Spekulatius

It seems like they get income from other tokens (both 5% yearly “maintenance”) and 0.5% withdrawal fees. This sounds like a frocking expensive checking account for users to me. Thank you for the explanation. So it seems more like participating in arbitrage than In a crypto checking account via this token. Then the question really is why do those opportunities exist and how likely they exist in the future, because if you put a PE ratio as a valuation mark, you do assume that there will be cash flows in the future.

I am not a fan of BAM’s model either. My main concern is that is the huge leverage in their subs and the crummy assets BPY owns. The GP/LP business model is fraught with bad incentives and is the reason why many of these structures don’t survive. It can work very well for GP’s with economic tailwinds and good management but when things go wrong, they tend to go very wrong. Has anyone done a calculation of what BAM is worth if BPY is a zero (aside from the huge reputational damage)?

One thing I would add is that if you like dividends, there are much better things to invest in than Reits - Utility like Pipeline stocks (which you have mentioned as well) and tobacco stocks like BTI, MO and PM. All of them have tail risk (duration of the cash flow is an issue) but not really as much near term risk than Reits. The problem I see with Reits is that some of them trade or should trade on NAV According to the bulls even though it is unlikely they will ever get liquidated. They should trade as if they are ongoing entities taken into account their corporate overhead burden, based on a dividend growth model.

It seems like they get income from other tokens (both 5% yearly “maintenance”) and 0.5% withdrawal fees. This sounds like a frocking expensive checking account for users to me.

Ok, October is German month in Netflix - Barbaren and Oktoberfest: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9184986/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10244612/

Again, the fallacy of CASES! OMG! What a disaster...these people are total idiots. As I posted earlier...UF GAME CANCELLED BECAUSE OF COVID OUTBREAK......(tiny print) All 21 players are either asymptotic or show minor symptoms... Can we please create some place where a certain percentage of the population lives where there are high taxes, shutdowns every time one catches the flu. and absurd rules around things like soda, plastic bags and police officers doing their jobs...and another where there are no taxes, and people just live their lives?? If you read the article - one of the main reason for the shutdown is that the coaches fail to cooperate with the contact tracers and even went to so far to told the team to ignore calls from contact tracers. So it is likely that more clusters were created by these activities that we don’t know about. Our governor Charlie Baker is Republican.

Earnings have been pretty good for defense contractors. LMT, NOC and LHX all best their earning targets. I was just looking at LHX’s numbers which reported earnings gs today. Looking back, Harris was a ~$6B company with close to 20% operating margins. L3 was a bit more than $10B revenue company, but their operating margins were much lower - 11%. Now, if we revenue weigh this we expect to see ($6*0.2+$10.2*0.11)/($6+$10.2)=14.3% margin. LHX in the last quarter achieved a 17.9% operating margin already. The quarter before were 18.2%, 17.5% and 17.3% respectively. Seems like things are generally moving in the right direction. Defense is an area where economies of scale are very real. As a small contractor , working in defense can be a fairly trough business, because awards can be lumpy and the bigger guys can be squeezing you on margins.But once you are a prime contractor and have your lobbyist working for you Etc. so you understand which way the wind is blowing in thr Pentagon and economies of scale, then things get much much better.

Pretty typical microcosm of what is happening: https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/10/28/why-did-massachusetts-shut-down-ice-rinks-charlie-baker-says-blame-the-adults

Most of the decisions regarding health and COVID-19 are made by the individual states, not the government in Washington. Sure the federal government can and should help but one would think they could do two month or so without.

Yep, but that is not gonna happen I'm afraid. They seem completely clueless. It's quiet incredible to think what some basic financial engineering would do here. They borrow at a couple of pct points, it is a no brainer, but they have no brains it seems. Perhaps when lockup of ABI shares lapse next year. Couldn’t they just swap ABI shares for MO shares, either directly or in a roundabout way? I went through the last CC and what I found interesting is the home delivery of IQOS devices. They have an age verification system, so I think this is quite a chance to go directly to the consumer and grab more value. I just bought a few shares as well, so I am interested on how this turns out.

It’s hard to rip out the core SAP (which does all the financial transactions) but you can rip out non- critical modules like their HR module or travel (Concur). The company I work for has replaced their HR module with Workday and while there were some delays, the transition worked fine and Workday is a huge improvement over heat we had before. This things go straight against SAP’s strategy to add modules to their existing core system and expand that way. SAP is better than Oracle (which seems very rigid and non-intuitive to use) but it isn’t really close to as good as best in class software that one can attach to the core SAP system.

The dirty little secret of V and MA is how depended on cross border revenues these entities are. Those cross border revenues are way higher than the 0.2-0.3% charge for a same currency transaction. With travel being impacted more and way into 2021 apparently, these cross border revenues are late to recover, hence he downward revision for 2021 earnings for these entities. I think over the long run, these cross border fees will have to drop.

Nice start. QQQ's down about 1% a/h. As described, the MSFT experience indeed with FB, AMZN and AAPL. Google was super impressive but not really one of the stocks I view as having been put on steroids by the covid situation, so a bit different than some of the others. Well, it depends on when you bought them. The puts that I am looking at are still down significantly for the day, but bounced back a little after hours. If you bought them at the peak of today, then you are in the money.

Interesting. For comparison, when we went to Germany we had to call an ambulance for my wife’s brother. He ended up with an ambulance ride to the nearest emergency room. I had to prepay 100 Euro on his behalf (there is no insurance treaty with the US) and total bill came out at 300 Euro later. That included a couple of hours in an emergency room. But yes, socialized healthcare (which it technical isn’t in Germany) is scary! Just for the ambulance scam - the same scam exists with tow trucks. If cops call a tow track on behalf of an accident participant, you can bet that this tow truck isn’t with AAA (at least from my and a friends experience).

^ The problem with puts is if they are adequately priced? To me the prices paid right now seem very high, as you would expect with a VIX of ~36. As mentioned before, the VIX never really got below 25 even in a steadily rising market. VIX 25 is a fairly high number, historically speaking.

Turk but we also have a saying in German: “Ist der Ruf erst ruiniert, lebt es sich recht ungeniert” I am sure google translate will come up with an about correct translation. At some point, you have to make a pick between the two lifestyles and stick with one. I am sure SD has more wisdom to spread on this matter than I do 8).

It depends if its peers are strong vertical market software businesses or oil and gas suppliers. Its sort of both of those things, so it makes sense that it has traded between them. Nearly all of CMG's customers are oil and gas companies, right? At the end of the day if oil and gas prices aren't healthy then CMG isn't going to thrive either. The best house in a bad neighborhood is still in a bad neighborhood. True. But the best house in a bad neighborhood can be a good investment if you pay the right price for it. The worst house in a great neighborhood tends to be a much better investment. I think one can easily take analogies too far.

In Europe at least and I suspect in the US many new cases are do ing from family and friends get-togethers. Also note that in Europe restaurants and bars (the differences tend to be more marginal in Europe) have been open. In neither occasions, people wear masks. We have Thanksgiving coming up, which likely will cause another spike in cases.

I am not too keen on HII, they aren’t good operators and in addition to being lousy operators, what they are doing is not really technologically advanced work ( shipyard) and that’s where defense spending is going, imo. I had a small position, it reconsidered and sold out about flat. GD is performing quite well and they seem to operate much better in business comparable to HII (Electric boat) and they are also doing some more technologically sophisticated work in other business lines.

The fact that the teams are bound to a lease to MSGS and the broadcast rights to MSG in my opinion is worth a significant discount. Maybe it doesn’t matter, the real question is if and when is Dolan selling. Utah may be a no name team, but is less affected by COVID-19 than NYC teams. It is also a state with population growth, the Mormons make sure of that.

I agree with RB that INTC vs AAPL is a different situation, but then again no situation is exactly the same. INTC could well go wrong - they never get their process fixed, never decide to make a leap to TSM is that’s the case and get rolled over on the chip design side by Apple, and and NVDIA and the like. This could well happen. However, if INTC works out, I bet earnings and earnings multiple will be higher I could see INTC trading at a 20x earning multiple again, in line with other semiconductor companies. That should yield a very nice return - probably a triple from current prices. As of today, I bought some FAF, MO and added to RTX and some RHM.DE. Topped up NOC and LHX a little too.

$5.7 - new lows. Is the fat lady singing yet?

If someone gives you 10 reasons for something, he came up with the thesis first and the reasons later.

Hmm. According to BBC, the citizen seeking freedom are: I guess one just has to distinguish between peaceful protestors and rioters. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54701042 Maybe there is more too it. I think the lockdown 2.0 will be more targeted towards known transmission vectors and in hotspots and less broad.

+1 For those who like Thinkpads, this is a pretty good deal: https://slickdeals.net/f/14460524-lenovo-thinkpad-x13-gen-1-laptop-ryzen-7-pro-13-3-1080p-16gb-ddr4-128gb-ssd-833-50?page=7#comments You can go through Rakuten and get another 10% cash back off. I ordered one today to replace my 2012 Dell XPS13 which is running on Windows 7 and while going strong, some software (TurboTax) is just not going to work any more. Cancelled my order for thr Thinkpad. I figured out how to update my 2012 XPS13 from the obsolete Windows 7 to Windows 10, so it should be good for another 1-2 years. Once a value guy always a value guy. My wife is rolling her eyes.