Jurgis

I probably agree with rb. I raised cash after election. IMO the euphoria is overdone. The market overall is still at high level. And we are still at 7th year of expansion (BTW, I don't believe in cycles per se, but there's some risk the longer expansion goes). What actual changes will be done is not so clear. Some changes might be recessionary. So I went to something above 20% cash from ~17% cash. I think that's where I want to be in current situation. I also cleaned up portfolio a bit. I think it was a good time to do this (rather than doing it during a crash/downturn). Sanjeev, please move this thread to general! :)

Perhaps. But is this really gonna be the outcome of "repeal DF"? We'll see.

Ah yes, 10 years haven't passed from Great Recession, European banks are still on the brink of collapse, US banks are fortresses due to Dodd-Frank, so let's repeal it and see if we can get another speculative bubble and burst. Great idea.

BRK may be broken up some time after Buffett and Munger die. Not before.

What is interesting is the numbers in Texas. There's non zero chance that Reps will lose Texas within next couple elections. (I wonder if they could have lost it this time if oil was still in $100 range... of course this also applies to other oil/shale states ... who knows) Oh wait, that's why they plan to build the wall. Maybe they should just build the wall at the northern border of Texas... 8)

Edit: I'm double posting this here for BRK/Buffett info completeness: http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/11/investing/warren-buffett-donald-trump-stock/ However, most of the interview is on politics, so I also posted it on General and IMO any further discussion probably should go there. ;)

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/11/investing/warren-buffett-donald-trump-stock/

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/american-express-to-become-bank-holding-company/comment-page-9/?_r=0

Datorama's data on Munger buys are wrong. I was misled by this too. He bought BAC @ around $5 not $15 as Datorama writes.

I wonder if Buffett would buy AXP if he could.

I'm not very familiar with DC names, but this http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/donald-trump-transition-drain-the-swamp/ seems to indicate he's more likely gonna be coopted by conservative GOP "advisors". So far things seem to be pointing to GOP congress/senate driving the agenda or at least picking the bits they like from Trump's soundbytes. OTOH, the only thing I learned from hanging out at another forum with someone who was DC insider is that outsiders (and especially Internetz commentators) mostly have no clue about the process and influences there. So I'll try to shut up since I definitely don't. 8) Peace.

You would have thought people learned that lesson after Brexit...

In the past I've been for equal-weighted indexes. Nowadays, I'm pretty much in the market-cap-weighted camp. IMO the assertion that equal-weighted indexes have better valuation curve than market-cap-weighted indexes is not necessarily true. Tough to prove one way or the other I guess. In the new winner-takes-all world within many (tech) industries, it's possibly a mistake to equal-weight allocate to smaller losing companies. Equal-weighted indexes need constant rebalancing which may not be tax efficient if you care about taxes. Equal-weighted indexes have a problem as soon as they cross the size that requires them to hold more than ~10% of the smallest component. This might not happen, but if it does, they usually can't equal-weight anymore. There also might be issues with liquidity during rebalancing for smaller components. However, in general you might not lose (or gain) much by going equal weighted.

Let's see if they gonna post recording like they did last year (I believe).

Did anyone go to this? Do they allow individual shareholders? I probably should try to go next year... Had it in mind, but too late for this year's.

See also http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/books/max-gunther-'how-to-get-lucky'/

"13 techniques for discovering and taking advantage of life's good breaks" https://smile.amazon.com/dp/1906659982 OK, I was sure that this book was mentioned here on CoBF, but I can't find the thread. Maybe it was mentioned on Farnham Street blog or somewhere else. Anyway, IMO this is a great book. Ignore the title. Ignore most of intro. Ignore some of the stock market examples. But the gist of the book is pure gold. It's not metaphysics. It's not hokey new age stuff. It's pretty much heuristics on how to make the chances that occur in the universe work more in your favor than against. Definitely applicable to your life. Might be applicable to current political situation. Some of the book's suggestions have been mentioned on this board in other threads, e.g. on how to get your (hedge fund/investment) business going. You might be already using some techniques like "Worst Case Analysis". Others you might not like or object to. For example, his stock market suggestions are mostly based on random walk and regression to mean, so the concentrated moat investors will ignore most of what he says there. But there might be some techniques that will give additional punch for your life and/or career. "Recognizing a Nonlesson" and "Accepting an Unfair Universe" might be good ones to reread now. ;) I should learn to adopt "The Closed Mouth" more. At least I'm definitely on the road of adopting it for investment ideas. 8) Anyway, the 14th lesson would be: know how to balance 13 techniques, when to use which one and when to not. ;)

+3% in two days ain't life hitting you. Oh, you guys might not be talking about the newfound prosperity under the president elect. ::)

I'm so happy there's ignore feature on this forum. ;D I'd say "don't feed the trolls", but it's really your choice guys. Peace.

That's my concern with international index compositions too. There might be better international indexes if you look around though.

Fidelity has email/phone app alerts based on absolute size or percentage moves I believe. You should look around what your broker provides.

I'll take this as standing invitation, thanks. Still have friends/family in CA, so I might make it there eventually.

Yeah, unfortunately Paris climate agreement promises are likely dead.

Good article. Unlike others that I've criticized for Monday morning quarterbacking the narrative to fit the results, Silver makes valid points on existing data as well as showing how small margin is there from another narrative. A++.