Parsad

Very cool and accurate, but a few other things that are missing. - A Map - GPS - Calendar - Flashlight - Calculator - Notepad - Address Book - Foreign Language Dictionary - Video Game Console To name a few. Cheers!

Article on longevity...I thought I would post it, as Irving Kahn is on the list. Also, read the comments section, as there are a couple of very funny jokes! Cheers! http://shine.yahoo.com/healthy-living/odd-tricks-people-who-lived-past-100-swear-by-184109562.html

Sorry, but I don't see much consistency in your arguments so not clear how to reply to that. You have started this thread due to worrying and concern about a general market/economic situation. Not sure what I've been inconsistent about...I was pointing out the fact that markets have risen dramatically and the risk premium that investors are paying aren't adequate for most stocks and definitely the broad market...that I'm concerned about this. You do agree that timing the market in the long run is impossible, so why worry about it. Just don't time. And if it drops again 25% as you say, you can rinse and repeat again. Even the dip last year was used for that. Timing the market "perfectly" is impossible. But when broad market valuations increase to the point where risk premiums are lower and lower, you are indirectly timing the market when your investments have reached intrinsic value, and you do not have replacement ideas so you have more and more cash...it's just prudent behavior. Cheers!

The 80% figure was written before I found that site...taken from the Ned Davis slide presented in Fairfax's 2009 AGM. Outside of the tech bubble and related years (1996 to 2010), markets had stayed below 80% and the median was 60.6% in the previous 70 years. I posted the link to the site, because it was one of the sites that showed up when you asked me a question and I did a search, and had a pretty decent explanation that I thought you could understand. I cannot tell you for certain what the rate of return will be over the next few years...except to say I cannot see it being anywhere near what we have enjoyed for the last four and a half years. Cheers!

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers! I hope this doesn't sound pedantic, but why 80%? I would love as many details as possible. http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php Cheers!

Sorry, I believe I paraphrased what he was saying. ;D Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/einhorns-advice-investors-dont-advice-021913019.html;_ylt=AlQLT0NfMOlewi0XY_nOf_2iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNyNGlobHU3BG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgTGVmdARwa2cDNTQ4NmZmZmEtMTVlOC0zMDBiLTljZWMtNWY2ODg3NGE2ZDlhBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzM2NzRhZjAwLWI4NGYtMTFlMi1iYTRlLTYxYmU4ZmViMDZiNw--;_ylg=X3oDMTFkcW51ZGliBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3BtaA--;_ylv=3

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers! Why? Listed stocks on NYSE only have revenue from the US? You are saying that Apple's marketcap or Goldman Sachs' or what have you should only be connected to a local GDP even though a part of their revenue is related to other markets' GDP? Should we also ignore those trillions in investments coming in from non US countries? There is only ONE market and it is the global market with lots of small markets inside. This is why messing with big macro economic calls is so hard, there are always much more variables in the equation than it seems. Even if you are right timing can kill. That's why Value Investing works. If the market really crashes, sell at a tax loss and buy those 5 cents on the dollar. Rinse and repeat. This is the same argument we heard in 1999 and 2007. What we all found out is that doing the above provides far less return on investment than simply being patient and waiting for a fat pitch. Incidentally, if you are including the global market, you should be even more concerned, as I feel that the U.S. economy is actually in far better shape than the global economy...I've said that for the last two years. Every time investors have bought assets with a low risk premium, based on the low interest rate environment, they've been burned considerably. Just because Buffett is buying stocks, doesn't mean that a significant correction isn't around the corner. Remember, he was bullish on stocks back in October 2008, yet the bottom did not hit until early 2009 after a 25%+ drop. Just like Prem being bearish since early 2010 hasn't been right either. No one ever gets the timing right...but the risk premium should always be adequate...otherwise you could end up breaking "Rule #1"! Cheers!

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers!

But that was an extremely overvalued high to begin with. Cheers!

This is what worries me. You had a ton of cash in Q1 and then you changed your mind and invested...not based on fundamentals, but market psychology. While some of our investments remain undervalued, there are several we have sold and are getting out of. I'm looking at the companies on my watch list, and virtually all that I watch are far above prices I would pay...that's about 200 stocks. I don't expect 2008/2009, but the faster capital flows into stocks, and the faster that risk premium shrinks, the larger the eventual correction will be...and it will be quick with all of these HFT's kicking in. I'm happy to wait for a fat pitch with alot of cash on the side. Cheers!

I'm getting more and more freaked out about what I see in the markets. Cash is flooding in...great, because the funds are up big...but very, very disconcerting as investors continue to accept very low risk premiums. The cash continues to build! Anyone else getting worried? Cheers!

Here's the file, if you don't like having to sign up for Dropbox like myself. Cheers! Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting_2013_public.pdf

We won't let them in. They can lurk! ;D Cheers!

They also reduced 2013 Capex to pretty much where I said they would...about $1.45B. Excluding the $398M one-time loss on sale of assets, they cut their 1st Q loss by 60% year over year. You have a stronger balance sheet and more prudent capital management. I suspect more asset sale or asset monetization...if not an outright sale at some point. Cheers! I don't get it... If the return is 40% a year and they can borrow at 7%, why is it bad to have more capex for now? They can borrow and drill for the next two years, and when they can't borrow anymore, cut the capex by then. Wouldn't they get more money in that way? I'm not a fan of the "grow it any way you can, and profits will come" business plan. I like businesses to grow their operations with the profits they generate...think See's Candies or Google. Because often CEO's get taken in by their own abilities and analysis, that by the time they realize they are too leveraged, it's too late. Look how leveraged Sandridge became before the Permian asset sale. If the average person should live within their own means, I don't see why corporate America can't do the same. Cheers!

They also reduced 2013 Capex to pretty much where I said they would...about $1.45B. Excluding the $398M one-time loss on sale of assets, they cut their 1st Q loss by 60% year over year. You have a stronger balance sheet and more prudent capital management. I suspect more asset sale or asset monetization...if not an outright sale at some point. Cheers!

What is it lately with the boardmembers on here? Now Buffett_Groupie has a picture shaking Buffett's hand in his office. My favorite is the one with Poppy Harlow...damn she's a looker! Cheers!

Thanks Alex! You know, it was at a Yellow BRK'ers Party where I first met Buffett, and that meeting changed my life...eventually leading to this board and the funds. Hope to see you in Toronto next year! All the best, Sanjeev

Somebody's going to get lucky tonight! And you didn't even have to take out the garbage or do anything around the house. ;D. Cheers!

Oh, you are a friend of Mohnish?! Yes...he's one of the greatest guys I know. Cheers!

I agree. Looks like a Hyundai Veloster! Cheers!

Who is the guy on the left? For a second there, I thought he was Michael Burry... Nope, that's the lovely Mr. Spiers...the Edge to Mohnish's Bono! ;D Cheers!

Parsad, Don´t mean to pry (read: I actually do mean to pry), but mind elaborating on why Mohnish found the urge to share him meeting Elkann. I´m guessing he met lots of interesting people last weekend (read: have you guys been discussing Fiat perchance?). Man, would I have wanted to observe those two talking... Because we have fun screwing around with you guys! ;D I don't know why he sent it to me...you guys are going to have to ask him if it is of any significance or coincidence. His AGM is coming up in a few months, so I'm sure the question will be broached by someone from here. Cheers!

I'm thinking of putting a book together...have to talk to both Twafcowa and Paul Clerc, as I plan on updating the homepage and some other features, and the book would be published through Twafcowa's company and we would have an electronic version as well. Alot of work, but I was hoping to put it out some time in 2015...ten years after I had lunch with Prem! It wil give me enough time to also interview some of the board members on here, as well as some my manager friends. Cheers!

LOL! I spent hours with Allan and Ben on Friday night in Omaha...we were watching hockey! I don't think he wants more stuff about him. He is honestly a very low profile person. And he's the real deal...head down, do the work, and never betray the fiduciary responsibility he was given or take advantage of his partners. Cheers!

Some of you may like this: Hi Sanjeev, ...Taken on Sunday morning in Omaha. With John Elkann (Chairman of Fiat). Fiat owns Ferrari and John came to the Berkshire Managers’ Brunch in the Ferrari behind us. I left a gap between John and me so we didn’t cover the logo! Warmly, Mohnish Pabrai Cheers!