Parsad

+1...fully agree! Cheers!

I can't tell you if I'm long-term bullish, because it will depend on how they execute. What I can say is that I believe it is selling at under conservative liquidation value of the assets, and I'm hoping they execute...tentatively it looks like they are trying to monetize those assets. So, my thesis is that I'm long until it hits or goes above my conservative levels of liquidation value, and then I will reduce to a position which I would be comfortable holding under the presumption they may get this done. You compare buying something to below liquidation value compared to what is available in the markets today, and it is not a bad position to have if you are a student of Ben Graham's. Things are not cheap...fully valued in most cases...stupid in others. There are very tiny pockets of value in out of favor companies or industries, so that is unfortunately what we are left to buy. I would much rather buy the stuff I bought in 2009 at greater than 30% valuations from then, but we probably aren't going to get that anytime soon. Low interest rates have inflated all asset values, and we are stuck buying Ben Graham cigar butts! Cheers!

Thank you for this, Sanjeev. I'm curious if you'd be willing to share your current conservative estimate of SHLD's value per share factoring in real estate, brands, inventory and of course stripping away liabilities? Your comments on this thread are very much appreciated! I'd say conservatively, you are looking at $60-75 per share, but that depends on how quickly they can monetize the assets without burning capital in the retail stores. Anything more than that, and you would really need to see all of the actual leases, property owned, intercompany affiliations, quality of inventory, hidden liabilities and then value them piece by piece. But a broad view of the assets, brands, licenses, inventory, etc, I get $60-75 per share. In the past, they were way too slow monetizing the assets, and I felt they would burn through the cash before realizing the value...they probably did burn through about $4-6B that they could have utilized elsewhere in the last few years, if they started the selling process and redevelopment process much earlier and didn't do all of the buybacks at high prices. Now they are monetizing it much quicker...hopefully fast enough and into other value-generating assets! Cheers!

Sanjeev, I'm curious how many of SHLD's properties you think might have $1B+ potential? Don't know. But I can tell you that the three leased properties they sold (Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary) were Grade A location leases that were at one-third of market rates, so there is a lot of value in many of their older leased properties. Then about four properties now, including the one in Burnaby, are each multi-tens of million dollar developments they are involved with, if not hundreds of millions like this Burnaby store. Assume that their real estate portfolio is worth $10B conservatively if sold as is...but 10% of those properties are worth 5-6 times what they are worth in redevelopment...you are now talking about real estate worth $15B conservatively if developed. You would need to tear apart the leases and wholly-owned properties to get a good idea of fair market value and value based on redevelopment. I'm guessing that's what attracted Lampert to Kmart and Sears in the first place. And I'm pleased he's finally monetizing the assets! Cheers! The downtown Vancouver Sears store was struggling. Nordstrom's has taken up the lease Sears sold back to Cadillac Fairview for about $80M. Nordstroms is a very different retailer than Sears, and something the Vancouver market has been asking for a very long time. They should do perfectly fine in that old Sears location...but a Sears there was not going to work, just like Eaton's failed there as well. Cheers!

Sanjeev, I'm curious how many of SHLD's properties you think might have $1B+ potential? Don't know. But I can tell you that the three leased properties they sold (Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary) were Grade A location leases that were at one-third of market rates, so there is a lot of value in many of their older leased properties. Then about four properties now, including the one in Burnaby, are each multi-tens of million dollar developments they are involved with, if not hundreds of millions like this Burnaby store. Assume that their real estate portfolio is worth $10B conservatively if sold as is...but 10% of those properties are worth 5-6 times what they are worth in redevelopment...you are now talking about real estate worth $15B conservatively if developed. You would need to tear apart the leases and wholly-owned properties to get a good idea of fair market value and value based on redevelopment. I'm guessing that's what attracted Lampert to Kmart and Sears in the first place. And I'm pleased he's finally monetizing the assets! Cheers! So what would you estimate will the cost be for redeveloping each of these $1B valuable properties? Sorry my misread. "The estimated cost to fully develop and build out the project as contemplated is currently in excess of $1 billion dollars in 2013 dollars." It is still unclear to me who is paying for this $1B cost. It seems like Concord will pay this money to build the properties, and then Sears will have 50% interest in these properties? If similar cases can happen to all the US grade A malls that Sears owns, and assume you are correct about the 15B value, then can I assume that Sears will have 7.5B in value in these properties? I have no idea what the properties are worth, since I don't have access to all of the leases and documents. Baker Street Capital gave an opinion on the analysis they did, which wasn't entirely conservative, but then again excluded valuation for redevelopment on the scale they are doing at Metrotown in Burnaby. I don't know how many properties in Sears' portfolio have that ability, but I would suspect it's a heck of a lot more than the market says it is. Cheers!

Sanjeev, I'm curious how many of SHLD's properties you think might have $1B+ potential? Don't know. But I can tell you that the three leased properties they sold (Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary) were Grade A location leases that were at one-third of market rates, so there is a lot of value in many of their older leased properties. Then about four properties now, including the one in Burnaby, are each multi-tens of million dollar developments they are involved with, if not hundreds of millions like this Burnaby store. Assume that their real estate portfolio is worth $10B conservatively if sold as is...but 10% of those properties are worth 5-6 times what they are worth in redevelopment...you are now talking about real estate worth $15B conservatively if developed. You would need to tear apart the leases and wholly-owned properties to get a good idea of fair market value and value based on redevelopment. I'm guessing that's what attracted Lampert to Kmart and Sears in the first place. And I'm pleased he's finally monetizing the assets! Cheers!

Finally Eddie, finally you've woken up! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-canada-names-concord-pacific-223200164.html Let me explain this for those of you not familiar with Concord Pacific. Concord has pretty much transformed Vancouver's downtown from 1986, and is currently responsible for a lot of those glass condos going up all over Toronto. As I mentioned earlier when the announcement of the Metrotown redevelopment project was announced, according to this article, my original guess of a billion dollar development was dead-on! If Sears can do this to one property, think about all of the other core properties they can redevelop and make a killing off of over the next ten years! They are selling 50% of the land for $140M, and will not be responsible for raising the capital for the project. They would be lucky if they made $140M net profit from that store over the next 15-20 years! Cheers!

Should have just put her up in a house in the Hamptons for a week, and not exchanged any cash! ;D Cheers!

Hedge fund Common Sense Investment facing massive redemptions after prostitution bust! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fund-slammed-founders-prostitution-bust-194535306.html But somehow Chanos kept all of his assets after it was revealed that Spitzer's hooker mistress was staying at his place all summer a few years ago and called him "Uncle Jim!" Difference between New York and Portland! ;D Cheers!

Thanks! I actually celebrate both...U.S. & Canadian Thanksgivings. I have a lot to be thankful for! ;D Cheers!

Click on the thread you want to search, and then use the search bar on the top right hand corner. It will only search the board or thread that you are in. If you want to search the entire board, then click on "Home" and then do a search, and it will go through everything. Cheers!

Heres the deal: The companies story is marketing. The target market is young value investors that are looking for the next buffett. Gad's track record in capital allocation is below average look at his returns. Young buffett had an amazing track record. Track record matters and results matter. Also add questionable ethics in stealing money. Learn from buffet be your own version of buffett. Start a business invest the excess cash in whatever you want property/investments. Use buffetts philosophy to build your own mini brk. What did Gandhi say " be the change in the world". I would say " access your own inner buffett don't look for it you already have it in you". Sorry for the rant. My pet pleeve are young investors marketing themselves as the next coming using IV and buffett terminology. +1! It's not that you can't or won't make money from these guys...but it's what you can live with. Part of me is intrigued by their abilities, brashness and ego, but at the same time, do you really want to partner with them? It's a personal decision. I can say without a doubt, that I've made far more money for my partners since selling our stake in Steak'n Shake, then they would have made if we held on to the stock. So, you can still make money without compromises to your ethics! Cheers!

Not only one of the greatest Canadian businessmen in history, but probably one of the best in the world. He built his empire from scratch. Cheers!

I'll tell you what type of person he is. While I had met him before a couple of times, it was in Omaha 2010, when I actually spent a fare bit of time with him. Mohnish, Guy, Alnesh, Dr. Ajay Desai, myself and a couple of friends were having a very late bite to eat, about 1am or so, at the burger restaurant in Harrah's in Council Bluffs. During all of the discussion, Guy is occasionally taking photographs..nothing unusual. A very charming, affable fellow I found him to be! About two-three weeks later, a package arrives at my desk in my office. It's a photograph Guy took of Alnesh and myself. He had it printed, labelled, framed and shipped over to me for no reason...other than that is his nature. It's on my desk to this day! Cheers!

Nice interview with one of the nicest guys in the industry. Cheers! http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/filemgr?&file_id=7314104

I think that was a terrific move. I would try and keep the portfolio out of any sort of all or nothing bet (so no 100% BAC), but that's a terrific rate and I would do the exact same thing. Actually, I did! I have a 2.79% 5-year fixed...you can't get anything longer than 10 years in Canada. I wish we had 15 and 30 year mortgages, because I would have locked into multiple rental properties on 30 year fixed rates back in 2009-2010. You guys are fortunate to have had that opportunity...granted it came on the back end of a catastrophe...to the prepared mind or bankbook go the spoils! ;D Cheers!

I think these threads aren't serving any real purpose. There is an ignore feature now, and you have moderation, as well as the ability to report posts. Without turning this into an old Communist prison, I'm not sure what else board members want. You have no spam, no assholes spurting stock tips, and the only thing existing members have to do (including not paying a dime) is tolerate one another with a civil tone. Really, maybe board members are the ones asking too much at this point and you need a reality check on what you have here at your disposal, compared to the dead boards and crap on the Fool.com and Yahoo, or the elitism of Value Investors Club! Cheers!

Way to go Uccmal! Enjoy your new life. I would get the HELOC limit increased now, as if there ever is a crisis, banks won't want to lend at the most opportune time, or will cut back the limit anyway, as they did in 2008. Cheers!

You are quick! When I saw this news this morning, I thought Luke5:32 must have already posted that here. He is always the quickest in posting SHLD related news. Haha! Actually I've been off the grid for a couple days as my beautiful bride gave birth to our 3rd son! Mommy and baby doing well. Of course, being so bullish on SHLD, we gave him the first name "Eddie" and middle name "Bruce." Just kidding ;D Congratulations to you and your family Luke! Cheers!

I agree. If you guys are in the U.S. and you can get below 4.5% over 30 years, with the deduction, then friggin' do it! As long as you can afford to maintain that house and pay that mortgage from your investments, let alone any other earned income, it's a no-brainer. Cheers!

Ok, I found a plug-in that works with this version. A tiny bit complicated getting it active, but then it works fine thereafter. If some of you are eager to ignore others, then I don't think you'll mind a tiny bit of work. Two bits of information you will need, as I've activated it from my end, but you will need to activate your own end: You need to enable quick moderation. Profile > Look and layout (select checkboxes). Then when your on unread or unreadrepies page. Check the ones you want to ignore down the right hand side, and click Ignore Selected at the bottom. Please read the instructions at SMF for further details: http://custom.simplemachines.org/mods/index.php?mod=1193 Cheers!

Sorry folks! No good "ignore user" plug-in on Simple Machines that works with this version of SMF. Hopefully, something will be updated or added to the next version. In the meantime, learn to respect others and be civil to one another...whether you like it or not! Cheers!

Good for you! What are your thoughts on the rising of the stock, since now we know it is mostly not due to short squeeze? thanks. Can you really say that it wasn't a short squeeze? Just because the short shares remained roughly the same doesn't mean it wasnt a squeeze. You can have a squeeze where shorts are scrambling to buy shares that others are selling short thus simply rolling the short exposure at a higher average strike. Yes, that would be correct. I think the point they were trying to make was that the short interest remains the same even though the stock has risen 40%+. With any good news at all, the squeeze could continue on the guys rolling in after buying the shorts being covered. Cheers!

Even though this my forum, I still haven't figured out if there is an effective "ignore" feature, since I don't think ignoring someone's dialogue helps anyone. But then again, I know that there are certain animosities that flare up in discussions, and for specific users it may be effective. Can someone tell me if they use any sort of "ignore" feature on here right now? If not, Paul and I will see if we can find a plug-in. Cheers!

Yeah, I would totally agree with Eric. TBV may be slightly higher if they do better, but that would have no effect on your "B" warrants. While you should make a decent return on the "A's", it still won't be fantastic if you are buying them for just above $6, exercise is at $13.30 or so, and stock is at $26-$28 in 2018-2019. Cheers! Albeit, we are talking about tangible book, not book. The assumption is that in the worst case scenario, much of the difference is utilized during runoff of legacy issues. If you assume that book will continue to grow, and that legacy issues will diminish without utilizing that difference, then the "A's" could still provide good value. But the huge margin that was available a couple of years ago is no longer there. Cheers!