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Everything posted by Parsad
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Sadly, they only have a civil suit involving him, and it's for $275M...a tiny fraction of his net worth. What they need is to topple his lieutenants and get them to roll over on him. That's the only way they'll be able to take down this white-collared Bonanno wannabe. Kudos to Preet Bharara for digging and digging. Cheers!
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It is, I agree. But with stuff like above, constant changes in management and execution, combined with the sheer size of the turnaround, it will be tough. It is cheap...they start cutting, firing, cleaning house and behaving more shareholder friendly, and you will see a bounce...but can they get that execution? The same bet on DELL, but I think they are a little further ahead on the turnaround, better capitalized and half the size. They also focus on SME's rather than the big boys, so it's a niche they are really starting to get good traction in. Regardless, I love it when entire sectors of companies are viewed as rubbish by markets...always a bargain to be found. Cheers!
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And the Leafs the Cup. Now you're pushing it! The Leafs...the Cup? Well maybe if they shorten the season to six games and they come out gangbusters like last year! ;D Cheers!
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By the way, Schulze or someone else needs to come in, because these guys are following the Lampert Kmart/Sears strategy at the moment...drip, drip, drip away shareholder value. This "Renew Blue" shit drives me crazy! You need to shut 15-20% of the stores down now! Sublease, sell or whatever you have to do. You need to cut G&A by $400M a quarter...simple! Painful, yes...but it has to be done. You can always reopen more stores as housing and consumer consumption increases, but there is a fundamental shift in the way people buy certain non-perishable goods now. Combine that with very defined consumption by a still wary consumer, and you have a business that needs to reexamine its complete footprint. Cheers!
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I wasn't talking about it because I was busy buying more. Sheesh! ;D Cheers!
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Maybe, but I'm betting that institutions will start cleaning house in December, and alot of them will be buying BAC instead, because the market is really starting to figure out that the likelihood of a poor stress test and no return of capital in the new year is now approaching zero. Cheers!
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Is it any surprise that they haven't just plainly said they will proceed with litigation to recover funds that were lost due to fraud. It's $9B in relation to pursuing a case for maximum $100M in litigation...nope! Why is that? I would have to agree that no one wanted to take the blame...accountants and auditors are blaming each other...audit committee is blaming the accountants...CEO and CFO decided to take the pressure off and blame an acquisition. Another winning quarter HP! Cheers!
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Even though Chanos did not call it a fraud outright, his firm did publish a report pointing out highly suspect marketing and accounting practices. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49901000 I know many on this board do not like Chanos ( and shorts in general) due to their emotional attachment to FFH (and EBIX, OSTK etc) but I have to give him credit for pointing out the issues with Autonomy and HP's acquisition before anyone else ( or anyone as high profile as him). Issues which even someone like Klarman did not see. I guess w.r.t HP it's Chanos :1, Klarman : 0 . Kidding of course ;) I don't have a problem with Chanos being a short, or even attacking companies I own...that doesn't bother me. The way they approach it does. Getting reports earlier than the public, hiring detectives, using captive journalists, setting up hostile/libelous websites, moving the stock price by feeding other hedge fund managers, etc. Longs are guilty of such shenanigans as well, and I don't care for those types either. Cheers!
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With the analysts jumping in like this, the dumb money is going to start flowing...hail, hail the institutions and pension funds! ;D You guys laugh, but I still say it hits $12 before this Christmas. It goes over $10 tomorrow. Cheers! You were right not long ago with Overstock, so I don't want to doubt you! I bet heavily on BAC, so I think you are right:) I'm going to give all you guys an early Christmas present. I'm going start eating lunch out of the office regularly like I used to during the old Fairfax days...apparently directly attributable to Fairfax's stock rise of 5% or greater on many days because of my dining habits. So I'm in the office this year until December 21st, then I'm going to go skiing that weekend and I won't be back till January the 3rd. Between now and then, I promise to try and eat out at least twice a week...which is alot, because I honestly prefer to eat at my desk during market hours...that should provide 8 days of 5% gains, or a 40% increase from today...tangible book before Christmas. You guys don't have to thank me...I view it as a personal responsibility for everyone's welfare, and I want you all to have a Merry Christmas. So starting next week, two days a week, you should start to see days of 5% gains or better! ;D Cheers!
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With the analysts jumping in like this, the dumb money is going to start flowing...hail, hail the institutions and pension funds! ;D You guys laugh, but I still say it hits $12 before this Christmas. It goes over $10 tomorrow. Cheers!
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Couldn't agree more Hawk! It's when people think everybody deserves a house...then you get trouble. I think everyone deserves shelter and a place they can call home, with affordable rent for those that are of limited income, but I don't think everyone deserves to OWN a home...just like I don't think everyone deserve to own a car, Rolex watch or Prada suit. It's when people start to desire those things, and see their friends buying such things who can't afford them, then you get things like excesses and bubbles when loose credit becomes available. Keeping up with the Jones' is very expensive long-term! Cheers!
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I have recently, by having been put to at $11 and $10. However, I am thinking this one is too hard and maybe I should cut my losses? We bought a bunch more on Friday. We will keep buying as it drops below our last purchase price. Average in, average out! It's very cheap. The business is a tough one, but the company is being treated as if it's a one-legged pony and going out of business. This is where the metal hits the road...investors start to get scrambly. Remember when BAC was going under at $5? Today they cannot do wrong. You have a company that realistically can generate net profits of about $700M per quarter or close to $3B a year, and it trades for about 5 times their current market multiple. The business has net working capital in excess of $6B. It generates about $4B in operatiing cash flow and only about $500M in capital expenditures...it's a cash cow. What have the executives been guilty of? 1) Not seeing changes in their industry fast enough 2) Overpaying on acquisitions 3) Debateable allocation of cash to shareholders...dividends/stock buybacks 3) is historical. That can easily be modified by shareholder influence going forward, so that the company is better at not overpaying on buybacks and smart enough to suspend a dividend when they should be buying stock. 2) is also historical, but could be the future too since the same management is present. Some of the acquisitions were necessary to change the nature of the business going forward...they were just guilty of overpaying, partly because they needed those businesses. Again, if many of the businesses they acquired continue to grow organically, there is less likelihood of them paying for poor acquisitions and a greater chance that capital could be returned to shareholders. 1) is very important...but also very common. Who didn't see the future incorrectly except for Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos? That's the nature of the technology business. Question is: Does the business and management have the capacity to resurrect itself by changing directions? Microsoft is trying, and may be succeeding. Overstock is trying, and may be succeeding. I've owned both of those businesses in the last year, and heard all of the same arguments that I'm hearing now about Dell, but Microsoft rose 50% from our average cost and then we got out, and Overstock rose 68% from our average cost and we sold a significant portion. Dell will also rebound...maybe 50%, maybe 100%...and I think it will do it within two years. Personally, I think it will be closer to the latter, as the multiple is significantly more compressed. In the meantime, it pays me a dividend bigger than either MSFT or OSTK. Incidentally, MSFT is getting a bit closer to where I'll look at it again. Cheers!
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Have You Bought a Hostess Product in the Last Year?
Parsad replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
If you eat those, then you live in Richmond, BC and are probably a Hong Kong expatriate! ;D I remember when they opened the first one in Richmond...there was a massive lineup...bigger than outside an Apple store when a new phone comes out. All Hong Kong expats! I used to snarf one down too occasionally at the Metrotown store, but now that I've moved, the closest one is near my office on Robson. Cheers! Actually, now that I've read their website, I did not realize they started in Japan and that they have over 250 stores around the world. I always thought it was a Hong Kong thing, as my friends from there couldn't stop talking about it when they opened the first store here. Cheers! -
Have You Bought a Hostess Product in the Last Year?
Parsad replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
If you eat those, then you live in Richmond, BC and are probably a Hong Kong expatriate! ;D I remember when they opened the first one in Richmond...there was a massive lineup...bigger than outside an Apple store when a new phone comes out. All Hong Kong expats! I used to snarf one down too occasionally at the Metrotown store, but now that I've moved, the closest one is near my office on Robson. Cheers! -
That's about right. Cheers!
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Of that $6.3B, BAC had cut $3.65B or 58%! Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-big-us-banks-cut-190532920.html
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You know what? I was one of the first guys to think he could not do this...probably another guy who writes a book, starts a fund, tries to do a turnaround and increase shareholder value...you know, the usual Buffett playbook that every young manager aspires to follow. Well, he's surprised me already. I think he's done a great job at Paragon so far. Doesn't mean much yet, but kudos to Sham for getting to where he is now! He's already saved the company, which would have gone under in another couple of years, and that's saved alot of money for shareholders, as well as some jobs, homes, college plans and just basic living for employees. If it means I have to put up with more books before these young guys even get a job...so be it...I'm a curmudgeonly, grumpy old 40 something! ;D They could be out there torching cars and rioting after a Stanley Cup loss...instead, they are aspiring to be more using a role model we all admire. I'll be really watching to see what he does now, and once again, congratulations to Sham on doing a good job and following his dreams. Cheers!
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In the long interview, I love how the journalists are just looking for that one sound-bite, and Moynihan keeps regurgitating facts, figures and achievements, and screwing up the sound-bite. Cheers!
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Just acquired a property in North Hollywood. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kennedy-wilson-acquires-asset-163909603.html
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Berkshire's HomeServices of America CEO, Ron Peltier, interviewed on CNBC. He's quite optimistic about real estate. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cnbc-29093777/buffett-s-real-estate-man-sees-housing-hope-31159078.html;_ylt=AmbhMiLoYOFiHloZy6JyD6eiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTIzdmNtdHE1BG1pdANDTkJDIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzBHBrZwMzMTE1OTA3OARwb3MDNQRzZWMDTWVkaWFCTGlzdE1peGVkTFBDQVRlbXA-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3#crsl=%252Fvideo%252Fcnbc-29093777%252Fbuffett-s-real-estate-man-sees-housing-hope-31159078.html
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I think we need someone who does some heads-down, boring, unsexy work. I think it doesn't take much vision to do that. I feel that Moynihan is doing exactly that. I always find these comments about Moynihan's "vision" and such to be extremely misguided. He was a subordinate. He worked for a very demanding and controlling boss in Lewis and before that Murray at Fleet. If he had shown vision, we likely wouldn't even know who he is now and certainly not be talking about him. He clearly is never going to be nominated Sexiest and Most Charismatic Banking Chief, but he has 2+ years of taking care of business. I am not sure anything tells us how he will be in the future or in a better (i.e. frothier) banking environment, but in my view the past 2 years of being chief carries more weight than his career as a subordinate. Just my view. People also have to remember that he was not the first choice for any of those subordinate jobs by the people who hired him. But in each one, he went and got things turned around in a hurry. Sometimes visionaries aren't seen as visionaries until they've been given a chance to prove themselves as the leader. It was just over a decade ago that Steve Jobs was considered a petulant, has-been brat. He risked his own personal fortune to create opportunities that were taken away from him at Apple. No one was giving him a chance. He then developed NEXT, then Pixar and then they brought him back to Apple. Today, he's considered a "visionary" and without a doubt, perhaps the best marketer of the last fifty years! Moynihan just needed the chance. When he was given it, he's in there turning things around and changing the culture. We'll only know if there is any "visionary" in him in a decade or so. So far, he's just a great CEO who has orchaestrated one of the best turnarounds in the last decade...the guy with the best turnaround ahead of him was Steve Jobs...not too shabby company! Cheers!
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I don't think they should anything, and just leave the dividend payment to when they do it normally every year. The fiscal cliff at worst is only going to affect tax planning for one year...this year's dividend...after that you will pay regardless. By catering to U.S. shareholders, and only those in taxable accounts, they would be penalizing shareholders in every other jurisdiction (especially Canadian), as they would have received two dividend payments this year. So some people may be pushed over thresholds that claw back on their Old-Age Security or other benefits...even Pharmacare. Fairfax is in the investment business, and you could go so far as to say they are in the tax planning business for shareholders to the extent their ownership is based around the company. But they are not in the tax planning business for their shareholders personal income taxes. Cheers!
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Yes, but it might be the foreign stocks that don't show up in his 13-F. Prem in my opinion is the one who fits the bill, but I'm not sure that was the one he referred to. Cheers!
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I disagree. If you fund all your mortgages through deposits, then you are funding long term assets with short term liabilities. If rates increased equally across the board and spreads stay the same, the cost of all of your deposits will increase whereas only the new loans that you write at the new rates will increase interest income. That should cause a drag on profitability unless you are properly hedged. I didn't say that it would have no effect in the short-term. Bank of America has paid off nearly $200B in long-term debt over 2 years, and funded their business through lower cost short-term Fed funding and deposits. There is no reason why they couldn't adjust over the other way if rates are better on long-term debt. So, I don't see it as a significant long-term problem. Cheers!