Jurgis

This is really funny. ;D Opens possibilities. Can I sell my cats into sex trade? 8) Will I get enough money to finance cryptokitty purchases? Since cryptokitties will go ballistic (I checked, you can shoot them from cannon or launch them in Space X), I'll make 900000% in one year. Then I can buy back my real kitties from slave trade. Sounds like a plan!!! 8)

You can always convert A to B. And without taxable event I think, but I am not an accountant/etc.

Self driving cars are awesome. But if that's "not-real-life" for you yet, then check out the collision avoidance systems that are already integrated into most of 2017-18 models ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collision_avoidance_system ).

There's a bunch of them. Search Fido or Finra http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp?part=3 (enter "Centurylink" for search) I tried to paste results, but formatting sucks.

I bought some CTL bonds. Tough to analyze the probabilities with LVLT merger, but assuming the company does not implode and muddles through or even grows, it should be OKish fixed income return. Nothing spectacular.

Cryptokitties.

I'd be interested too, though I tend to agree that 10-11% is about the most I'd expect for the CAGR of IV (and BV other than the one-off boost from the tax bill). For me, that's sufficient long term return with high certainty, and the limited downside and the potential for decent compounding are the reasons I felt it was better than cash for the long term and provided essentially similar 'dry powder' for any huge bargain in the short term. Even the last 14.25 years, with a deep recession and plenty of opportunism and big acquisitions has seen only 10.36% CAGR in Book Value (prior to any tax boost) but in an environment of low interest rates and low price inflation. I'm not complaining though - 10.36% over 14.25 years is 4.07x growth in total, which is very respectable, and repeated for another 14.25 years would exceed a 16-fold growth over 28.5 years. Dynamic already covered a lot of bases. Why would future returns from current P/B be higher than historical 10.X%? I'll add couple more headwinds and considerations - Size. It's getting more and more difficult to grow as the size increases. - Competitiveness. Both Warren and Charlie are continuously talking about moat erosion and competitiveness across the the board (AXP, COST, etc.). I'll add even KO and KHC to this. - Huge cash pile that is difficult to invest at great returns. (Contra argument: market will crash and then they will invest. Contra contra argument: see that 10.X% return even with crash in between). - Soft insurance and reinsurance markets that may not change - Elevated security prices of everything including stocks in BRK portfolio. (Contra argument: banks and AAPL may not be very expensive and may return more than 10% annualized for some time). - Even at the great recession Buffett got BRK-only prefs at ~9% coupon. Considering that a once-a-huge-crisis opportunity, why and how future opportunities be better than that (so you could get to 10+% return)? (Contra argument: float is like leverage so 9% on that is levered return for the company.)

I have no opinion about BRK price in next 6 months. Best 8)

I'm pretty sure Gates foundation is not set up as perpetual foundation and/or Buffett's donation is not intended as perpetual contribution. Pretty sure there are conditions that the money to be used within certain timeframe, so yes, they have to sell the shares. I don't remember the source, so you might have to hunt for it if you want confirmation. (Or maybe someone on CoBF will confirm or contradict the above).

Can I get an option "I don't care"? As I have said before, I am selling my BRK position the moment Warren is out (assuming stock does not crater to unreasonable discount). He is not replaceable. Splitting or not splitting won't make much difference likely. Although it's possible that holders after Warren's exit will still get OKish return.

I doubt that BRK return will be more than 10% annual for next 10 years. JMO though.

I need that macro. 8)

Cryptokitties iz da safist store ov mieuw: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/meet-cryptokitties-the-new-digital-beanie-babies-selling-for-100k.html All your bitcoinz are belong to catz! 8)

FYI, the predictions just went snow from 9am on Saturday. Have fun and stay safe.

This isn't good. But it's also a news story that will happen with any natural disaster and any navigation app/device. The journalist disses Waze, but Waze can be adjusted faster than dedicated nav devices like Garmin (remember these?). I somewhat doubt that majority of car-integrated nav apps were adjusted to avoid fire-closed streets either (if they are updated/updatable at all). Edit: BTW, I'm pretty sure there were also situations where Waze redirected traffic in good ways away from fire and standstill traffic. Just not in that article...

This is a Biblical choice... 8) Oh, Jain, not Cain...

If I knew that RE is going compound at 12% going forward 5-10 years, I'd buy tons of it. I don't think there are (m)any opportunities in current market that offer 12% going forward. (IMO neither BRK nor FFH do; 12% is reachable for both just far from certain). I doubt that RE (or AXS) can do 12% going forward either. I think that (re)insurance is still soft and gonna remain soft. Plus fixed income returns are crappy.

Yes, I take Magnesium Citrate too. More for blood pressure normalization though. I have allergies mostly not up to asthma level though. I don't think I saw any change/improvement with Vit D/Magnesium. Edit/note: I possibly take lower doses than other people take, so ./shrug.

I am taking Vitamin D ~7000 a week (5K some brand from Amazon + 2K Trader Joe's brand). I have a friend (*wink wink*) who had depression symptoms and taking Vitamin D got rid of them totally. So, don't self-diagnose since depression is serious thing, but also possibly take Vitamin D, especially if blood tests show deficiency. One possible negative side effect: if you are prone to kidney stones, excessive Vitamin D may have negative effect ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidney_stone_disease ). I used to take 10K a week, reduced to 7K.

Looks like a good book, Gio.

TSLA should issue shares. Elon made a mistake by not having supervoting share class and I think that's what's stopping him from issuing shares. I still think he should but /shrug.

The fee has been inconsistent before. Sometimes it was on, sometimes not.

By the time tech is advanced enough for interstellar travel, there won't be organic humans. We will be uploaded, replaced by manufactured bodies if needed, etc. The age of organic humans is close to the end, give or take 100 years or so, possibly less. Sending current organic lifeforms into space is a folly. Space is totally inhospitable for humans. The only reason we send humans to space right now is (1) we cannot transfer ourselves into non-organic bodies yet; (2) we don't have sufficiently smart AI to send it instead of sending us. Either (1) or (2) or both will be solved within 50 years ... if we don't blow up ourselves in the meantime. This is one reason Elon's Mars colonization plan is a bit quixotic. By the time we have good enough tech to send human colony safely to Mars and sustain it there, we will be close or past not needing to send organic human colony at all. There's a margin of time where organic human colony may exist, but it's very short period.

That's why all advanced civilizations travel as neutrinos. 8)

Haven't read the book yet. Her TED talk at Google talk at: