Spekulatius

It’s likely that they only count positive cases. I think the bigger problem is that people have to wait many days in FLA to get results. DesSantis better goes to work to match his rhetoric from a few weeks ago.

Ackmanns last special vehicle was a single levered bet on Target before the Great Recession. It was a zero if I recall correctly.

I think there is a kid at the bottom of this pool that isn’t in this picture. It doesn’t scream any more. Mommy doesn’t care. This would be a “deep value investor”.

Disneyland Hk closed because of 52 new COVID-19 cases. Disneyland Orlando opens with 12.5k new cases. Guess who will have more success dealing with an epidemic. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/media/hong-kong-disneyland-closing/index.html

Anyone follows this? I bought a few shares a couple of days ago. Seems cheapish is for an exchange business relative to NDAQ, CME and others. This is likely because there were issue with the VIX ETN back in March when volatility went sky high (VIX is proprietary to CBOE) but does this impair the business permanently? I would think not. They also acquired a business that deals with European futures that is still money losing this year and next, but might have potential in the future. As I said, I own a small position but wonder if anyone has looked at this stock and has deeper insight.

$277/sqft rent For retail in NYC? Ouch! I think we will see some serious resets on those numbers going forward. I guess investing in this is going to be like pissing against the wind. Great sleuthing here from rb, thepupil and Bg2008.

Situations similar to this may be quite close to occurring if there is a radical regime change come November. i wonder if the radical regime change theme should not trigger to question the direction of the cause and effect. Both President Hoover and Governor FDR had very similar positions on a strong dollar and a balanced budget. President Hoover in July 1932 expected recovery by the end of the year and before the election. FDR's approach accounted for the possibility of a severe and prolonged contraction. At the time of the devaluation, the US had a positive trade balance and even if the move was a global one, the overriding objective was domestic. The idea was reflation, just like now. Moving away from certain regime changes that still need to be defined: https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations.aspx Reflation will happen somehow but it's hard to see how an economic slowdown will not meet negative rates. Lower interest rates have been mentioned a lot as a reason for higher equity multiples, but the lower tax rates are a factor too. I recall statuatory tax rates of close to 46% and they were 56% (for retained profits with cash back for dividends) in Germany. It has been a race to the bottom, but the last tax rate reductions seems to have done little for growth and much for wealth inequity. Time to try something else, I think. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-tax-rate

Yes, the asset cap is likely a contributing factor of turning business away. I also agree that a lower rate is an I incentive for the customer change the bank. And, but think about it from WFC‘s perspective - how likely is a customer who leaves his bank to get 1/8% (to make a number up) lower interest rate on his mortgage is going to be in the future? Those are probably the customers that you don’t want if you are a bank, especially if you are capital constraint to begin with.

I gathered some additional info about air circulation that might be useful for some. Most heating and air circulation systems will recirculate some used air to reduce energy consumption. HEPA filters in the duct path should catch droplets, but may not catch aerosols , so that may pose some risks. in the Montreal area, there was one urging home where insufficient air circulation was suspected to be a factor in an outbreak. https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-canada-quebec/canada-sends-army-to-quebec-care-homes-on-frontlines-of-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSL2N2C31TG I talked with a manager of a manufacturing company (which I consider very proactive with respect to COVID-19) and they Changed their heating/air conditioning setup to single use air only a while ago. This prevents recirculating, but it also increases the nerdy consumption. I had a talk with a local residential HVAC guy (because our central HVAC is 20 years old and likely to break down soon). I got a quote for a replacement system and it’s has an optional UV duct unit for about $525. This unit should get rid of the Virus if it circulates through the duct system. There should be commercial systems like this as well (costing likely much more). I will talk without facility engineer at work of what he thinks of installing them as a precautionary measure.

What they are really saying is that they don’t want new customers right now, unless they are really worth it. Invert this and ask yourself, why a high net worth customer does not refinance with his existing banking relationship.

Yes, that’s the key here. If you take this into account, the numbers that manual mentioned in his post aren’t actually too bad.

Maybe he realizes one day that he can’t open the schools because he chose to open things that should have remained closed given the circumstances. The ability to open schools safely is going to be driven by infection rates and particularly hospitalization rates. With the numbers that FL, AZ, GA, TX and Southern CA are putting up, I don’t think they are going to be able open the schools which pretty much guaranteed another 6 month of crappy economy in these states. It‘s not a matter of politics either, the Virus doesn’t care whether a state is red or blue. What matters is if you give him a chance to spread. A lot of countries have shown to safely safely open schools. If any state can’t open the schools, it’s not on Trump, it’s on the Gouverneurs and to some extend on the people too. You eat your own cooking with this epidemic and share them when with your neighbours.

Yes, the issue is that some managers are good in some companies, but fail nomothetic. Actually Schmitt who ran Novell (leading it to its surmise) and Google (he developed the upstart into a mature powerhouse) is a great example. This lead me to believe that many that are recognized as great managers aren’t really that great but rather lucky or perhaps great in one setting and mediocre in others.

Doesn't seem so shrewd to me. The vast majority of shares were repurchased at about $50, the share price today is less than half that. What's worse is that the share repurchase program is actually suspended at the moment, so no shares will be repurchased at these low prices. Don't get me wrong though, Wells does looks cheap, but even before covid, it looked a bit like it was on the ropes (Q3+Q4 of last year were not good quarters). Q1 of this year was bad, Q2 will also be bad. The momentum of the business here does not look good, so I've swerved it and decided to buy Bank of America. It has a similar valuation, but doesn't have the Wily E. Coyote, falling off a precipice feel that Wells does with its recent earnings and revenue. With that said, Charles Scharf could be the guy to turn this thing around. Would not bet against him, but BAC seems the slightly safer bet right now. WFC looks somewhat undervalued on P/B or P/E basis compared to BAC/JPM/UBS. But seems to me extremely undervalued if you look at Mktcap/Total Asset. I don't think the comparison are valid. BAC and JPM both have much larger investment banks attached to them. Maybe WFC is more comparable in business model to USB, which is down more than 40% for the year. That's actually a merger waiting to happen! Cheers! I think it is very unlikely that one of the big 3 banks ( WFC, BAC, JPM) will be allowed to do significant mergers with other banks in the near term future.

They are not playing offense, they kick the cans down the road. A lot this retailers like Brooks won’t exist 10 years from now, but SPG can’t afford to have vacant spaces in their malls so they have to keep zombies alive. The whole thesis that malls can become office spaces, experience Locations and Restaurant rows get covitzt. They are screwed, imo. I think I will see the Roosevelt mall in LI getting gutted out in the next 20 years, just to name one example.

Isn’t WFC NIM already significantly lower than that? Why won’t the US follow Europe and Japan. Never understand why our banking system / economy is so special relative to Europe. Banks don’t have to go they just get a lower ROE in those scenarios. WFC still could be cheap with a 7% ROE and other stocks are just really expensive then in a relative basis. 1) Retail banks fund their lending largely through retail deposits which are considered to be stable and more resilient vs wholesale funding that European banks were engaged in. This paper from BoC talks about Cdn bank resiliency to this regard https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/boc-review-spring17-truno.pdf 2) US and Canada have one central bank. The EU represents a bunch of different nations. It's hard to get immediate funding action like we have had for covid and GFC. Quick monetary action makes banks stronger. 3) Lastly, USD is the reserve currency. Hard to see it have a negative rate like the EU. FED officials specifically said that they don’t want negative I retest rates just a short while ago . This came from the head of the Missouri Fed as well as from Powell. It counts for something, imo.

Raspberry Royale every once in a while. ?I miss Ten Rens tea shop when I lived close enough to the Bay Area to go there. I am a hard core coffee nut anyways. There are cat people ( tea ) and dog people ( coffee) and almost nobody likes both.

I vote for EB simply because I know nothing about it’s business model.

Yes, Moynihan does not get the credit he deserves. He stick-handled BOA from has-been into a premier American bank just a tiny notch behind JPM. Arguably, the most important banking CEO in the last decade, because things could have gone very wrong with BOA. Very few in the hierarchy wanted him as CEO, because he was not charismatic, but he simply put his thick, Irish, head down and worked hard. I don't like excessive compensation for executives, but Moynihan deserved every penny! Cheers! I think it is the a question whether BAC at a slightly higher valuation but a well run broadly diversified bank isn’t a better risk reward than WFC which probably has a bunch of issues to work through. A crisis like COVID Leads to winners like JPM and BAC pull further away from the pack.

Thanks for bringing this up. You left out an interesting part - they just acquired Osram, the LED/ lighting company spun off from Siemens late last year. That may lead the while company in an entirely new direction. I would be interested in your thesis. I guess it is more than valuation. I know Osram a bit, they were fairly strong, but probably not quite best in class in power LED‘s. The LED‘s for lighting applications isn’t really that interesting, because you have to compete with the Chinese on price.

Here is a good one from ours truly Keith Smith: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/value-hive-podcast/id1492171651?i=1000482333189 Another good one from Rich Howe (Spinoffinvesting): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/value-hive-podcast/id1492171651?i=1000477715866 Rich covers MSGE/MSGS and IAC.

LHX (one of my holdings) got some love in VIC recently at $182.5. Now trading at $164, I can’t help but add some shares. generally speaking, defense stocks have been weak lately, anyone have any idea why? Fear of defense cuts if Biden wins the election? In any case, I am familiar with LHX (more so with L3 than with the Harris part) and the combinatory Company looks like a good bet to me. in my opinion, this is a good GARPy stock pick. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/L3HARRIS_TECHNOLOGIES_INC/8346441774

Depends on what's a "reasonable time frame". The time frame I see most often in the media is 12-18 months. It's hard not to be doubtful of that claim. From what I at this point we have the knowledge and capability to pretty much make any (most?) vaccine in 12-18 months. So I'm not so worried about the time frame. What I'm worried when it comes to the vaccine is: 1. Will it be any good? 2. Will the moron internet people actually get vaccinated? If you were under age 40 and in good health, would you pursue a covid vaccination? I wouldn't. The mortality rate and morbidity does not justify the time and the risk of side-effects for people of that age. If you are over 50 or 55, it starts to become a real risk and the vaccine might offer some real value. I hope we will see a vaccine developed, but I am not particularly optimistic about the adoption rate or the efficacy of the vaccine. SJ Having a vaccine with a known and well established immune response will beat getting the virus in the wild any time. I don’t know how this is even in question. In any case, count me in as getting vaccinated even if it is only 50% effective. I also get vaccinated for flue every year which wouldn’t kill me either, but having the flu isn’t fun and having COVID much less so. My wife has seen patients aged 30 year up in ICU‘s in rather sorry conditions. Right now, an acquaintance of her from CA in her forties is in the hospital and hasn’t exactly the greatest time there. If I can help it, I‘d rather avoid such a ordeal.

I couldn’t value SPOT and just bought a bit of VIV.PA and called it a day. I didn’t need to go fancy to justify what I paid for Vivendi. I think Vivendi got a decade worth of growth from the streaming business, perhaps more.

Not to mention even if schools manage to get solid systems and software in place for online learning there is still the issue of teachers themselves. Online teaching is a whole different ballgame. Throw in teachers over the age of 50 who have been in the classroom for 30 years and their effectiveness dwindles. Here in PA a ton of my coworkers pulled their kids from school and rushed them to PA cyber school simply because the teachers are at least trained for online learning. Our own school district is pretty good and I like most teachers, but it didn’t have the resources when the lightning struck on March and everything went remote. It took them 2 weeks to come up with an improved plan and we as parents had a hard time to make sense of what they came up with. I regard it pretty much as lost time and student engagement tanked for sure, not just with our own kids, but other parents reported the same. This remote learning may work for adults, but I think it’s worthless for smaller kids and mostly worthless for high schoolers too. Both my wife and myself are working away from home and in the evening we had a hard time to trace back what was happening during the day , what should have happened and what actually did happen. I have never seen such a mess. I think the fall Semester if it continues remotely would be a bit better, but not much. I hope that for the sake of mankind, the kids get back in the classrooms, not just for the sake of learning, but also for the social interactions. I can give up school bands, sport and all that extra stuff, but we need to get the basics done in the class room.