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Everything posted by Jurgis
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Berkshire Hathaway 2016 Meeting - Live Stream / Saturday
Jurgis replied to tooskinneejs's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Sorry but Coke answers from Warren and Charlie are again totally biased. You'd think they'd be rational. Warren is skirting the issue again by going anecdotal and joking. And Charlie... come on "benefit"? Loading fizzy water with tons of carbs is not benefit. Comparing that to deaths in air travel is stupid (sic. I'm free to use the word he used). -
Berkshire Hathaway 2016 Meeting - Live Stream / Saturday
Jurgis replied to tooskinneejs's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Me. Let's have a powwow. We can stay up late, swapping manly stories, and in the morning, I'm making waffles! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0126029/quotes -
Prem's explanation of "100% hedging of equities" is that he doesn't want to wake up to 40%+ drop in the markets, very little to invest and need to get additional cushion for insurance businesses in the worst possible time. Of course, I'd say he probably should just hold cash then. He has not shown himself to be a great market-neutral investor. There might be people who can show positive results with 100% hedges, but he doesn't seem to be one of them. Disclosure: I hold a large position in FFH. I don't subscribe to a lot of Prem's theories, but at current market valuation, FFH may be pretty good investment for majority of scenarios. Rabid bull market - which is one risk for FFH - is quite unlikely at current valuations (at least in US).
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Icahn might be dramatic, but there's some risk that Chinese government could restrict things enough so that Apple phones are no longer attractive to own. That would be a large loss of sales. Not sure how to quantify this risk.
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Partially OT. I actually managed to get whipsawed out of some oil positions during the plunge to $20s. Did not sell Gear, but sold BNKJF low, switched DNR common to bonds (common up 4x, bond maybe 1.5x), almost sold CHK bond at $.12 luckily no takers at the time (haha, efficient market), sold most of PWE, sold CFX. Luckily bought BRS bond. And maybe NOV + CLKFF will get up more than the almost-BK-option-like-EPs...
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Yeah. Might be. Illiquid markets with unsophisticated or forced sellers could do that. I also thought that perhaps TJX gives/gave these cards as bonus for their employees. Not sure if that happens and if it's legal. These would be forced sellers, since they probably already have more TJX merchandise than they want. :)
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Oddball, TJX has been a great business and a great investment in the past and I believe they are doing great still. I doubt that 19% discount on their cards indicates some kind of business issue or loss of traffic/business in stores. That's why I was wondering if there were other reasons like some kind of bulk buyer dumping.
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If this is legit, it's a great find for the cheapo bastards like me. I might buy some of these discounted puppies. Anyone used this? What's your experience? Edit: a lot of discounts are pretty narrow. And then you see something like TJ Maxx at 19% discount - wow... for cards that are at $280-300 face value. I wonder what's the reason. Some kind of wholesale dumping? I don't think tons of people buy $300 TJ Maxx gift cards... so seems either fake or some kind of non-retail dumping.
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If it dropped 50% from here, it would be cheap on P/TB and P/FCF basis. So probably it won't. Prices between here and 50% drop may be attractive depending on the degree of optimism regarding their future. To buy them out, someone would have to pay 2x probably. So probably won't happen. If Balmer still ran MSFT, he'd possibly buy them.
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Bought the book for Kindle for $0.99 http://smile.amazon.com/Bought-Love-Dont-Know-Jack-ebook/dp/B00KEGP65O/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1461784742&sr=1-4&keywords=you+don%27t+know+jack Edit: Hold on. Must be wrong book. This one is about Wohl Capital. Edit 2: No copies left, ML fans on rampage: http://smile.amazon.com/You-Dont-Know-Jack-Jerry/dp/0977601838/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1461785106&sr=1-1&keywords=you+don%27t+know+jack+or+jerry Edit 3: The Wohl Capital book is probably still better.
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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
Jurgis replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
Settlement negotiations? Who needs settlement negotiations. That's low energy. Listen, GSEs are very successful businesses, they employ thousands of people. Is it a crime to take these low energy profits from them? Well, maybe it is, maybe it isn’t—who knows? We gonna make GSEs great again. We gonna make Obama administration build the capital and pay for it. They say "how’d you gonna do it? How?” And I say one word: “leadership.” -
Yeah, with BATRA being crushed every day, I am starting to think if I should add a bit. And then a day later it's even cheaper...
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$30 or so used on Amazon.com Though now the price will probably go through the roof...
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That's an offer my wife cannot refuse. 8)
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Somebody offered you millions for wife and kid? Can I get a contact number? Maybe I'll sell mine. 8)
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I doubt that the wedding size or "quality" (in terms of food, glitz, whatever) has big correlation with the happiness of wedded life afterwards. So I partially agree with Dshachory. But then also as I said in other message, do whatever makes you guys happy. 8) I suggest going for the naked underwater wedding in Antarctica
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+1 Pelagic. :)
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I think this thread will jump the shark in 3... 2... In general though, I believe in tech solutions to this problem. And I think that the solutions should be emphasized by people/scientists who talk about this issue. Scaremongering never works. People just shut it out. Unfortunately that's what I mostly see. In short, we'll have singularity in ~40 years after which climate will be a solved problem. Just hang on until then. ;)
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Americans... ::) :o Supersize me baby. Have you been to an Indian wedding? Went to my first one in New Delhi last July. 200 is indeed medium compared to an Indian wedding. I was half kidding. Yeah, I am aware of Indian weddings. For me, 50 person wedding is large. But whatever makes youse guys happy. :) I'm not judging. :) Peace and love and all that. :)
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Americans... ::) :o Supersize me baby.
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Liberty company spreads vary from 1 to 1.05 and you can roundtrip gain if you sell/buy at best points. Some Liberties roundtrip more often, some less often. I swap at the extremes or so, but YMMV and all that. LILA(K) is exception and still trading at .91, which makes no sense even with liquidity explanation.
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I only look at the spending that I don't want to spend through the lens of compounding. 8) So, no, I'm not going to Omaha. I'm buying couple BRK shares instead. :P
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Swapped from LMCA to LMCK at ~4% discount. Not great, but I also added to the position and so it was possibly OK spread to swap.
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That marshmallow ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment ) you ate when you were five... coulda been a fortune when you're seventy. ;D
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Right that's the trouble with Liberties. Malone may pick the one nobody likes and do something great with it. You never know.