Spekulatius

Doesn’t SRG had many ongoing developments where they closed leases where the customer hasn’t taken possession yet and maybe never will?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2019/02/19/the-greatest-investor-youve-never-heard-of-an-optometrist-who-beat-the-odds-to-become-a-billionaire/#2bcc3b4122e8 Interesting. I should rephrase my original question. What’s is their cash burn currently, and how long can they survive with current liquidity, without depending on the kindness of friends or strangers. I don’t worry quite as much for TDG, since their liquidity position is much better. But HEI is safer on leverage and their client relations. I’d buy HEI but can’t answer the short term liquidity question. Virtually any dogshit company can borrow money now - BA just borrowed $25B - why shouldn’t a company like Heiko not be able to access the debt market? Besides, Heiko has significant exposure to industrial markets and defense, so they do have some flow coming in. I don’t think they have any trouble raising some debt. I do think they should use their premium valuation to raise equity and do some acquisitions.

Same here. IKEA would also work, but they don’t subsidize shipping.

This doesn’t sound that great: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/china-study-finds-5-to-15-of-covid-19-cases-are-reactivated

I was okay with missing the opportunity because I thought hindsight is 20/20 and the world was practically melting seven weeks ago to the point that the Chinese Government was apparently preparing a possible armed confrontation with the US. However, reading that made me feel that it's not alright to miss it because I did not have to back up the truck and my truck would be still full after all of it. I was really looking for another GGP, and this could've been it. I clearly remember that this will go up at least 300-500% if the capital markets still allowed Wayfair to operate, so I'm going to remember this painful experience. Especially when I invested in Valeant near the highs on information way less concrete. It goes to show that it makes no sense to time the market and buy when you see an opportunity, even with all the uncertainty. What did you have to lose? Only the capital you put up and even if you had a paper loss of 99%, you could always buy up more if you think the prospects are good. WOW It’s a fun ay statement they timing doesn’t matter with this “investment” when timing obviously needed to be perfect to get that multibagger return. What do you mean? :-\ It wasn't about timing but rather pricing because at $30 you are getting the company for almost as much as they invested to build it with paying customers. Even if you had the foresight to buy it at $30 - it went to $20. Therefore, one would've lost 33% of their investment in under a week. I did not look at it as a trade, but rather a commitment to see it through. For whatever reason Wayfair was not able to raise cash, it would've gone a lot lower than $20. As mentioned, one did not have to back up the truck on this investment. You literally told me this on a PM re: Wayfair: "Wayfair is one of those companies that I'm not comfortably owning for decades on end, but as a trade, I was happy to oblige ... As an investment, I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole, not because Wayfair is a cesspool, but rather I do understand the business as much as I want or rather figure out how to topple Wayfair's competitive position (if any). As a trade, the price was way too low on a technical and relative valuation basis." I do t disagree that it can be a good trade. But fundamentally I am not sure of it matter show much money they invested in their customer acquisition, if they keep losing money on every one of them. So I don’t know what Wayfair is worth, but something like this can be a good trade, I agree. Same with CVNA actually. If Mr Market decides to never let this companies raise a dime they are both done for. However, the optionality they the market keeps funding it is certainly there and in this side it worked out.

Biden and Trump both get infected before the election and don’t make it.

I know Dalal.Holdings mentioned this before, but there is more and more evidence that Vitamin D is protecting against COVID-19 or at least the severe progression: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-study-claims-vitamin-d-deficiency-may-impact-coronavirus-mortality-rates-2020-05-08 Anyways, cheap insurance with very little downside if it doesn’t work. So take in some sun when you can or some Vitamin D gel tablets.

I was okay with missing the opportunity because I thought hindsight is 20/20 and the world was practically melting seven weeks ago to the point that the Chinese Government was apparently preparing a possible armed confrontation with the US. However, reading that made me feel that it's not alright to miss it because I did not have to back up the truck and my truck would be still full after all of it. I was really looking for another GGP, and this could've been it. I clearly remember that this will go up at least 300-500% if the capital markets still allowed Wayfair to operate, so I'm going to remember this painful experience. Especially when I invested in Valeant near the highs on information way less concrete. It goes to show that it makes no sense to time the market and buy when you see an opportunity, even with all the uncertainty. What did you have to lose? Only the capital you put up and even if you had a paper loss of 99%, you could always buy up more if you think the prospects are good. WOW It’s a fun ay statement they timing doesn’t matter with this “investment” when timing obviously needed to be perfect to get that multibagger return.

So, the subscription price for Peloton bike is just $12.99? That’s pretty cheap. I recall it being $40 a while ago - did they lower prices?

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

Yes, I think they the gist of it. BRK is valued like a conglomerate at a discount to the sum of parts. Can’t be taken out or broken up either. Buffet definitely spooked some investors at the somewhat ghastly annual meeting.

What kind of company is this? NVE is a leader in the practical commercialization of spintronics, a nanotechnology that relies on electron spin rather than electron charge to acquire, store and transmit information. The company manufactures high-performance spintronic products including sensors and couplers. What, what? You should read the fun facts: https://www.nve.com/funFacts.php These make everything clear, no? I think we'll have to ask Spekulatius to explain this stuff to us. Quantum electronics. This Spintronics was supposed to be a great technology 30 years ago, but ended up being used only in niches.

Shouldn’t be an issue any more. For regular surgeries etc, hospitals are open for business. I think some truly elective stuff (mild hernia etc.) may still be pushed out depending on the area. The bigger issue is that some patient fear going to hospitals or doctors now out of concern contracting COVID-19.

Thank God the leader of the free world is an intellectual colossus, eh? Hardly so. However, the US can take a few punches while Brazil cannot. It’s mostly because theYS can print $ and borrow trillions for almost nothing. Brazil cannot do that, their currency tanked already and they have issues with inflation as is..

If owning real estate is what distinguishes the winner from the loser, Macy’s or Sears would never been in trouble. BAM is basically doubling down on bricks and mortar retailing here. My thinking is that the crisis is an accelerant for secular change. Sure, most people will go back into malls eventually, but some may just go less or stay away entirely. I if sales /sqft are going to be permanently reduced by 10% for example , it will probably reduce the EV by 20% or if you are levered 50% equity/ 50% debt, you equity aus worth 40% less.

Some on this board hate FRFHF/FFH, but what are your thoughts on MKL relative to FFH? Do you just like the S&P500 plus portfolio returns Markel delivers better than the deep value dumpster-diving Prem prefers? FFH seems pretty cheap right now too, and I've considered adding to my baby position. There is a whole lot more pessimism built into FFH right now because people don't believe the investment results will be good going forward. From 60% of book, they don't have to be great to get a decent return in the equity. But I think investing is hard, and Prem is fundamentally a good investor who made a couple large bad bets (particularly deflation hedge which might have become pretty valuable around now) which really dented performance. If you back out the losses from that large bet, results are only mediocre since 2010. BRKB> MKL>> FFH, imo. Based on current prices, risk adjusted.. Also worth a look: TRV , CB (own a bit TRV). Today, I added some BRKB

Looking at both BUD and ABEV, I agree with you that ABEV looks more attractive.

I also added GD and TRV and restarted CMCSA and ORI. Strange disconnect in the Market, some stocks go to the moon, others into the doghouse.

Re India - GDP growth isn’t everything. India has substantial problems. For example inflation picked up from ~5% in 2019 to 7.35% lately. That’s a huge headwind as it causes a weakness in exchange rates relative to the dollar if purchase parity is kept. The valuations on India that I am seeing are just no attractive considering this backdrop. You can buy bald for book value and with 20% ROE in Brazil right now if you care, but the country is run by a moron and the economy is probably going totally into the toilet as they can’t borrow for nothing like the US can. You can make a lot of money when the situation improves and they rerate, but they also can do an Argentina and you are out of luck. For the time being, I‘d rather be in anything dollar or Euro denominated.

You are missing that the market is not driven by fundamentals right now. That said, I like some of SAM’s beers . The Octoberfest (Märzen) is one of my favorite beers as I prefer malty beers over very hoppy ones ( IPA‘s etc)

Can you imagine if Obama or W. Bush gave this job, during a pandemic with 70k deaths so far, to his cousin or brother-in-law or whatever? Deep state is to blame. It's a witch hunt - nobody wants to work for El Presidente. Only some true patriots like Jared-boy are sacrificing their lives and working 24 hour days covering the holes left by the evil apparatchiks who are gleefully pushing for Trump's downfall! Shame on deep state! Go Jared-o! Make vaccine great again! In my opinion, Trump is just Chavez with a better starting point in terms of institutions and economy. Chavez was roasted early on for running the country “like his hacienda“, that’s exactly what Trump does. Chavez even had his own news show on TV where he would endlessly blabber nonsense without script just like Trump “Coronavirus show”. Both are populists . They are really two sides of the same coin. Given enough time ( which he won’t have because of term limits) we would end up at the same point.

For the coagulation part, it's been suggested that anticoagulation could be associated with a better outcome for more severe presentations but most people admitted in ICUs these days typically get anticoagulation anyways so this does not seem promising in terms of more than a possible marginal improvement in some cases. The more promising treatment options will likely directly interfere with the viral load itself and not with the consequences of the virus. Yes, my wife works with dialysis patients exclusively and there are a lot of them them need dialysis to due to COVID complications (kidney shutting down). She noticed right away during the week in late March with COVID patients that here dialysis machine was jamming up and something was wrong with the blood of these patients. It is true the the doctors now right this with blood thinners and also clot busters. It is tricky for my wife, because if something goes wrong these patients can bleed out in minutes. Still, the prognosis for these patients doesn‘t seem that great, from what I am hearing from my wife. The real breakthrough for outcome will be to prevent this Complication of organs shutting down to begin with, imo (talking as a layman here).

There a certain age bias in this current situation , both on terms of health as well as financial risk. Zell has a lot more to lose than to win at this Point than let’s say a 30 year old private equity guy. First, he has a much higher chance to get killed by this disease, second with this being an unprecedented situation l he really doesn’t know how this plays out economically. So he won’t play until he sees it, plain and simple. Compare this to a 30 year old private equity guy who probably is willing to roll the dice with other people’s money and if it doesn’t work out, he is just going to try again a couple of years later with a different shop. The different starting situation and incentives lead to different decision making bias.

BUD looks quite cheap and the debt manageable, but (six) they generate a bit more than 40% of their revenues in South and middle America. I can easily see the EBITDA getting a haircut by 20% just from currency movement alone (the Mexican Peso is down more than 20% against the USD), so that’s one Problem . Even besides the currency issue, I don’t expect the emerging markets to do well. Typically a company operating these countries in scale would issue debt in local currencies too to hedge. But that would cost higher interest rates obviously. I haven’t been able to see, if BUD did that or hedged the current exposure by other means.

Please get back on topic - nasty disease, death, ventilators , lack of testing. Plenty to discuss without each other calling names.?