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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. Wow, this is frickin' awesome! Ackman has just gone completely off on Icahn. Patrick Byrne is sitting at home laughing away, polishing his glock. ;D Now, Ichan is going off on both the host and Ackman. Cheers!
  2. Ackman says..."I was afraid of dealing with Carl Icahn, because frankly, Carl Icahn does not have a good reputation!" Swing Ackman, swing...otherwise this guy is going to take you down. Cheers!
  3. Actually, I have to tell you guys the truth...Ackman and Icahn have been feuding on this message board for years under nicknames. Now you guys know why some of our threads go on forever. Actually, they were the ones behind the LVLT thread. ;D Cheers!
  4. Icahn's best quote..."On Wall Street, if you want a friend, get a damn dog!" Cheers!
  5. Everybody on Wall Street is going to be talking about this. I think this is just the start of a very long-time feud now. Cheers!
  6. This is so damn funny! Icahn's such a dick...very funny. Cheers!
  7. Are you guys watching this right now on CNBC?! Ackman was on there talking about Icahn, and now Icahn has called in to refute comments live...turn your damn television sets on...this is the new version of Jersey Shore! What are these two morons thinking? Cheers!
  8. That's funny, how are Google's margins faring the last few quarters? Unless you have a monopoly, margins will always contract due to competition. That was always my argument with Apple when the bulls were rampant. Now, how do investors explain the difference in valuation between Google and Apple? How is Google's moat any better or worse? And then let's compare Amazon as well on a valuation basis relative to those two...which is the priciest of them all. Cheers!
  9. You guys are assuming that the cash needs to be brought back here? Why? Apple's manufacturing is in China. There are options available to them to increase shareholder value without repatriating capital. Cheers!
  10. Hi Bmi, cash per share is higher than what you have...about $103/share now after all current liabilities are paid and it will be closer to $120/share after current liabilities are paid by mid-year. $450-$120=$330, $330/$45=7 times earnings assuming no growth from here. That is the magic number for us when we start to look at investments! In a year, the moat has just gotten bigger...in terms of stickiness. Once you start using an iPhone, iPad and Mac, it will be difficult not to continue and even add other Apple products like Apple TV. Google is not an issue, as I see the current environment akin to Coca-cola and Pepsi. Both will do well, both will make money and both will dominate the landscape. Our purchase is like Dell...we buy for years out, but if the market values it up quickly, we are happy to walk away with the profits. At 7 times earnings after taking cash into account, Apple is cheaper than Microsoft after cash, and 45% of Google's valuation after cash...does that difference in valuation make sense? To us it doesn't. It's a 5% position right now, which is a third of a full position for us...I hope it keeps going down. Cheers!
  11. Nibble on Apple and sit on the rest until something else comes your way. We are sitting on 40% cash right now too! Cheers!
  12. The thing is, who is going to bid on DELL if Michael Dell is part of the Silverlake consortium? It's far more likely that it's a go on Silverlake or no-go at all. Yeah, that's what the article pretty much says. It will be that deal and you will see lawsuits fly, and eventually they will be settled and the deal consummated. Cheers!
  13. Article on the feud, and the past experience behind the feud, between Carl Icahn & Bill Ackman. Very funny that both of these schmucks think they are the pillars of ethical behavior! Although I am always entertained by Ackman's presentations...whether I agree or not. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/icahn-says-no-respect-for-bill-ackman-after-herbalife-bet.html
  14. Silverlake deal unlikely to be topped according to this article. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-lakes-bid-likely-best-022540063.html
  15. About right for the institutions! ;D Cheers!
  16. Well said Sanjeev, as always. Thanks for pointing out the obvious so clearly. I think we could say that growth will stagnate in NA/Europe, but China is such a driver for them. Did you sell your DELL stake or you bought with other funds? We've been averaging out of Dell, so some of those funds went to Apple...as mentioned, Apple is a better company, better competitive advantages, better balance sheet, much more stickier...so you can pay up a bit more with Apple than Dell. We've got a ton of cash though as alot of our investments went up through 3rd & 4th quarter 2012 and so far 1st quarter 2013. If it keeps dropping, we'll buy lots more and swing big! Cheers!
  17. That was actually a pretty good, comprehensive write-up by Brown. Although it covered everything we already knew, I think it laid the case out very clearly. Cheers!
  18. Interview with CEO of Whole Foods, John Mackey. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/off-the-cuff/whole-foods-founder-says-global-warming-not-big-224803744.html;_ylt=AgufCjwa6kMfRGe8hEG5X.qiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4bTg0OHBsBG1pdANDTkJDIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzBHBrZwM3MzExNjRhZC0zZmQ3LTNiZTctYjc5NC1hYWZkYjA3MmRiODYEcG9zAzUEc2VjA01lZGlhQkxpc3RNaXhlZExQQ0FUZW1wBHZlcgMxZWU1YTRkMC02NjQxLTExZTItYWRmNS0xZDYzZWZmZGExNjM-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3
  19. Hi Hyten, That's the thing, we never know how far something will drop. For us, a full position is 15%...and our max goes up to 25%. Currently this is a 5% position. I hope it goes to $300. Cheers!
  20. http://www.internetretailer.com/2013/01/24/overstock-boosts-sales-and-profits I sold half my position today. The position became too big and the investment thesis has played out pretty much as I wanted. I would have liked to see a big short squeeze. Good for you! I would have liked to see the squeeze too. ;D Cheers!
  21. If you priced Apple at the same level as Google's current multiple backing out cash after all current liabilities and debt are paid, Apple would trade at $850-900 a share. But Google is trading at a somewhat lofty multiple! So reduce Apple's multiple after backing out cash to 12-15 times. That would give you a share price of somewhere between $650-750. Where it was before the current correction. The market assumed that Apple would grow at 25% plus a year for the next ten years. Now they think Apple is going to grow at less than 5% a year for the next ten years. The truth lies somewhere in the middle! Cheers!
  22. Great! I couldn't be happier if it does hit $300. I think Apple could retire a crapload of shares too at that point. ;D Cheers!
  23. Agree that price seems to be irrational- could they just not have any growth, just maintain current profit/market share and just buyback their stock at 7x earnings with their free cash flow-that would result in decent return. (Of course you never know what management will do-maybe they will do something dumb- but with current price I think you have some safety built in.) Hi Bill, That's what they need to do. They can pay the current dividend and still buy back $20B plus a year in stock. They could still double their R&D spend and do all of that. Google and Apple will battle it out for years now. They will integrate their products into everything we do. Once they have you locked up in their system, it will be tough for people to want to switch out unless there is another game-changing product. Cheers!
  24. Why don't you look at the numbers and then we can discuss. I have looked at the numbers, so ready when you are. iPhones ASP of iPhones fell 0.9%. Given that they had huge manufacturing problems, I'm surprised it has held up that well. Both revenues and units grew almost 30% despite shipping problems and a 1 week less in the quarter. Given that they had manufacturing problems and they cut chips orders by half, it is likely they had serious yield issues. That explains the margins. BTW, they are still short of iPhone 4 to this day. iPads The revenue growth dropped significantly due to the mix of the mini. This is not surprising at all. I've said before that the mini is going to be the mainstream iPad. The current iPad will have to evolve to something like a hybrid or be EOLed. Macs They shipped very late in the quarter. There is still a 3-4 week delay meaning manufacturing problems. There is also a secular decline in Macs. Pretty crazy for them not to be able to ship desktops quickly enough when people are shifting to tablets. Bottom line - The iPhone is chugging along fine. Something big going on in Apple's manufacturing lines causing problems. I know they are switching away from Samsung. Could be something more than this. The forecast for next quarter is concerning. This is the irony, isn't it? Both you and the markets are now concerned about the next quarter, while some of us are finally oblivious it to it after the stock has fallen 35%! The nibble is slowly turning into a bite in after hours. I hope over the next week this turns into a complete meal like Dell was a few months ago. Better company, better balance sheet, better brand, greater stickiness of products...I hope it plummets! Cheers!
  25. Great year...but I was less impressed with the 4th quarter where I thought they would have made more. Looks like they increased marketing costs in the 4th. Markets thought different I guess. Cheers!
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