Parsad

Right. This is contrary to a normal investment approach or strategy. Say your investment strategy is not long-term based, or bottom up. Say it is based on a 1 to 2 yr investment time horizon, and no further. Think of this as more of a short term prediction, and not necessarily a real life strategy. For most investors, I would suggest short-term treasuries, or if they are a bit more comfortable, then cheap, solid dividend paying stocks in a portion of the portfolio. Frankly, we don't change our own behavior even if the duration is one or two years. We still invest the same way, be it our corporate or personal portfolios, or our funds. We may keep a modest amount more in cash in the corporate portfolios, since we have operating expenses, but for the most part...they follow the same philosophy...albeit even more concentrated than our funds. Cheers!

Say you couldn't invest in a stock specific, non-diversified portfolio. Say you are forced to choose the best investment category for the right now given all the current market valuations, interest rates, expectations, etc. Assume you could only invest either 100% in a single category, or 50% in one category and 50% in another. I'm curious what the general sentiment is right now on more of a macro level for this board. Which category(ies) would you choose: A)Treasuries (10 yr) B)Cash C)Corporate Bonds (b/t BBB - AAA) D)S&P500 fund E)Diversified Real Estate fund F)Emerging Markets Which would you choose? Remember, you have to invest in a diversified index type fund in either of the above categories (no other choices). What's your call? I understand "WHY" you are asking the question, but I believe the "WHY" would lead to the wrong conclusion. You are not boxed into any one category, nor do you ever have to classify yourself into one category based on economic conditions. If you are 100% cash right now, there is nothing wrong with that, as long as your end goal is to find the most undervalued assets with the largest margin of safety. If you are fully invested in the market, utilizing that same philsophy, then you are also not doing anything wrong. The only time you need to box yourself into a specific classification like that is if your time horizon or economic circumstances dictate it...you need the money in the near future (or at present) and cannot suffer any decrease in your capital base. Otherwise, don't worry...find what is cheap and buy it...or if you don't see anything, feel free to invest in short-term fixed income instruments that won't move significantly with changes in interest rates. Ideas always come and the ensuing returns will preserve your capital. Cheers!

Terrific article! Burry is one of the few people I have seen that have taken Greenspan to task. Bernanke got the brunt of the blame, but this mess was primarily Greenspan's. Cheers!

I've notice alot of bank CEO's commenting on how they regret taking TARP money...that they didn't need it. Today's CEO is Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGCSnkmqtuts&pos=4 Always interesting that now, when the banking system has been stabilized and returns are fruitful, CEO's forget exactly how their counterparty risks would have been guaranteed if the system was allowed to collapse without government intervention. I don't care if you were JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs or Wells Fargo...without government intervention, including providing TARP funds for the industry, they would all be in a very precarious situation. Just because you didn't partake in the industry's excesses to the extent others did, does not mean you aren't at all culpable. It's like those people who were standing on the side watching the Nazi's do what they did...not guilty, but certainly not innocent. Where were these CEO's when the excesses were out of control? Were they lobbying Congress to put in controls, or rein in loan portfolios or derivatives? Nope! So don't complain now when you've used TARP money and have the headaches to go with it. Cheers!

For those that can't get through to Gorat's, you should try Piccolo's - 402-342-9038. They are answering their phones, Buffett will be there during that night, and I hear the food is better than Gorat's...no offense to Steve and Debbie! ;D Cheers!

Anyone else getting the fax line when they call Gorat's number - 402-551-3733? Been trying for a while and I keep getting the fax. Usually they are taking calls from 9am Omaha time. Cheers!

I got the same email and I was thinking the same thing. Although the picture looks pretty good! Cheers!

Article on Mohish's holdings. Also congratulations to any ATSG shareholders today. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Eclectic-Picks-Pay-Off-For-indie-3582651746.html?x=0&.v=2

And as we were discussing the other day on here, fullfilment and affiliate business revenue is going through the roof...pushing revenues up 27% in the 4th Q and net income was almost $13M or 55 cents a share in the quarter alone! Crazy! That line of business is where I always thought Overstock should be pushing, since margins are better there in most economic conditions and it isn't capital-intensive. The direct business should be used only opportunistically when you can find really cheap inventory at ridiculous prices. The lean years look like they are over at Overstock now as well! Cheers!

And not only that, they have $140M in cash in the bank! Yeaaahhhhhhh. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Overstockcom-Reports-FY-and-prnews-394678390.html?x=0

Some comments on the markets by Bill Gross and John Bogle. I think we'll be somewhere in the middle of their assessments from today's prices. But I don't ever buy the market, so it's irrelevant. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock-Bond-Returns-Will-Be-cnbc-869527788.html;_ylt=Ao_hZeM9SAyWOmnuzkV8bt27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1c2RzZDM2BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNncm9zc3N0b2NrYm8-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Hi Marlin, Thanks for the article! Always nice to read something about Andy...one of the greatest guys I know. By the way, to make it easier on yourself when putting in a link instead of typing the whole thing out, all you have to do is go to the address bar on your browser at the article page, copy the address by "right-clicking" your mouse" and then pasting it directly on the message board reply section by "right-clicking" again. Very easy! Cheers!

Bloomberg article on the Berkshire meeting and how airlines are now charging a premium for an airline ticket, not unlike how auto rental rates have also escalated in the last few weeks. Also a funny quote by Mohnish is in the article. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601108&sid=ahRZ0zF6UsGg

After the recapitalization of MEGA Brands, Fairfax ends up with nearly 20% of the company in equity, plus would control 33% of the company if they exercised the warrants they received as well. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fairfax-Announces-Investment-iw-3122240444.html?x=0&.v=1

Steak'n Shake has now completed the WEST merger and will be issuing the debentures to WEST shareholders. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Steak-n-Shake-Company-prnews-623833322.html?x=0&.v=1

In regards to reserves, Japan can sustain their debt to GDP levels for some time through domestic savings, but at some point they will not be able to. Especially in light of their underfunded retirement system, interest payments if rates rise, and a rapidly aging population. Not sustainable. You are correct on the management of a corporation though. If management is astute enough to understand what is happening, and is equally gifted in hedging for it, then you are ok...but that would be a rare gem. Cheers!

James, Japanese corporations have terrific balance sheets, and in and of themselves are very cheap. But in the context of the future likelihood of a devaluing yen, any investment in those companies would be compromised. I cannot see how the yen will not eventually collapse with any significant rise in interest rates. Cheers!

Terrific little interview with Bill Gates discussing Buffett and Berkshire. There is also an extensive article on various Berkshire-related subjects. Cheers! http://www.omaha.com/article/20100328/MONEY/703289979

Here's an article discussing some of the similar holdings between Berkshire and Fairfax. Cheers! http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=88785

According to Elizabeth Warren, Chairperson for the TARP Congressional Oversight Committee, half of commercial mortgages outstanding will be underwater by the end of 2010. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/36085517

I think there were several errors in Overstock's development. Early on, they built the system to handle far more customers than actually appeared. Roughly two and a half years were lost retrenching and resizing infrastructure. The second mistake early on, and not corrected until the downsizing, is that they were trying to do too much direct business and not enough fullfilment/affiliate business. The margins are better on the latter with far less capital involved. You are now seeing cash flows hit the bottom line. They will be profitable in 2010. Is it sustainable long-term? Depends on the moat, management and the quality of people they put in place. Online retail is extremely cut-throat. Tough to maintain moats and Overstock's isn't large enough yet...but there's potential. We have owned Overstock equity three times in the last four years. We've owned Overstock debt as well in the last year. We've made money on every investment in Overstock. It's been a trading stock, because of the number of mistakes, short-selling and co-ordinated campaigns against the company. It's been very volatile for five years now. Cheers!

Always great information in Francis' letters. I encourage everyone to read them, in particular Chou Associates, Asian and Bond fund letters. Cheers!

Over half of the delinquent home owners that received loan modifications defaulted nine months later. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aVYxPZ56vjys

SEC is investigating short sale trading at Appaloosa and Carlson Capital. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SEC-eyes-trading-in-two-hedge-rb-3092428936.html;_ylt=AraexmrGvwLLpW9mciU596i7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1OHY1MDEwBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNzZWNleWVzdHJhZGk-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Hi James, We do single year, and it is cheaper than comparative year. You can always send the investor previous year annual reports and they can do their own comparative. The audit is there to provide the partner with an unbiased view of the year's results and to make sure controls are in place when the accounting is done. Anything else is as Buffett and Munger say...esthetics! By the way, we don't have any pictures in the report, nor will we ever...and it's in black & white. Cheers!