Parsad

Article discussing how going forward, there will actually be less slack in the economy as Boomers retire and there simply aren't enough people to replace them. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-06/drop-in-u-s-unemployment-rate-early-sign-of-coming-labor-shift-economy.html

Here are some recent articles on Bank of America and Wells Fargo: BAC http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/06/bank-of-america-wont-predict-outcome-of-stress-tests/?mod=yahoo_hs http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11333843/1/bank-of-america-seen-urging-investors-to-reject-6-offer.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-06/bofa-investment-banking-results-improved-from-third-quarter-moynihan-says.html?cmpid=yhoo http://www.bizjournals.com/triad/news/2011/12/06/bofas-brian-moynihan-reduction-in.html?page=all WFC http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wells-Fargo-well-positioned-rb-3851520105.html?x=0 Cheers!

I think you nailed it on the head Allan! And obviously, there isn't a whole lot different that you would have done over the last decade from what you did. Cheers!

I'm guessing those annual reports aren't available anywhere except for investors in your fund(s)..? Unfortunately yes, as full disclosure of all of our holdings, including our ideas around them, are in the annual reports. Cheers!

Here's their website: http://www.nationalbeef.com/Home.aspx Cheers!

That's why these guys are so good...they go where no one is looking! Leucadia is acquiring control of National Beef Packing Company for $867M. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Leucadia-National-Corporation-bw-1918788710.html?x=0

Wells Fargo CFO, Tim Sloan, says they will definitely be seeking to increase the dividend and buy back shares when they submit their stress test results. Cheers! http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2011/12/wells-fargo-warren-buffett-bank-dividend.html?ana=yfcpc

That's why I'd love to have a Parsad on Investing book (even if it's just a PDF e-book) I'm sure you've had an interesting investing life with lots of insightful anecdotes and learning events.. In any case, just a suggestion. It's easier to ask someone to write a book than to actually write one! Hopefully, at the end of the day 20 years from now...if not longer...our annual reports will be the book if we are fortunate enough to survive and do well. I've got every single Fairfax annual report and it actually tells Prem's story better than anything else. Just like Berkshire's, but I don't have all of the original copies of those! ;D Cheers!

That's the way the Japanese police described this pile-up of 14 cars, which included 8 Ferraris and a Lambourghini. There were no serious injuries. I'm sure Charlie Munger would frown up on it, but as a frugal value investor, I get some delight from this. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/eight-ferraris-crash-at-gathering-of-narcissists-.html

Parsad, have you ever thought about writing a book? Your take on 'Margin of Safety', more or less. I'd read that! Much appreciated, but I have nothing new to add. I'm just stealing from what's already out there. You know, be it in one account or another (personal, corporate, fund), we have owned Berkshire Hathaway now for 13 years. Fairfax now for almost 11 years. Itex for 4 years. Chanticleer 5 years...through the worst periods. Overstock, on and off again for five years, thanks to the volatility. I would still be holding all of my Steak'n Shake if it had not suddenly changed to Biglari Holdings! Another company we just loaded up on, we will hold for at least 5-7 years, if not longer...it's a completely authentic net-net (net cash is greater than market price) and has good growth prospects...we are buying it in all of our accounts. We've been through the tech wreck, 9/11, Hurricane Hugo, Credit Crunch, the Great Recession, Afghani & Iraqi Wars, the fall of governments in Libya, Egypt and now the possible dissolution of the European Union. In that time, I have not spent my days wondering if I should be 100% hedged, while going 100% long. I have not worried about currency fluctuations affecting Berkshire and Fairfax. I did not wonder how a Greek debt failure would affect Itex. I didn't spend a second worrying about whether Hooter's might not sell another chicken wing if unemployment in the U.S. went up. Nor did I care if the housing market would create a catastrophic drop in sales of steakburgers at Steak'n Shake! I sold Steak'n Shake because I didn't like what the CEO was doing ethically, and it had nothing to do with macroeconomics. Go figure! The cash rich, micro-cap company that we loaded up on...how will the European crisis affect the cash on their balance sheet? They aren't leveraged, have no debt, and they are break-even on a quarterly basis or slightly profitable each quarter. What is going to happen in the macroeconomic environment around me that would justify not buying shares in this business. If anything should be a concern to an investor in this circumstance, it would be certifying that the books are authentic and the audit accurate. Not if Italy is going to need a bailout! Ridiculous this notion and one that I have no interest in participating in. If markets go up, and some of our holdings get to fair value, we will sell. If markets go down, we will look for bargains and buy more. That's it! Nothing new...same old, same old. Cheers!

Nope. You're measuring over less than a handful of years. Prem has been so right on macro and made a fortune for Fairfax and its shareholders, but remember that Fairfax was in investment limbo for almost 7 years when they were trying to right the ship. Should people have thrown the baby out with the bathwater then? Seven years ago, Prem was the insurance and investment goat, while Berkowtiz was king. Today Prem is king, while Berkowitz is the goat. In this business, you are only as good as your last game, and I think too many people are getting lumped into the "has-been" column. Very, very few people have a long-term horizon when investing. Many people espouse the philosophy, but in essence they are really traders. I think people should not read into a couple of years over or under performance, but focus on the underlying philosphy, history and discipline a manager brings. Even hard-core value investors carry the same underlying temperament and emotional stability of the general public, and thus you see threads like this pop up over time. When things go sideways for a while, people start to wonder if things are now completely different. But things are never completely different...they just come in a variety of colors. Cheers!

Yes, if they don't set some sort of limit. I would suggest they cancel the visa offer once inventory levels have dropped substantially and prices start on an uptrend. Any longer, and as you mentioned, they are just going to create another bubble. Cheers! or how about letting the market take care of it. you are asking the governement to micro manage the US economy. Not a great idea. Well, you would in effect be letting the market take care of it. Barriers to entry are the same as tariffs on goods. What the government would be doing is actually allowing free market to determine who wants to live in the U.S. and who doesn't. That net immigration would alleviate the economic malaise within the housing market. They would just need to make sure they cap that movement in the market, so that they don't overwhelm their own resources by allowing unlimited numbers of immigrants to come in. Cheers!

Shai Dardashti, of Dardashti Capital, found this compilation of Warren Buffett quotes. It's 62 pages long and has some terrific quotes. Thanks to Shai for sending me the link! Cheers! http://dl.dropbox.com/u/19417186/DCM/Quotations%20-%20Warren%20Buffett.pdf

Yes, if they don't set some sort of limit. I would suggest they cancel the visa offer once inventory levels have dropped substantially and prices start on an uptrend. Any longer, and as you mentioned, they are just going to create another bubble. Cheers!

Conference Board's Employment Trend Index is at the highest level since September 2008. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/job-prospects-index-in-u-s-climbs-to-three-year-high-amid-payroll-growth.html Also, so that I'm not seen completely partial to one idea, the services industry job index (ISM Index) expanded at a slightly slower pace. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/service-industries-in-u-s-probably-expanded-at-fastest-pace-in-six-months.html

Article on the strength of the Canadian loonie. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/loonie-joins-dollar-as-haven-amid-forecasts-for-only-rate-increase-in-g-10.html

Senator Chuck Schumer has sponsered a bill to allow investors to spend $500K to acquire a home in the U.S., live there for 180 days, and in exchange you get a 3-year renewable visa. I think a number of us have mentioned something akin to this on the board. It's a good idea, but they should probably set a limit of the number of such visas they would issue in any given year or going forward. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/45554173

That's quite funny Kraven! Twacowfca, you are correct. You'd be surprised by who reads this board, thus I would suggest everyone be careful how hard you come down on professionals you might read about in the media. Racemize, enjoy the board! There are alot of terrific people on here, who are very knowledgeable about investing and life. Cheers!

Not quite true, as they could suffer a huge insurance loss in any given year like many other insurers. It's just a testament to their skill of pricing insurance contracts, especially Ajit, that they haven't been slaughtered in any given year with a massive insurance loss. That in itself indicates how good they are at risk control, and their ability to view economic and societal risk better than anyone else. People talk about Sokol in the past, and Coombs presently about who should run Berkshire or its investments, but there would be no one better than Ajit who has done probably one of the best jobs in history mitigating insurance risk. There should be a case study on exactly how he prices insurance contracts and what he scrutinizes when doing so...perhaps an entire book written on him and his conduct! Cheers! Just add some AIG FP managers circa pre-2008 and kaboom! I should have just said that his consolidated financials temper the volatility. His WFC stock is down this year but if he owned the whole thing he'd be reporting a consolidated gain as WFC's book has grown. That's really what I meant to convey. Oh I see. Yes, that's absolutely correct. Cheers!

Not quite true, as they could suffer a huge insurance loss in any given year like many other insurers. It's just a testament to their skill of pricing insurance contracts, especially Ajit, that they haven't been slaughtered in any given year with a massive insurance loss. That in itself indicates how good they are at risk control, and their ability to view economic and societal risk better than anyone else. People talk about Sokol in the past, and Coombs presently about who should run Berkshire or its investments, but there would be no one better than Ajit who has done probably one of the best jobs in history mitigating insurance risk. There should be a case study on exactly how he prices insurance contracts and what he scrutinizes when doing so...perhaps an entire book written on him and his conduct! Cheers!

Incidentally, we aren't fully invested...we always have some cash. The reason I view Buffett's comments with a little more respect than anyone else, including Klarman or ECRI, is because do you know of any investor...be it during the Buffett Partnership days, or the Berkshire days...who has protected on the downside better? What is the worst actual loss in shareholder equity Buffett has ever suffered? Minus 9.6% in 2008! How many down years has he suffered during the Buffett Partnership days? Zero! How many years has Berkshire lost shareholder equity during Buffett's nearly 46 year tenure? Twice! I only swear by the comments of one guy...Buffett! There is no one like him, and there will never be another one as good, with no particular disrespect to ECRI or anyone else. Cheers!

Shalab, it's not real! All spin and a fabrication. There is no recovery whatsoever...we are headed for the abyss! Cheers!

That is net of any debt? Are they burning cash? Usually, the ones I find are quite to totally illiquid. Sometimes I do find high tech or biotech microcaps that are liquid and below net cash, but they are burning it. Net of all debt...and there is very little. Not burning through cash, but running a small profit annually. Dirt cheap! Cheers!

Well, I do respect Seth Klarman a lot. You too -- I've always enjoyed reading your posts, particularly those on the old board. But we disagree on this one. I'm with WEB that US equities were cheap as whole in 2008/2009. I don't know if US equities are cheap as a whole right now, but I do know that certain sectors are ridiculously cheap, and at least 30 pretty well known individual US stocks I follow are also pretty damn cheap. Not only U.S., but there are discounts in Canada too. We own about 4% of a micro-cap company that is completely liquid, is trading at less than plain cash on hand, and at a 35% discount to plain cash and cash receivables! What am I going to wait for when buying this company...prices like the 1970's! If this thing goes to a 50% discount to cash, does that make me silly for buying now and not waiting for that possibility? It's a pure net-net trading less than cash on hand! Cheers!

As Buffett put it back in September: “We have a recovery going,” said Buffett, who has led Berkshire for more than four decades. “I don’t think that fiscal stimulus or monetary policy from this point forth will do a lot, to be perfectly honest. I do think that the natural regenerative juices of capitalism will do, and are doing, plenty.” Cheers!