams. Mostly not by cheap value investors though. ;) To be fair, there is also buying of fake followers and fake fans. On western services too. Youtube, Instagram, Twitter, etc. Just search for "buy followers". ;) Does not mean that Google / Facebook are cooking their books though. I'm not saying that YY is all clean. I have issues with what they do, which is why I sold. Not because of MW report. It is possible that YY is totally fraudulent. My guess is that it isn't, but there's enough questionable behavior to avoid it. Yes, I am familiar with Twitch and communities there. Those are real. i would agree with you that YY is shady, but not necessarily totally fraudulent. Doesn’t matter because neither one seemed like something I want to invest in a few years back and I left it at that. A lot of folks on fintwit like to “buy” followers too.

Why do you think it is mostly crap? I owned this for a short time in 2018 and felt that the company is if not fraudulent, then at least fairly shady. There were some weird transaction with their Huya esports subsidy at that time, that made little sense. When you look at these live streams, you wonder why anybody would pay or give gifts or tokens for this. none of my Chinese relatives new much about those, much less watch this. just about everything that you see and read about this company seems off. I sold at small loss and moved on. I do think there is likely truth in what MW has been writing about YY. For a fraud, it hasn’t performed too badly though.

Why is this stupid? The drug apparently has not produced any tangible benefit in their large study and it is expensive and complex to administer. They are not the first ones to bring this up either. The WHO supports more trials but so far, it does not seem very effective, if at all.

So you are saying that EquityZen and SharePost are not startups? :o Well, they have been around for a little, so they should at least be past the Angel Investor stage. But yes you are right, the trust and security question applies to all of them. I am surprised the full service brokers or even Fidelity and Schwab are not active in this business. Seems like a perfect way to build relationships with HNW individuals and those that are on the way of getting there via stock ownership.

I am not sure I want to invest in upstarts through an upstart. Seems like a lot chained risk here. another Zenequity and Sharepost put your shares in an LLC who’s sole purpose is holding shares in said company apparently.

Well, at the end of the day, you have an almost $500M market cap company with no revenues. It’s doesn’t take a whole lot doof conjecture to see why investors are skeptical. IOT is a tough business model and ramping revenue tends to be difficult and probably even harder with regulated utilities being the main customer.

Yeah, Liberator is worth checking out. i like the Visual Style, but I do think that the storytelling falls a bit flat. If you do want to watch a really good WW2 swords, try “Generation war” on Netflix: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_War For something lighthearted and seasonal (Xmas), “Dash and Lilly” is well scripted and entertaining.

Thanks Gregmal, your detailed reply is much appreciated.

Interesting comparison of the two mRNA vaccine front runners (Moderna, Pfizer-BioNtech): https://twitter.com/biohazard3737/status/1329131035540516865?s=21 FWIW, that @biohazard3737 fellow is worth a follow.

Has anyone dabbled in private securities - pre IPO shares? If so, how did they go about it? I signed up at. A platform - sharepost just to get a feel for what is going on. The process seems to be archaic, with a broker looking for shares to buy if you make an offer. There are no financials either, the only thing known are the financing rounds so far. Main bid size 100k usually, which is too steep for me I would be interested hearing if somebody else went down this path further and has some experience with this.

Sold down a little more BNTGY.

I also bought MRK in the mid seventies and think it is a classic GARP stock, above average quality (business, balance sheet) for a below market multiple. MRK seems like a straightforward buy for Buffet holding. He has avoided Pharma so der because he was unsure about valuing their product pipelines. I guess that is why he takes the basket approach.

ABNB last round was at a $30.9B valuation apparently - is this really worth much more? I would guess that it goes to a higher valuation, due to strong brand recognition, but the business metrics don’t look all that impressive. They do seem to pay a huge “tax” to Google ; I assume a lot of operating and marketing expense may just be that.