Jurgis

OT? I prefer GLOW ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5770786/ ). 8) Can't invest in it though...

Heir today, gone slam tomorrow... ;D

This was a suburban location and opened not that long ago (5 years? I'd have to check). I was just surprised how rundown the tables looked. Anyway, since it's suburban and there are no other coffee places nearby, I doubt they lose much business because of that. Ice teas were pretty good although I prefer the whatever ice tea they do at Panera haha. 8) I kinda see now why Panera was bought out at pretty high valuation... if I had to choose between Panera and Starbucks, I'd go Panera. 8) But then I'm not really Starbucks customer so ;D

Preliminary results out: http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/goodwin_plc/rns_teaser/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1427&newsid=910754 Sales up, income down, no FCF as usual. This might be the time to buy for next upturn, but I'm more likely to sell... just take my shares for (almost) free!!! ::) 8)

I don't usually go to Starbucks. Recently we went to one and it seemed quite run down: tables looked old and neglected. Is this common, uncommon, rare? Most tables also were occupied by people who "live" there, but I think this issue has been known and around for ages.

Thanks. 8)

Interesting talk. The risk of trying to make person both number cruncher and storyteller is that instead of intended checks-and-balances you might get a reinforcement. I.e. instead of story checking the numbers or numbers checking the story, you get double confirmation bias: "not only numbers(story) but also story(numbers) support my investment thesis!!!" Damodaran makes both sides look easy. Neither side seems easy to me. Yeah, sure, it's easy to create fantasy stories. But it's not so easy to create what he calls "probable" stories and distinguish them from "(im)possible". Yeah, sure, it's easy to write up a bunch of (ir)relevant numbers. But it's harder to create a numerical model that is indepth, both conservative and realistic, and made from numbers that matter. And then you also have to connect the two. I see only few people who do what Damodaran suggested in his talk. And I don't think this is because people think his approach is bad. I think it's because it's not that easy. Another issue is that ultimately he does (his own version of a bit more complicated) DCF. And DCF has its own set of issues that may not be connected with business and story (large part of value ends up being terminal value, which is difficult to predict; discount rate affects DCF a lot and what Damodaran uses - weighted cost of capital - is IMO controversial; etc.). Anyway, Damodaran's approach is pretty interesting and might be a good set of tools for some investors.

Will there be another article by shorts after divvie is paid? Get the popcorn! 8)

Anecdote fitting the Oncor acquisition situation: from this week's Barron's article "Warren Buffett's Best Advice" http://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-best-advice-and-why-he-doesnt-own-gold-1503115174

Fidelity charges additional $50 for a number of five-letter-F stocks.

Or unless you're an alien... but then I repeat myself... 8) ("This explains a lot of things" - Men in Black)

I hope you got to see some of it, what did you end up doing? I took my wife and kids up to Menan, Idaho along with a big group of neighbor friends (we drove around 4 hours to get there) Camped out Sunday night, then played sun / moon / eclipse songs all morning while we waited. I took a few videos: one with a DJI drone to see the 360 degree sunset, and one from a small camcorder on a tripod. When C2 hit and there was a big black disc where the sun had been... my brain blew a fuse, and all I could do was scream like I was at a cosmic rock concert. I saw the 2012 annular eclipse in Saint George, Utah, but it was nothing compared to a total. We didn't go. :( The weather prediction was pretty bad (although ultimately it seems there were some openings in the clouds). We saw the partial (63%), which is of course not comparable to total. Well, another time... 8) Glad that you guys had a great time. 8)

Could I not buy something and get 270M for it? 8)

Thanks Sanjeev! I'll try not to read Politics Board. If someone needs my thoughts or support there, send PM anytime. Peace! 8)

If it was a Lear Jet, I'd redirect it to Nashville pronto. :-\ 8) Too cheap to dump $2K to change tickets to Nashville... Oh well, I won't tell anyone I'm cheap. Just gonna say it's all for adventure! 8)

I don't. I'm not standard. Very anecdotal. ::) Also influenced by Soviet upbringing which totally plays into the retailers' hands. Buy today, FINAL SALE! it won't be available tomorrow... ::) (BTW, this is mostly not a lie at TJMaxx, Marshalls: stuff is single units and won't be available tomorrow.) OTOH, I don't throw away the shirts and shoes that I bought ten years ago (on that FINAL SALE!!!!). I still wear them until worn out... ::) But, yeah, in general I totally agree with you: if you invest in retail, it's good to know some people who dig retail deeply. Especially if your investment concept is more than just "low cost wins" (e.g. buying WMT in the past). I knew a person like that once... too bad I was not investing then and I did not know what a treasure it was to know someone like that...

Yeah, I have a car... but also have a flight back that constraints how far I can drive... and it's not clear how bad the roads gonna be. There's a map that shows "closest totality point by car" using road network. Kansas City is closest for all of Texas... If they decide to come, it's gonna be gridlock for hundreds of miles. It's gonna be an adventure... 8)

Maybe this is gonna be a more fun thread for General. 8) <--- oh, look these are my eclipse glasses. 8) Anyone's going to watch? Going to path of totality? I have tickets to Kansas City and clouds are predicted. :'( :'( :'( What to do, what to do? Try to change to Nashville, not to go at all... :'( Ah those investment decisions about the future. :'(

Suppose that he bought WFC in his personal account rather than JPM. And then, suppose after a couple of years, he decided that, amid WFC's recent scandals, the bank had lost a significant part of its competitive advantage and it was time to sell. He knows that Berkshire selling would likely have a negative effect on price, which would hurt the position in his personal account. So, what does he sell first, Berkshire's stake in WFC or his own? Since his personal account potentially benefits from front-running Berkshire, that's a conflict of interest. By ensuring his personal stockholdings don't intersect with Berkshire's he can avoid this issue. I know what you're saying, but it's not that simple. If he buys WFC for BRK and JPM for himself, people can accuse him of conflict of interest because why he bought JPM for himself, is it better than WFC? Why did he not buy WFC for himself, does he not believe it's a good buy? Why did he buy it for BRK then? I think that's why he said he bought Seritage in personal account, since it would not move needle for BRK, so presumably there's no conflict of interest then. Although you could argue that there is even in that case... To be clear: I don't care what he bought where much. Just showing that it's not simple to be completely impartial or whatever the word should be.

The no-impulse-buying Force is strong with you. 8)

Sorry, man, you're totally wrong. 8) We go to TJMaxx or Marshalls and pretty always buy tons of impulse crap. The stores are like a fricking treasure hunt for a reason. 8) But that's also probably a reason they don't feel Amazonification much. You can't go to Marshalls and be sure that you gonna get a particular shirt. But you'll likely go there and get 5 shirts on the cheap and pretty good ones too... but not the ones you wanted to get... ::) and also a pet sofa ... bunch of chocolate ... soap holder ... frog statue ... and iPhone case...

I finally read through these and I am pretty impressed. If I was not picking stocks myself, I might just buy SEQUX. 1% fee is a bit high.

Feel free to start a discussion and maybe people would be interested and will get involved. :) For example, apart from the ones you mentioned, what are in the 1% of funds that you don't think are pointless? Maybe by different areas? We could start a mutual fund thread or resurrect one so we don't OT Sequoia thread too much.

Good article. I liked that his answers were more nuanced than index-and-FANG-bashing common by some. He gave a non answer about his selling discipline though (or perhaps there were pieces cut out). Some of his ideas might be attractive for people with access to the markets he mentioned and willing to do DD there. I'll put his book into my Amazon list and might buy it at some point.

I'm gonna stop answering CoBF sexist clowns soon. Just FYI picking 4 scientists who came out in support of Damore's manifesto does not mean that the manifesto is scientifically sound. Perhaps you should leave it to experts or at least also look at studies that do not support his claims: https://www.sciencealert.com/a-google-employee-was-fired-after-blaming-biology-for-tech-s-gender-gap-but-the-science-shows-he-s-wrong?perpetual=yes&limitstart=1