Spekulatius

https://robintrack.net/symbol/KODK

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that? I am pretty sure the infection rates will be going down near term, but predicting the infection rates really didn’t help much predicting the stock market at all. I also think come fall and in particular post Thanksgiving, the Infection rates will start rising again most likely. However by then, the election Outcome is likely more important for the stock market.

Looks like insidertrading is crime number one: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/closer-look-kodak-chairmans-stock-173052759.html There are likely more. I can’t see how Kodak is most qualified to produce pharmaceutical ingredients. There are likely hundreds of more qualified entities.

I don’t see how signing up expensive big names like Joe Rogan or the Kardashian is going to help them much to reduce content costs.

Well a reasonable approach is to look at the 1.5GBP relative to their current market cap (~4.9GBP). Assuming a discount and call it 4.5GBP, we are looking at a ~30% increase in sharecount.

Thanks on the color for HII. I heard the “metal bender” characterization of HII business in a MF industry focus podcast. I do think there is a bit of truth in it. I looked at HII too, but ultimately decided to buy the higher tech LHX and NOC instead. My portfolio is already “armed to the teeth” with holdings in RHM.DE, BAESY, NOC, GD and LHX and I simply don’t want to own them all.

Spek - thanks for sharing. This is an amazing and definitely a must-read for anyone holding WFC. Definitely changed my opinion that this is a 1-3 year turnaround to probably 3-5 year with a lot of work. To LC's point below, I think they are starting to hire though it would be good to see a well thought out strategy. My very loose data point is that someone in my professional network reached out to talk WFC. This individual's career covers OCC and CFPB. Yes, a very good read indeed. Bill Brewster posted this link in twitter and deserves the credit for digging this out. He is also long WFC.

What exactly does 0.5% dollar share mean? Does PM get 0.5% dollar of the revenue? (If yes this would be a whole lot less than i thought it would be) It means they need to achieve 0.5% market share ( in terms of revenues, not volumes) to keep the license. At least that’s my read. I don’t see the license royalties in this excerpt anywhere.

How do you guys view the future of Baseball as a sport? It feels to me that engagement is failing and the audience skews very old. No international viewership either. I think this will put a limit on future team value appreciation.

Republican financial service report on WFC https://republicans-financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/republican_staff_report_on_wells_fargo.pdf If you ignore the blatant political advertisement in the beginning, this is pretty good report detailing exactly the many things where WFC went wrong.

Can you recommend some Fidelity funds? Thanks I like their health care funds. FSPHX is good.

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though. It's hard for me to add to MSFT when I have a cost base around $24. I was buying around 7-8x earnings back then. 35 seems like a kings ransom. I also owned some MSFT at $24 and sold at $40. That’s deep value investing.... Today’s MSFT equivalent could well be INTC, if management can turn it around. You would get the rising earnings and rising multiple Goldilocks. The rising multiple was responsible for half the returns with MSFT (eyeballing this roughly).

I think I just stick with Fidelity. LOL

As far as I know medicare is specifically prohibited from using this power through the Medicare Modernization Act. Thx, I wasn’t aware of this. I guess that would be a low hanging fruit to pick. Well theoretically ....

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths? Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative. You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks" I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase?? +1 Father’s Day and Memorial Day.

LLY stock price is down ~1% alongside other drug companies but generally speaking, life has been good for drug manufacturers recently , but not so good for consumers: https://www.consumerreports.org/drug-prices/the-shocking-rise-of-prescription-drug-prices/ Medicare has a lot of market power already, they just need to use it. They can take some clues from single payer countries allover the world on how to do it.

It’s not jut government deciding what to do, but also individuals and organizations. Flight trends are doen ~60% (These are search stats, but probably give a good idea). You can fly but most people don’t want to. https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

Once you determined that the CEO is a crook, nothing else matters.

I don’t think the vaccine is binary at all. For one thing, it is likely not 100% effective and might only reduce the probability of infection by 50%. This might enough to get us to herd immunity (or close) by suppressing the ro when almost everyone takes it, but it won’t protect he individual who takes it reliably. Also, vaccines work less well on older people because their immune system is weaker and doesn’t respond as well. The main benefit for older people might be from the compounding effect that kicks in when everyone takes not when you personally takes it. It’s similar to a mask in a way. Now with the way things play out, I am not sure everyone would take the vaccine.There were already board members here who stated they won’t. Now you have anti vacciner and those that give a damn because there don’t consider themselves personally at risk (younger folks presumable) and this who don’t have access to health care and I can see that it will be difficult to get the population here vaccinated efficiently and thorough. Again, leadership will be essential once we have a vaccine to get this done and maybe give some incentives for people to vaccinate. It will be interesting but my guess is it won’t be binary.

To your point above, TSMC will build a $12b fab here in the U.S. The Fab process have changed the ball game and there are great benefits to this development. For example, this provides ample incentive for major tech companies to design CPUs & GPUs for their own various purposes, excluding memory chips. The combination of hardware and software design will continue to lead tech innovation. We also don't know what will happen with quantum computers. I tend to agree Intel's business model and moat are in serious jeopardy and too hard for me to figure out if they win out. Even with a fab build here in the US by TSM May mean that they do copy exact from their other plants here. While this is better than nothing one would want to self developed leading edge process technology here. This is something the US administration (current and next one) should think about rather than steep tariffs or how to keep coal plants running. If someone looks at INTC from a 10k foot perspective , the current integrated model doesn’t make any sense. They should try to make a deal to JV the manufacturing ops with TSM and stick to designing and marketing. It would required an admission of defeat of sorts, but INTC has done this before when they abandoned memory chips (which they invented) because it didn’t make any sense back any more.

Any idea why EQR appears to be the dog in the apartment Reit space? MAA seems to be the top performer.

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though.

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.

Yes, if there is a substantial change in the story (not just an earnings miss when overall numbers are still good etc.) than AH tend to lack. It figure that funds managers don’t well AH they are going to meet in the morning and decide to sell. I think it’s faster than 3 days in many cases, but something it takes weeks to dissipate. I have MSFT on my watch list as well, but I don’t think I would take a bite above ~$180 (~30x earnings).

Is it just me, or is the website currently very sluggish, especially when making a post. I suspect others here experience the same, since I do see double posts quite a bit.