Parsad

Sharper a train is hurtling down the track at 90 miles an hour and NO ONE is willing to get off the track the only thing I see is gold goes up a little in value a little every day. Is it at all possible that the only thing that will get us a resolution is a crash if the Dow drops 1000 points maybe even some tea partiers will get worried about the debt ceiling. That's what it may take. If they don't come to some sort of agreement tonight and get it into the house tomorrow, I think Wall Street's interpretation of this just being political gamesmenship will quickly dissipate. Can't believe that such pig-headed behavior is being put ahead of the welfare of the country! Cheers!

John Birch Society...err, sorry Tea Partiers...are ready to light the match! This is not going to be good. Probably not quite as bad as some may make it out to be, but it will not be good. Waste of time, waste of money and a distinct possibility...in fact, likelihood of a double-dip. It will change the game completely on what we can expect from other nations. And our frickin' loonie is going to go through the roof, probably pushing us into a recession as well! Cheers!

I said a week ago that a default was about 30% likely. http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=4768.0 I think a default will result in a 5-10% market correction...possibly more, as a default is very likely to exacerbate the possibility of a double-dip recession longer term. The government's interest costs go up...the financial industry's costs go up...thus borrowing rates for every other business goes up, as well as consumer rates also go up. Default would be the dumbest thing to do, as the cost to the U.S. economy would be quite large...I would say north of $200-300B in economic value...as well as any drop in asset values...perhaps over $1T! Not something they should take a chance on like this. Cheers!

They've got less than a week to get this thing done! Hopefully, S&P and Moody's are willing to wait that long. At least China will be happy earning a bit more interest on their massive holdings of U.S. treasuries...as well as the Japanese! Harcore Democrats and Republicans are having fun lighting matches after dousing everyone in gasoline. Cheers! http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/07/22/debt.talks/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

The US Court of Appeals has rejected the SEC's New Exchange Act Rule 14a-11, which would have allowed shareholders with greater than 3% ownership to nominate board members on the company's own proxy documents. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-court-rejects-SEC-rule-on-apf-1094113398.html;_ylt=Av0oNf.Is8zqVcV_ni8nkuS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1N3Bsc2dnBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawN1c2NvdXJ0cmVqZWM-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode= I agree with the courts that it could make fighting proxies expensive for companies...we spent $50K in our group running the proxy against ITEX, while they spent a couple hundred thousand! I think the 3% ownership rule is low. They should probably raise it to 10% or higher. If incumbent management with limited ownership, feel they have an innate right not to listen to their largest shareholders, and feel they want to wage expensive proxy defenses against their own shareholders, then a majority of the remaining shareholders would probably come to their senses and vote against the incumbent management if they were spending excessive amounts on defense, rather than compromise. Hopefully the SEC will be able to move this forward with a higher threshold or something. Cheers!

Commentary on Buffett's stance. Which I happen to agree with. ;D Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Buffetts-Unwavering-Optimism-tsmf-3377317085.html;_ylt=An.BVpSAPPhIWABdIo4gX7W7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2ZGc1MnEwBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDYnVmZmV0dHN1bndh?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

Article on Chandler and his Mandolin Fund. Cheers! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/latest-sino-forest-investor-finds-itself-on-familiar-ground/article2105641/

Article on Paulson. Includes some comments on Sino-Forest. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Exclusive-Paulson-says-bets-rb-2706023513.html;_ylt=Aotd5D1Uz5viPZK6L56fKsO7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1YzhlOHViBHBvcwM3BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNwYXVsc29uc2F5c2I-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Any other company and that would have been a terrific quarter. But because it's Microsoft, and you are competing against Google and Apple, it looks mediocre. They are spending money and playing catch-up in the cloud and search...they still dominate home and business users...X-box and Kinect have hold of a certain segment of the market and look to dominate...Windows 8 with mobile platform should be out next year. Regardless, they are still making money hand over fist, and based on their earnings power, the stock is still very cheap. Should be around $35 plus. They should be buying back all the shares they can under $30! Cheers!

Coincidence? Overstock's office is evacuated after a white powder substance was found and people felt sick...the same day as Minkow gets sentenced. Cheers! http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705387976/Overstock-building-evacuated-in-haz-mat-investigation.html

This quote from the article is pretty damn funny: “His hubris is what caused this problem,” Minkow’s attorney, Alvin Entin, said today. “His narcissism is what caused this problem. He’s not going to make the same mistake a third time.” Minkow didn’t speak at the hearing except to answer the “yes, ma’am” to judge’s questions. Yes, I'm sure five years in jail will make all the difference. Next time he certainly won't do this again. Especially with all the wonderful, less than savory, characters he hangs out with...Antar, Weiss, Conen...etc. If your lawyer is saying all this, you must really be worse than horses**t. Cheers!

Are you referring to Minkow or Byrne? If it is the latter, then I think you're clearly mistaken. Cheers!

SAC, Third Point & Kynikos are claiming that Kasowitz Benson carried out an undercover sting against John Gwynn of Morgan Keegan, and that they should be disqualified from representing Fairfax in the lawsuit. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-21/sac-capital-seeks-to-disqualify-kasowitz-benson-law-firm-in-fairfax-suit.html?cmpid=yhoo

$583M! Maybe they should get Sam Antar and Whitney Tilson to pay, because I doubt if Minkow's got any money left after his defense and the movie he was making about his own life! ;D Tin-foil hat Byrne strikes again. He's crazy, huh? Cheers!

I am sorry to say that I think you are wrong. Everyone in the gov't does not agree that we must spend less. The only reason that we are now having this debate in Congress is because of the outcome of the 2010 elections. If the Democrats still had control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency there would be no debate about spending less. There would have been no extension of the tax cuts in December, taxes would have increased. Unchallenged, the 2011 budget deficits would be between $1.5 to $2 trillion, and taxes would have been raised yet again in an attempt to cover the shortfall. Does anyone out there doubt this??? Nope, you are absolutely correct. But let's not blame the Democrats entirely for spending too much, when it was a Republican-controlled Congress and Senate, along with support from the Democrats, that repealed Glass-Steagell...which eventually cost the planet roughly $8T dollars to date...and the tab is still rising. It was also a Republican-controlled House and Senate, that loosened mortgage rules and monetary policy to the point where every idiot Barney Frank knew could buy a house. Cheers!

Sanjeev, the disclosure, a part of which I quote below, is on the front cover of MW report and featured prominently on its website as well. And pretty much everyone at this point knows that Block's outfit is a pseudo hedge fund rather than just a research provider. You should assume that as of the publication date of any report, Muddy Waters, LLC (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our clients and/or investors has a short position in the stock (and/or options of the stock) covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of stock declines. I'd go so far to say than a great deal of forum posting here (and Yahoo! Finance, SiliconInvestor etc etc) is done by members who have financial interests, one way or another, in the topic matters. I wouldn't personally expect every opinion to be objective or even 100% accurate (in other words, professional investors, Street analysts, Carson Block, investment hacks, fraudster all make mistakes at some point - it's part and parcel to putting one's opinion out in public). S2S, I know he discloses his position, but my point was in general these lines are becoming too blurred. Too many people on CNBC touting stocks long and short...too many analysts/psuedo hedge fund managers...too many journalists/paid lobbyists. Arms-length has become elbow-lengthed, and eventually that distinction will be completely undefinable. Cheers!

It's no different than Buffett/Berkowitz/Tilson/(insert name of your favorite money manager here) publicly disclosing the investment theses of their holdings, be it in short form (media interviews) or in some details (presentations in investing conferences or the oft-leaked letters) either. I don't know. I think it's different when you have the word analyst in your name and you offer to write reports for other people for money. Everyone knows where the money manager stands. An analyst, not entirely unlike a journalist, is regarded as having an objective view on a subject with some sort of arms-length relationship to his/her report and compensation. The line has become too blurred between analyst, journalist, newsletter writer, etc. Cheers!

You're joking right? How long do you think a case like that, involving cross border dealings would take to complete? How much money? He's exposed 5 frauds in the last year, and let the market worry about it. Not at all. This is the way the rest of world works does it not? We have a legal system for a reason, correct? Also, going to law school does not make you an attorney. I didn't say he should run the case himself. Prem's not an attorney is he? How about Patrick Byrne? Block could have filed a class-action suit in the U.S. and Canada, as the company is also sold to shareholders in both countries and listed in Canada. The money he spent on accountants, researchers, travel, administrative costs, etc, would have been more than enough to cover the costs of filing the suit, filing a complaint with the SEC, and then running the case until discovery and trial. He would be paid on contingency and any future settlement. He chose to put out an analyst report and short the company instead. His choice but I think it's unethical...and no different than a long analyst putting out a report and buying stock or call options. Cheers!

PS. Does it not concern anyone that Block serves his own interests by driving down the share price? Do you not think that may effect his credibility and objectivity? I would suggest that the incentive for Block to see the stock go down, was even greater than Gwynn's incentive to see Fairfax's stock go down. People say that Block has to make a living, and he's being honest about his position, but he is an attorney is he not? He could actually pursue fraud in court and represent investors through class-actions, ultimately receiving his compensation through contingencies. Would that not achieve the same end result? Would that not represent a more ethical way to uncover the fraud by going through the legal system and actually possibly returning capital to those same shareholders who have been defrauded? Presently, his behavior strikes me as someone who yells fire in a theatre, and as everyone flees, he goes in and steals the money and credit cards left in jackets and purses on the seats. Whether there is a fire remains to be seen, or was it all just smoke blown up people's asses? Incidentally, Sino-Forest has done little to shed light on the situation either. Somebody should have given them a playbook on how to deal with such a crisis! Cheers!

Yeah it was down $27 on Yahoo Finance after the report, but now it's up $20. Cheers!

And of course, the stock sells off in after hours trading! Cheers!

Just nuts! What a quarter...what a nine months! Cheers!

One more thing: I think analysts, both long and short, should have to disclose the exact position they have in any company they are covering or reporting on, including holdings within their immediate family and any arms-length relationships they should appropriately disclose. I also think investment banks or institutions that take stock, warrants or equity in any company they are financing, should be required to file ALL purchase and sales in those businesses...or they should be vested for 3 years. I think there is a ton of unethical behavior in the financing of junior cap/small cap stocks by small to mid-sized investment banks. Those institutions shuffle off the stock in these companies to their retail clients, whether they are appropriate or not for their portfolio, and then sell off their stakes as the price rises...leaving the retail investor holding the bag in crappy companies. Cheers!

I can see an issue with disclosure on a general basis, but many of those that short are quite clear about their intentions and their positions. So do you have a problem if someone says I am short ABC stock in X amount and I think the company is crap, here are my reasons? Historically we've seen the treatment that people like Einhorn, etc. get when short and it is quite clear what they are doing. No, they should be filing any substantial position on EDGAR, just like longs have to. That way it is legally binding and there is recourse for securities regulators. Just like you can see which longs have a substantial position in any one company, I think shorts should be required to do the same. If this was done, then I have no problem with shorts. Cheers!

John Morgan, CEO of Winmark Corporation (who many of you are familiar with), bought Buffett's childhood home. It's in the hands of a terrific value investor and he plans on putting it to good use! Cheers! http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2011/07/19/mn-ceo-buys-warren-buffetts-house.html?ana=yfcpc