Spekulatius

Smart move. Buy low, sell high.

Pretty much everything thwt Malone has done outside of the US has gone bust. Malone’s model (regulatory capture/ benign competition in combination with low cost of capital) doesn’t not work outside of the US. At least one factor fails and often enough both.

I think the consumer not shopping at those dinky retailer ADS serves is a bigger problem than medical costs.

10x EBITDA leverage on mostly retail assets, Nobody else comes close.

Yeah, makes no sense to me. The lack of buybacks is a positive in a way, since last buybacks would have occurred at higher prices.

SD, as we know him, uplifting and practical.

Cash is roughly 30%. I have various accounts to, I don’t keep track of it too closely. I was at 50% when I went bananas selling more than aweigh about, but then bought back too early. Should have just sat it out. I am Down less than 20% from the peak, but it it feels bad enough. The stock sales are clearly liquidity & index selling driven, so my thesis is that there will be amazing bargains available at some point. Look at 100 year copper prices to get some clues. Oh, the Dr Copper thesis? I guess we still have a lot of air underneath Cu prices, as they were below $1/pound for long periods of time., but I am not sure if that what you are referring too.

Cash is roughly 30%. I have various accounts to, I don’t keep track of it too closely. I was at 50% when I went bananas selling more than aweigh about, but then bought back too early. Should have just sat it out. I am Down less than 20% from the peak, but it it feels bad enough. The stock sales are clearly liquidity & index selling driven, so my thesis is that there will be amazing bargains available at some point.

I am not afraid of the stock declines, but I didn’t sleep well this night (first time) and worried about two things : 1) Health my family and elderly parents. My live in Germany and are around 80 years old, prime targets for the Virus so to speak. Same for my mother in law who live on the Bay Area, CA, which is already crazytown. 2) I am concerned about a deep recession and possibly the financial system cracking. Today’s Fed action was very telling as it seems that banks or other actors are short on cash. We saw already Boeing drawing down their credit lines as an indicator and financials falling like they go outmoded business next week. Looks just like September/ October 2008 to me. I bet banks need all the liquidity right they can get. Same with the energy sector which looks doomed to me and will have many companies blowing up, including perhaps some integrated second Tier players. Was a net seller of stocks today (sold in the mini bump following the Fed announcement ). Not fun. The only sale that Made Green was from my Tequilla Stock (CUERVO.MX) and that stock isn’t even cheap.

Just got back from work (yes I am still going to my office) and hat a chat with our supply chain manager who was back at the office too (he was off Office out last week). He told me that Trump‘s speach last night caused a lot of trouble that he has been working last evening too fix, because of confusion that the ban on flight might also affect trademark good. It seems that our POTUS stated that all to Europe are halted, but what he really meant and apparently later clarified in tweet is that it only affects people traveling and not the trade of goods of course, but many didn’t get that part of the message. Life goes on (he was a lot on the phone this AM), but of course none of this is helping. Tomorrow we have a visitor from France (no idea how we got there ) with a full room of people bd there were some haphazard safeguards (signing a form that you don’t have fever) which seem more like legalese BS, but doesn’t really do anything to make anyone safer. Interesting times.

I hope they are buying back as much as possible. But loan losses could rise soon, so they will have to reserve more. I think they are buying back less than you may think. maybe even nothing. There is an economic storm coming and nobody knows how bad is going to get. Unfortunately they shot most of their wad (excessive capital ) at way higher prices.

Finally starting to see a few good companies get cheap (most of these are narrow moat -- wide moat businesses are still very expensive): Gildan - death of events is going to kill their printwear business for a few years but this is trading at prices first seen in 2007. QSR - not sure why this is selling off. People are still going to drink Tim Hortons! Lot's of debt though. And 3G is on a major losing streak. ULTA OTEX BKNG - Cheap, but I think it will get much cheaper MSM - distributor's FCF is countercyclical DIS GOOG - ad revenue is going to get slaughtered due to travel, etc. But large cash hoard... TRIP - wide moat, bad business. But will not recover for a long time... I am still raising cash, but starting to get in the buying mood. Edit: done raising cash. Starting to look for bargains in the carnage. No compounders brothers’s portfolio is complete without MA and/or V. Defense : LMT, to a lesser extent GD ( which I own a little of) Airbus: commercial aerospace - BA got its wings clipped AMZN - #1 in , cloud service MCO, SPGI - Financial plumbing The combo UTX/RTN looks pretty good too, if P&W ever gets the geared turbofan engine to work well

Risk-free + risk premium. In 2016, it was around 5% at a 2% risk-free rate. Maybe it's dropped to 4% or 3% as risk-free has gone down. Or maybe higher as risk premium goes up. You can run a sensitivity. The same way negative interest rates in Europe and Japan affect equity valuation. Zilch. If rates go negative and valuations do not move, private equity will have a bonanza in the US. I think they will be licking their wounds for years, after we get a downturn.

Sounds like a good idea, but that’s not how it works.

Angling for Darwin awards. I couldn't be more delighted with our fearless leader. Everyone stay healthy, including our president. Potus seemed shattered in tonight’s speech, very atypical for him.

Angling for Darwin awards.

That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices. Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office? Works better for some jobs than others. I also support manufacturing , so I need to be on the floor sometimes. Then there is the informal exchange that happens because people run into each other or keep over coffee even. A lot of these will be missed when everyone works from his little home island. And how do you get to know people even if you only work remotely? I think a combination of both is ideal.

Downwards if I had to bet. Some other news: -March madness 2020 without fans -NBA 2020 season cancelled -Tom Hanks & wife are infected? Yep, even the last holdout got the idea that it’s not just the flu any more. Probably another limit down day.

Fascinating. Do Americans even eat that shit? If you have Covid-19, do you want to spend 45 minute boiling chickpeas, or do you want to throw a frozen lasagna or frozen pizza into the oven? Brown rice, lol. SJ Brown rice is easy to make. 15-20 minutes in our small steamer oven or even in the microwave. Healthier than white rice. I went low carb, so switched to granulated cauliflower or quinoa.

Seems like a good thing/collaboration. AMZN is going to be a winner out of the epidemic ordeal. Malls are getting whacked and I think for many stores that are faltering anyways, that this’ll be the death blow. More volume will move online, and AMZN wins. I also wonder if a lockdown affects the cloud services. It’s likely that the cloud keeps the lights on longer than a private data center. These crisis accelerate secular changes.

So what’s the VLGEA thesis now? Dead?

Sound like your area is worse off than my area MA/NH border. My wife was at Costco yesterday and noticed that Thai rice was gone , but Indian rice still available. hand sanitizer gone, but most of everything else still available. Our Costco has hired extra people to wipe & sanitize shopping cards and fridge doors etc. constantly. Great idea, imo.

That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices.

I moved 15% at 2800 and another 5% at 2720. I will add 10% at every 100 point drop roughly. Might move it all when things look clearer. I kind of expect to see the 3018 lows tested. My 401k is a small account worth 2 1/2 years of savings for me. I had moved it all to cash when the SPY went to 3050. My other accounts are way more invested unfortunately.

Risk-free + risk premium. In 2016, it was around 5% at a 2% risk-free rate. Maybe it's dropped to 4% or 3% as risk-free has gone down. Or maybe higher as risk premium goes up. You can run a sensitivity. The same way negative interest rates in Europe and Japan affect equity valuation. Zilch.