Rabbitisrich

Enoch1, if you are starting an inference by assigning some high probability to the virgin birth story ( ), then your statement is correct. But the whole trick is that initial assignment of probability! Of course, looking back at one specific instance of a birth, there are various possibilities. It could have been a spontaneous virgin birth, or an alien impregnation, or an affair through wedlock (for the sake of this argument, no offense intended). How do you decide between the possibilities? The scientific method doesn't lead you directly to the anwer. It only provides relative frequencies. You would look for an explanation that requires the least conjectured inputs to result in that birth. It can be frustrating because we are used to looking for answers that improve explanatory power, but that is the nature of seeking an explanation for a given event. Did your parents leave gifts for you on Christmas? Or did Santa Claus embed directions into their minds while existing in a state that is invisible to detection? Both are possible, but one explanation is much simpler.

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Global-Credit-Perspectives-May-2012.aspx Even his cautionaries look good. Tight lending standards will become less tight as prices bottom and kids living with their parents represent future households after a few years of balance sheet repair.

I'm not offended or trying to jump on you, but this sentiment flies in the face of massive evidence to the contrary (although evidence isn't religion's strongsuit) Predominantly atheist countries have lowest crime rates: http://www.nairaland.com/121066/predominantly-atheist-countries-lowest-crime Despite being roughly 5-8% of the population, atheists make up only aboout .2% of prisoners http://www.holysmoke.org/icr-pri.htm It's interesting that if you look at non-theistic movements that have resulted in atrocities (cultural revolution, Stalinist purges, North Korea, arguably Nazis) you see the "worship" of some idealized superior. The people are unified through rituals, shared symbolisms, and the fear of a great enemy. Some popular atheists like Dawkins and Hitchens promote the idea of non-theism as a solution to the man's ills but call me skeptical.

Yeah, I didn't mean to offend anyone either. My point is that you can draw misleading conclusions about a factor (religion) by looking at an associated attribute ("virtue"). For one thing, this method doesn't tell you anything about the frequency of "virtue" relative to other associated attributes. It also falsely passes the morality of an ostensible result to the cause without checking if a cause has other, less desirable effects. It's just not a powerful way of explaining things, in my opinion. If you sponsor a young black athlete because you are sure that black people are great at sports, then you might have greatly improved the lives of that athlete and everyone he meets. You may also be one bad experience away from purchasing a white hood and a flammable cross.

Is there any evidence for this in a modern context? It would be difficult to have a natural experiment because the type of factors that change marital relations probably touch on a range of cultural issues. Wouldn't we expect to see something like an increase in violent crime by males increase among age groups given lower marriage rates?

What's interesting about religion is that it can take any form from the genocide and mass rapes of Midianites to the search for eggs on Easter. The virtue of the religion isn't related to the forthcoming virtuousness of the society. By the way, when we say virtue, we are all talking about the same thing, right?

Strong communicators. Change the industry terminology and they could have been talking about BAC.

I used to hold a fair amount of insurance companies and a big part of the thesis consisted of underlevered balance sheets, unused capacity, and aggressive buybacks (AFG, HCC, TRV). The trade-off is increasing yield piggishness.

The discount rate used for the balance sheet PBO deficit is less ridiculous than the rate for pension expense. IF we are approaching a bottom for margins then you can add capitalized operating leases, any additional PBO estimate, and arrive at a decent trailing enterprise yield (ignoring w/c effects for the numerator). I passed on the investment because it puts you in the odd position of having to get interest rate moves right for a grocery store. You also have to know that margins have bottomed. Also, comp store sales ex/fuel surpassed the inflation rate in only 3 of the last 10 years. The pension issues don't seem large enough to warrant a short. Is there an expectation that one the members of the pension trust is insolvent enough to leave a hidden future obligation?

These guys never normalize these slides to account for the cost of servicing the debt. (and the rates are primarily fixed given that's it's mostly mortgage) Let's review: 1) The debt service costs are nearly the lowest in 30 years 2) The mortgages are paid off in 30 years without extra payments (so who cares how big they are) 3) Cash flow matters -- slides ignore cash flow Yeah good point. The FHFA posts a monthly survey of purchase SFR mortgages. Adjustable rate share fell from 35% in 2004 to 5% in 2010.

Moar! Uccmal, moar dinner notes!

Cool, thanks for the report and prospecting list, NormR.

Touch display advertisements mid-transit sounds dangerous. It would be interesting to integrate Pandora/Spotify/Sirius type services to provide discounts and such when you approach participating stores. One day we might see neighborhoods effectively compete for drivers through the "radio" and "cell phones" (whatever form they take in the future).

The 10 year scale also includes losses from the sale of Dominick's in 2002. FCharlie, any particular reason that you use Adjusted CFO - CAPEX for your valuation? I just assume that working capital adjustments wash out over time so I start from Adjusted EBITDA and work to CAPEX (although I leave in tax benefits for impairments). Both methods provide attractive trailing FCF yields, but there is about a $384 M difference over the last 4 years cumulative.

Thanks for sharing. Interesting site too. I like his decomposition of employment-population and investment % of gdp by decade. As unfair as Krugman can be (most recently misrepresenting Steve Keen w/ no apology forthcoming) he has been pretty on the ball with bigwigs like Taylor and Fama.

The tangible bv per share from 4Q11 of $12.95 excludes NET dta but includes msr. The 2011 AR talks about balance sheet effects on page 246. Keep in mind that BAC reports Tier 1 common on a fully phased in basis. All carryforwards are excluded and qualifying net dta, msr, and investment interests can only amount to 15% of Tier 1 common (and they also receive a 2.5x risk weighting (I think!)).

It's interesting that the allegations against Gu Xilai begin with evidence gathered by Wang Lijun, the former police chief who visited the U.S. consulate. Chinese authorities did not autopsy Heywood, and they cremated his body within 36 hours of discovery. The reports of cyanide stem from Lijun's personal investigation within those 36 hours. Now "chinese officials" are leaking narratives about motivation and means. One often quoted "source", Wang Kang, is alternatively described as a "liberal academic", "well-connected businessman", and "film-maker" whose sources include "officials close to the case" and "family members of Bo Xilai". This case is reading like the annual report of a reverse merger company.

Not exactly. In 2001 sales were $34.3 billion and gross profit was $10.6 billion. In 2011 sales were $43.6 billion and gross profit was $11.8 billion. Sales have not doubled, they have increased only 27%. Store count is down 6%. You are correct that gross margin has fallen. It has declined from 30.9% in '01 to 27% in '11. The decline in gross margin may be due in part to increased fuel sales. The stock price is 50% lower. EV/EBITDA has declined from 8.0 at the end of 2001 to 4.8 at the end of 2011. Another factor gross margin decline is the change in accounting for Blackhawk revenues. Not sure why management is so confident that margins are approaching a bottom. Why maintain debt at 5X EBIT after 4 years of negative real comps? Operating and administrative costs were 24.7% of sales in 2011 compared to 23% in 2001. Kroger grew comps at 4.9% (and uses a 4.6% pension discount rate FWIW) while Whole Foods grew at 8.5%. Safeway competes for customers who seek an experience a little better than Ralph's and cheaper than Whole Foods, yet closer than Costco or Wal-Mart. Fresh and Easy is throwing money to compete against Pavilions and QFC targets the same customers as the Safeway brand. The future is uncertain enough to justify lower leverage.

Other reports indicated that the Credit Suisse number referred to the total MEP trust shortfall. Safeway does use a fairly high discount rate of 4.9% to determine pension obligations. That is hardly down from 2006. Look at the sensitivity analysis on page 26 of the 2011 10-k. The discount rate seems to be based upon their non-pension cost of debt, but their pension returns have substantially underperformed that benchmark over the last 10 years. Does anyone worry that management changed accounting for Blackhawk simply to bulk up sales and diminish the operating expense ratio? They don't record a valuation allowance or accept recourse risk, so accounting for receipts on a gross basis only adds noise to the gross margin %. Thanks for bringing up this idea. It's worth looking into.

Why didn't you simply employ a Martingale strategy as described by David Choe on the Howard Stern show? I have cashed out my investment accounts and am heading to Macau to make serious +EV. Will keep everyone updated!

This is no big deal. As the article stated, AIG already returned to securities lending which was a major factor in its collapse. At least the focus on apartments implies a cash flow focus rather than a capital appreciation strategy (well, maybe).

Does BBY discuss the effect of different sales/use tax collection upon state market share? Or has anyone found any research on the matter?

Alwaysinvert, have you circulated around various investment related conferences? Perhaps consider offering your free services to a reputable fund. It's an unorthodox path, but you have a rather unconventional story. It's a good way to network and even if you don't take a job with another firm, you at least introduce yourself to people who might be useful contacts in the future. You can invest from anywhere that offers an internet connection! Travel, eat great food, meet good folks, and develop your family office at your leisure.

That's why the term "family office" was created.

The relationship might be exaggerated because of the difference in scale between WSBASE and S&P 500 moves. The expansion of the WSBASE absorbs equity moves.