Spekulatius

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case). So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month. Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later. I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June. Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint. I guess you are saying that we cannot reopen and keep the R0 below one. And that any significant reopening (e.g. one that includes schools) will spread the virus across (most of) entire population if we look at ~12-18 month period. Unfortunately, this sounds a possible - and grim - scenario. Basically this will cause IFR deaths across 40-70% of population. Plus whatever non-fatal Covid aftereffects. I don't think I can suggest a way out unless cure or vaccine or both are discovered faster than in 12-18 months. You are quite possibly right that lockdown with R0 < 1 won't work for 12-18 months. Perhaps social distancing, hand washing and masks after lockdown will be enough to prevent full spread of the virus. Perhaps in US the car culture will be another factor to limit the spread. But I think I agree with you that it won't be easy to avoid bad scenarios if there's no cure/vaccine soon. Yes, that’s my thesis. I don’t think we have the capacity to test and track. It is important to keep in mind that R0 is an average number, but I think the outbreaks are going to be local with R0>>1, if a company or school opens up and probably will be detected only once we have 50 cases or so, given current testing constraints. What we really would need to do is having the capacity to test asymptotic people preemptively , which right now is not the case. Currently, we do not even screen high risk personal (health care workers ) preemptively. Perhaps, the preemptive measures we have taken (Masks, Hand washing, separation ) are preventing high R0 generally, but I doubt it. I do think that the states and countries that are opening up will provide some interesting data in a couple of weeks (4-8 weeks).

high quality, best of breed, widow and orphan stock are not adjectives I would use to describe companies where the only question is if they survive. guess that's what makes a market. ä I‘d rather take my chances with Mexican airports. People will fly again, it may take some time, but they will have use airports than for sure. I also never heard an airport operator going bankrupt although this doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

For context Chelsea is the hardest hit community in MA. ~1500 confirmed cases are 3.8% of the population. Sot this means that undetected cases are 8x confirmed cases. It’s similar NY antibody study actually. But this also means that the rest of MA is still Far behind and the rest of the US Even more so. But you are correct, Chelsea may be on the way to herd immunity, if immunity exists.

SD is describing a yieldco like a REIT or pipeline company. Those often have substantial leverage and can easily get impaired. I guess you have to pick them carefully, as is always the case.

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case). So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month. Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later. I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June. Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint.

Lots of liquor stores and distilleries or even wineries are selling hard to get hand sanitizers now. It’s a great thing that ethanol has many different uses, Some point out not to drink hand sanitizers, which doesn’t make sense anyways economically, because that stuff sells for similar prices than booze.

Wasn’t that sold as a mini Berkshire at some point? I think it was a hedge fund guy who took control, if I remember correctly . However, running an insurance do isn’t easy as the investors in . and TPRE found out.

According to the latest WHO information there is no evidence getting infected with Covid will provide immunity to future infections. That's why they warned against "immunity passports". I agree, but they are gambling on this. If we can’t get immunity an vaccine very likely won’t work reliably either and we are in deep trouble with 2-3 million excess dead in the US alone after this has run its course. That is unless we found ways to reduce the IFR rate, which I think is somewhat likely, but by how much? I also think we are gambling on this without explicitly stating so. At least in parts of the US like NYC we probably reach herd immunity before any vaccine is coming to the market one way or another.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I think at this point, the Swedes have done OK in my opinion. As long as their health care system isn’t crashing in Stockholm, where the population density is highest, their approach isn’t really a failure. They try to get herd immunity at an acceptable cost (in terms of lives). So far, by their own judgement, that is still the case and who are we to judge otherwise? Also, besides that , Sweden isn’t really normal either, they just have a soft shutdown instead off hard one. not too different from what we have in some states in the US. https://www.thelocal.se/20200424/interview-isabella-lovin-coronavirus-the-biggest-myth-about-sweden-is-that-life-is-going-on-as-normal

Possibly loss of muscle mass if you can't work out at home. Muscle loss would be a slow process? Maybe stress from this situation leads to eating and drinking more? I have seen garbage food being sold out (SPAM, MAC and Cheese) etc being sold out at supermarkets early on ,but that’s over know. That is actually similar to 9/11 the same thing happened , but less severe. In a crisis, people tend to eat garbage food or food that they have eaten as a child. I have a home gym and live pretty much in the country side. I can see that it feels different ,if you live in the 6th floor in a NYC apartment.

Spekulatius, how do you compare these with FRA.DE (Frankfurt Airport). Lower country and regulatory risk in Germany I would think. Well, Germany has less country risk and I think returns need to be adjusted for country risk. Then on the other hand, Fraport balance sheet is far worse, with debt being 3.5x EBITDA going on and it was rising due to a buildout program. I think they need to readjust their strategy around this, as capacity may not be needed a long time. I think air travel will need a long time to recover - many years to get back to peak levels in 2019. I think there will be very little air travel for the next 12 month. FRA.DE should be fine, the state Hessen owns the majority of shares and will support with loan guarantees if necessary, but let’s face it all thee airports are impaired for years. I sold my Fraport shares that I initially bout buying the dip at a loss for a bit more than 42 Euros. There is a Lot of stuff that will recover faster than air travel, especially international air travel.

Pretty stable myself around 168 pounds. I am on low carb diet since about 9 month ago. Regardless of lockdown, why would anyone have a drastic weight change 6 weeks into this?

Huh? Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen before bashing it https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/04/24/trump-georgia-reopening

Are you sure it's the right link? Works for me, but I am also member . I logged out and repost: https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

For sure. But does the currency risk matter in the 5-10 year time frame? I know it has been hit hard in the last couple of months, but doesn't that even out over time? You said you've been looking into them. Any thoughts? I like OMAB. It’s more of a business destination, which might recover faster than tourism. I think their net debt negligible, so they should survive even a lengthy downturn. I wouldn’t expect much business for the next 12 month and hopefully a recovery after.

I went on a walk on a trail today. Nobody was wearing a mask. I felt ridiculous. To be fair, I think the chance of an Infection outside is minimal if you keep some distance (although many don’t do so either).

This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early. https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

If credible evidence is presented that Biden is indeed a rapist, he is done as a Candidate. FWIW, this topic doesn’t belong in this Thread as it is OT.

This is a noteworthy data point that I didn't keep up on--I thought it was always 6, not 14. Thanks for the update, Spekulatius . Well it’s a small dataset and shouldn’t be taken for face value it rather as a ballpark idea one what the distribution may look like. Once we get more data coming in, we might revise. Softly the ~1% IFR rate is a reasonable ballpark I tighten 0.5% or 15-, but it’s unlikely to be 0.1% or 5% at this point. None of this is set in stone. Doctors will get better at fighting this as we get a better understanding of how the disease works and how to prevent the downward spiral that seems to affect some patients.

I am looking at them too, they have very low debt. I think you need to include country risk - Mexico will get disproportionately hard hit and they currency lost already 20% Relative to the USD and may devalue more.

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective. On thing I overlooked when looking at the IFR rate is that death cases have a long tail. They typically occur many weeks after the infection and display of symptoms Example of this was the Diamond Princess when only 6 death were reported first, but subsequently ended up with 14 dead. While that is a small sample size, I think the likely conclusion is that the IFR rate is higher than the ~0.7% rate calculated probably by as much than a factor 2 It’s all highly uncertain at this point and ballpark estimates, but better than nothing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess ...and normalize with respect to the age. The median age of the passengers was 69. I believe all of the deaths were passengers. So, if you assume IFR of ~1.4% for that old-age population group, the IFR for the entire population would be much, much lower. Yes, but the crew is substantial ( think it’s roughly 1 crew member for 2 passengers) and the crews median age is 36. Also, the older folks on a cruise are probably healthier than average for their age. So count it all in and it biased old but not that old. It still doesn’t matter, the point I was trying to make is that many death occurred way later.

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective. On thing I overlooked when looking at the IFR rate is that death cases have a long tail. They typically occur many weeks after the infection and display of symptoms Example of this was the Diamond Princess when only 6 death were reported first, but subsequently ended up with 14 dead. While that is a small sample size, I think the likely conclusion is that the IFR rate is higher than the ~0.7% rate calculated probably by as much than a factor 2 It’s all highly uncertain at this point and ballpark estimates, but better than nothing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

Brazil is going to be interesting to watch. These countries can’t borrow for zero interest like the EU and the US can do. Also, the president running the country is a clown. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/25/brazil-becoming-coronavirus-hot-spot-as-testing-falters.html

There is a bunch of companies like CVNA that seem to have money losing business models even at scale , yet they seem to continue to trade based on news flow. I thought getting into a bear market would expose these companies, but if anything, it seems to be that the trading on news flow narrative in the face of crappy Fundamentals has become worse. I don’t get it.

The best political ads the democrats can run for the election are just going to be short clips from his daily WH COVID-19 news briefings.