Jurgis

IMO if you guys want to get some serious value from this, you should think about the following questions (some of which KCLarkin asked or maybe had in mind): 1. What made Best Buy successful while others weren't? Was this predictable when everyone was crying Best Buy BK? 1 a. What made the companies that went BK go BK? Circuit City, Radio Shack, Borders, maybe other recent retail BKs (Sports Authority? Not sure if it's Amazon related). 2. Are lessons from 1. applicable to other areas? How/when or why not? 3. Are any other areas as Amazonable as electronics? (This is where a lot of opinions and rehash go... but that's only one question out of 6. ;) ) 4. Are any of the companies / stocks in Amazonable (or non-Amazonable) areas cheap enough based on Amazon panic? 5. Maybe even if they are not cheap (as KCLarkin implies with BBY example), they could be still great investments? 6. Can you predict their business trajectory to answer questions 4. and 5. and avoid 1.a.? Have fun

Yet another thread on Amazon that will rehash previous threads and won't provide any new insights. ::) I think KCLarkin asked interesting question about Best Buy but then muddied the waters by attaching the second wider question. Best Buy question is possibly a good case study. Perhaps the short explanation is "last man standing" in bricks and mortar category that was Amazon'ized. Like Barnes & Noble although more successful. Likely because some products are more tangible and customers require more support/help in choosing/buying. Note that this did not save Circuit City or Radio Shack.

Of course he doesn't give a crap about posters on the internet. This thread is productive probably only in two aspects: 1. Don't clone Pabrai. 2. Don't expect to make 26% a year by cloning (Pabrai or not Pabrai). and maybe: 3. Don't invest like Pabrai: questionable since some of his investments are very good. 4. Don't invest into Pabrai funds: questionable since most of them are closed and his returns might be OK/good. The rest is Internetz banter. Peace. 8)

I hold ISTB. There are pros and cons.

But they can "Shop Your Way" on Amazon! 8)

Thanks a lot John! 8)

I'm gonna wait what John digs up from Danish side. But assuming 340M is tax free, 577M taxable and something like 30% withholding on taxable part, you get ~Euro3.67 = ~$4.23 withholding. So then the question is really: what's the residual worth and is it more than $3 or so? I'd guess it depends on the value of remaining litigation and whatever rights they have, but this is quite murky for me.

To be a devil's advocate in this BRK love fest, I'll just note that Buffett has been buying AAPL, BK and LUV instead of buying BRK: http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=brk Maybe he knows better? 8) Personally for me it's very hard to do relative valuations. If I was faced with firing squad and had to choose between AAPL, JPM, BRK and GOOGL (screw LUV), I'd probably choose... no wait... don't shoot me yet... let me think... wait... ::)

Couple anecdotal observations and thoughts: - IMO, the world is awash in too much content. BTW, this is not just about DISCA. I have the same opinion about Netflix/Amazon/Disney/etc. Does not mean that content companies can't make gigabucks. Might mean that competition is bigger than people expect. DIS is making nature movies now too: DisneyNature Born in China. - Non-fiction library value is less than fiction library value. DISCA might have brand, but while people rent and watch 10 year old movies, they don't much rent and watch 10 year old nature documentaries. - I think DISCA is pushing a lot into international markets. This might still be somewhat of tailwind, but I can't quantify how much. I still hold my shares. I also hold some LGFB. Liberty pieces that haven't gone up recently and might be somewhat cheap (for a reason).

Where is John Hjorth when you need him. 8) Edit to clarify: so at least for US tax-deferred account holders the question is whether Danes will withhold taxes from the EUR19.45 per share "capital reduction" payment. Scenarios where US tax-deferred holders win: whole amount returned non taxable, whole amount returned taxable but no withholding. Scenario where US tax-deferred holders lose: there is withholding and it's more than 5% (depends price paid - I assumed in $21.XX area - and on residual value though!). So we need Danish expertise on what tax implications will be and how they will be handled: withholding or not?

Great post, rb.

I went to Peru in June. Peru is one of the most-cash countries in the world. Interestingly, some shops may not take Visa. Some may not take MC. I never asked about Amex. I saw a lot of UnionPay ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_UnionPay ) signs though. So V/MA may have won developed countries ex-China. But developing countries - especially touristy ones - are quite open to UnionPay and may end up being a battleground. Aside: before reading UnionPay wiki article I did not know about DFS-UnionPay partnership. I wonder how much Discover benefits from it and whether this makes Discover from also-ran into a valuable acquisition target.

I guess it indicates how tough it is for early adopters to evaluate company in Main Street (or even international Tornado?) 8) (for non GGs, ref: http://boards.fool.com/the-technology-adoption-cycle-talc-14336664.aspx?sort=threaded )

I also time-travelled back to the 1800s and tried to buy bitcoin, but the Amsterdam folks were all talking tulips to me... Oh wait... NVM. 8)

To be fair, people may have been buying BRK at $70 whenever that was. And people are looking for investments now when BRK is at $16X and may still be relatively attractive compared to other opportunities in the market. Sure it's not gonna return 20% or probably even 15% a year. But it could return annual 10% and outperform the market (and a lot of other ideas). Yes, of course. I just meant that people didn't even discuss the much bigger margin of safety back then except for a few members. Now they are starting to compare it versus BV of tech companies and making silly assumptions concerning what Buffett thinks BRK is worth. I see. Yeah, comparing BV to tech companies is not very productive.

To be fair, people may have been buying BRK at $70 whenever that was. And people are looking for investments now when BRK is at $16X and may still be relatively attractive compared to other opportunities in the market. Sure it's not gonna return 20% or probably even 15% a year. But it could return annual 10% and outperform the market (and a lot of other ideas).

Damodaran does something very similar to what Lehrskov described: varied growth periods, varied reinvestment percentage periods, etc., then discounted back. One issue with this approach - and almost any DCF actually - is that usually terminal value dominates the overall value or is a large chunk of the overall value. And if your terminal value comes from 10+ years in the future I would say that it is likely to be a wild ass guess.

I'll +1 this. However, OP should be asking two different questions: what it will take the market cap of XXX be higher 50% and what it will take the stock price of XXX to be higher 50%. The answers to these are not the same (hint: think stock buybacks for example).

Or Sanjeev can move this thread to "Investment Ideas" and rename using ticker/name.

Two of my fave recent shows have actually been Amazon originals: 'Sneaky Pete' and 'Patriot'. Have you seen those? Thanks for suggestions, but not my cup of tea. OT. We are currently on "Inspector Lewis" 8th season on Amazon (but not Amazon original). And on 18th season of "Midsommer Murders" (I believe on Netflix). We enjoy watching British depopulate their islands. This is the true meaning of "Brexit". 8) Edit on topic: We still subscribe to Netflix DVD service. In fact, although clearly neglected by Netflix - the number of old DVDs "not available" continues to balloon - this is clearly a very sticky cash cow (oh no, another OUTR! ;D ). Just watched "Hidden Figures" on Blu Ray. Great movie.

We currently watch both Amazon and Netflix. I'd cancel Netflix, but wife is against it. I don't think I've seen any Netflix original that was worth it. But I think that's the same with Amazon originals too. I might be forgetting something that was good though. And my taste is definitely not mainstream. My biggest concern with Netflix is that they gonna spend themselves into financial trouble. However, I don't really know what residuals they keep and what the residual library is worth. So I don't think I have deep insight into how this gonna work out. IMO Netflix is much more sticky internationally than US-side at this point.

I see what you mean. I don't know if I agree, but I think that this is something that you don't need agreement from others. Like you say, this will make people uncomfortable. So you can't expect them to easily agree. And that's possibly a great opportunity for you. :) From my side, I can't say I have a deep insight to offer to you. :-\ I'd prefer to buy great businesses with great management at OK prices. But doesn't everyone? I currently mostly avoid areas with tough economics even if they have great management. I.e. retail, commodities. Which means I won't get 20%+ or 50%+ returns that someone might get if they pick the right company there. I might be overpaying for good businesses... which may yield subpar returns. I still have some investments where I bought soso businesses because of great (?) management. Exor - great return so far. Goodwin - ~50% loss so far. Tessenderlo - OKish return so far. ODET.FR - good return so far. PDER - mostly wash. Teeny tiny bit of IDT. Not adding to any of these. Maybe should put QVCA and LGF.B in this basket too. Might be forgetting some others. So, I'm just thinking on how to look at these and if to buy these and similar in the future or not. Or just buy GOOGL and MCO and BRKB. 8) Thanks for discussion.

Publisher gives you much less, but then you don't pay for editing, marketing, etc. And possibly reach/sales are much higher. Possibly. All depends.

I think it's harder than you suggest Peregrino. Take Tesco, for example. It was maybe similar to Couche-Tard. And then finally crappy business got to it. I wonder if this will finally happen to WMT (Buffett sold) and Costco (maybe not?). Clayton is a bit different story. I think it's like railways and airlines: Buffett waits until all competition in crappy business self-destructs or consolidates into oligopoly. Then he buys. But then, of course, Clayton is different from railways, different from airlines. And airlines Buffett buy is still work in progress. Anyway, I think I'll still skip investing in situations "when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles an industry with a reputation for bad economics". (E.g. MTY.TO too). But I am aware that I may miss huge outperformance by doing so.

I built my own tools with MS Excel/Access and macro. As much as I hate Quicken imo for anyone who has Excel/Access self-solutions are way worse. It's gonna be painful to import, painful to maintain, painful to get reports/graphs, etc. At least with Quicken you can theoretically slurp in transactions automagically (not really, but you can't do this at all with Excel/Access). And you have theoretically correct IRRs, accounting for commissions, inter account transactions, etc. etc. But sure, if you have just few accounts and few stocks and make only few purchases/sales, roll your own with Excel/Access. And have fun. The things you learn will be valuable. The time spent and quality of results will make you appreciate commercial ransomware. 8) Peace and no Quicken Just to be on the same wavelength: My Quicken file goes back to ~1995. It has about ~10 or so brokerage accounts, couple bank accounts, >50 CCs over years, mortgage, etc. Around 200-500 transactions in brokerages per year not even counting the >1000 transactions in 401(k)s and such. ESPP accounting that mostly works. 100+ stock positions probably. Definitely not Excel/Access weekend project. ;)