Parsad

Well, I guess ValueInv and Wellmont will be happy...we've started nibbling on Apple stock. Hopefully it keeps going down! Cheers!

Not in my opinion, but the reactions in the price is due to the expectations built around the businesses and expected valuation...not necessarily fundamentals. Cheers!

Whether on purpose or due to competition, their margins have come down quite a bit, and look to drop another percent in the next quarter. Revenue growth was gangbusters, but they are making less money on each sale. More competitive pricing means market share, but it also shrinks profits. iPads seem to be cannibalizing Mac sales nearly as much as they are killing PC sales. Cheers!

Fool.com video...clips of Mohnish in there. Cheers! http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/23/2013-and-beyond-investing-after-the-great-recessio.aspx

Wells increases dividend 14%...looks to return alot more capital after Fed approval. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-increases-quarterly-dividend-213743231.html;_ylt=AppXlnB7KW1373rH94tI8NGiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNycHFxZWNqBG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgTGVmdARwa2cDMzE1ZThiNTUtN2ZhYy0zM2MwLThiZTItN2I1MzU3NGU2YzMwBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2YyZDZjYTIwLTY0ZTQtMTFlMi1iZmZlLTFmZGFmZDY4YWQwYQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Pretty much worthless, but they would still trade at a slight premium because there will be people betting that a higher bid may appear. Once the deal is done, they expire worthless. Cheers!

Redesign of the restaurants: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/18/hooters-redesign_n_2503130.html?utm_hp_ref=email_share#slide=1999851 Also, an update by head office...nice to see that they are improving efficiency and margins. That burn rate every quarter is a killer, so they need to get profitable fast. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chanticleer-holdings-provides-corporate-134500949.html Cheers!

I agree that a "softer" version of #4 is the best interpretation for what HE thinks will happen - a decrease in productive capacity will trigger interest rates to increase, but in my mind that makes the theory [GDP decrease] -> ??? -> [spiking Interest Rates!] I would simply point out that regardless of what holders of sovereign debt choose to do, the Bank of Japan can always set interest rates, as they have the ability to buy every Yen-denominated bond in existence and replace them with reserves, which simply act like checking accounts for banks. I would characterize the risks as institutional, by which I really just mean that the yield curve or the deficit would be mismanaged in such a way that facilitated higher interest rates. Plenty of ways that can happen but Bass sure seems to be suggesting something a little more drastic than an adjustment. One thing is for sure, someone is going to be wrong! Sounds like Bass isn't paying much for the bet, though, so perhaps it's "heads I win, tails I don't lose much". I agree with you JRH. Don't know how he is playing it. The swaps are good for 5 or 10 years out? That time arbitrage is the difficult question. Cheers!

I personally disagree with Bass. Not because it isn't possible, but because it isn't likely. You can itemize the reasons that interest rates spike on sovereign debt and Japan is not standing in the headlights of any of them: 1) They can't control their money supply (i.e. Greece vs. ECB, "gold standard" situations) and debt servicing becomes unsustainable and forms a positive-feedback loop. 2) They peg their currency (target price instead of quantity - Russia 1998) - really just another form of #1 - and the exchange pressures become unsustainable and form a positive-feedback loop. 3) They hold foreign-denominated debt (Argentina 2002) and the domestic currency they print to pay it depreciates faster than they can pay off the foreign debt in a positive-feedback loop. 4) The real productive capacity of the economy collapses (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe). Triggered by extreme societal stresses and a psychological rejection of the currency by the people. 5) The central bank SETS high interest rates in order to stamp out high inflation/high inflation expectations (Volcker, early 80's U.S.). The most viable of these options but certainly not imminent, IMO. By far, I think the most important point is that Japan is sovereign in the Yen and do not have institutional restrictions (gold standard, currency peg, etc...) that prevent them from setting interest rates wherever they want them. Whether they have future inflation is a matter of whether the economy pushes against its productive capacity, and, to a lesser extent, cost of energy, food, and other "inputs". Bass makes it sound like the BoJ can just, whoops!, one day lose the ability to set interest rates wherever they want them. All they have to manage to is aggregate demand unless Japan one day finds itself in one of the situations above. I think #4 is the one that Bass is illustrating in his presentation. Demographics suggest that Japan's social trusts are not only bankrupt, but the underfunding will continue as the population ages, immigration is limited and the number of younger Japanese carrying the burden continues to fall. At some point the Japanese population will realize that the yen will only take them so far in purchasing power. The other issue Bass commented on, related to #4, was if the central bank changes focus to an inflationary environment, why would Japanese institutions continue to hold sovereign debt when they would return 100-150 basis points below real inflation? I don't think it's a slam dunk like Bass suggests, but it is possible that Japanese institutions start to shift capital out of Japanese sovereign debt, and that's when the yield curve begins to shift because the government still needs to fund their expenditures. At best, this increase in the rate that Japan would have to pay would begin to show up in swaps, and you would start to see the world focus on Japan's finances. Cheers!

Why is it that investors, and analysts in particular, always expect such linear growth? That's probably why surprises send the markets in a panic. Cheers!

I can't believe I actually know what you are referring to. They don't make them like Jean Claude Van Damme anymore. Don't mess with me, I'm a Kumite champion. He was actually pretty good as the bad guy in Expendables 2. Yes, I did actually see that movie! Cheers!

I'm not entering the run, but I'm going to buy myself a pair of those Brooks Cadence Berkshire Hathaway Special Edition running shoes. I'm sure I'll be able to get through 10-Q's as well as those grinding 10-K's much quicker! ;D Cheers!

By the way, that's a fantastic presentation by Bass. Again, I agree with pretty much most of the things he said. Cheers!

This evening, Japan's Central Bank and government have announced that they are focusing on a 2% inflation target. Bass was saying in his presentation, that once they move from deflation to inflation, that's the end game because the swaps on the yen move and their interest costs multiply. Now you have a 2% inflation rate, while institutions and your citizens expected to remain in a deflationary environment, retaining an 80-150 basis point difference. Obviously, that cannot exist if the government is now targeting 2% inflation, while their 10 year notes pay 100 basis points and their 30 year notes are paying 200 basis points. Cheers!

Recent, excellent interactive chart from the Economist on developed country debt. Cheers! http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/09/daily-chart-10

One of the best lines I heard regarding gun control was by Stevie Wonder today: "You guys should come with me to a gun store, and see how easy it is for me to get a gun. It's just crazy...me with a gun!" Cheers!

Under the current administration, there is almost zero chance that they will break up the big banks. They have curtailed much of the proprietary and CDS business, while capital levels are as high as they've ever been. It is not in the United States best interest, or Canada's for that matter, to break up the large banks. What they should do is make sure that as they get bigger, their capital ratios remain at high levels and that banks stick to banking, lending and investments. Cheers!

Sunday morning at the Omaha Marriott near Borsheims. Cheers! Actually, sorry Bill. It looks like they moved the event last year to the Omaha Hilton. Go to the MKL thread in the "Investment Ideas" section. They have the email contact at Markel. It used to just be open to everyone, but it looks like it may be by invitation now. Cheers!

Sunday morning at the Omaha Marriott near Borsheims. Cheers!

Article on Ackman's bet against Herbalife. Cheers! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/hedge-fund-mogul-at-risk-of-a-short-squeeze-on-herbalife/article7564065/

That's not a fact. You're wrapping speculation inside of a fact. What's you're saying is: It is factual that I am speculating about the delivery of a phone by the end of February. Just sayin', if we're going to get all meta up in this thread, let's at least be honest about what we're meta-arguing about. -- As an observer and sometimes participant in this thread, I think we're reaching "total fail" territory. My feeling is that the consumer-facing tech investments should be paired with a separate section for "Technology Discussion". There we can participate in all the usual bullshit around tech, without muddying the fundamental analysis that should come along with value investing. If you were serious about trying to understand the intrinsic value of RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT and went to any of those threads, you would be completely lost/discouraged/sucked-into-a-vortex. These threads are the written equivalent of a food fight with a running dialogue so far off the path of value investing that I think it's harming our common goal. Does anyone else tend to agree here? Is this minutiae actually important to valuation? Parsad, any thoughts on this? Hi VAL, I agree with you for the most part, but if you are discussing intrinsic value of any business, be it technology or otherwise, a discussion of the underlying fundamentals and economics of the business, the moats, the weaknesses, etc come into play. Maybe these guys can start a thread for these core companies...Apple and RIM...in the "General Discussion" and discuss more of the technology aspect in there. The only problem is that if anyone is researching those two companies, they aren't getting the full discussion (good or bad) because there would be two separate threads...one covering the valuation and one covering the actual business. It's up to you guys, since there are pros and cons for both. I don't think elaborate discussions of BAC have made that thread any worse, and that is the biggest thread on the board. Cheers!

Thank God for Apple! LOL. Cheers!

Seriously? Can you provide any substantive evidence of your claim? I'm sure that was a generalization, so ignore it. Kind of like how I ignored the comment by the senate candidate who said that "women cannot get pregnant during legitimate rape because they are under too much stress." Democrats are crazy, but there is no one more nuts than some of the guys in the Republican party. Unfortunately, I too have no proof to back that up except for Todd Akin's existence. Cheers!

Before we all get our hopes up, the article is meant to be satirical, not serious. Cheers!

Dell hires Evercore to provide board with fair value analysis of possible offer and if any other bids could be better. It's expected that the offer would value Dell at $23-24B, or around $13-14 per share. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-21/dell-said-to-hire-evercore-to-seek-higher-bids-after-buyout.html?cmpid=yhoo