Gregmal

I was doing some more reading on this, and amused myself a little following the timeline and sentiment shifts. You would almost certainly believe here, that even if Tesla goes to $4000, the smart money fee suckers would still say Cathie Wood was wrong and that they, and their research was right. Very amusing.

@Cigarbutt- definitely interesting. This was around 2010 and in Quebec, yea? I dont doubt that happens...we all know if free healthcare in the US takes over costs will be completely ignored! All kidding and politics aside, I would more so think moderately scaling out available is what occurs. Most employers dont offer coverage, but that is changing. And I don't know if "stigma" is the right word, although maybe, but its definitely not an open subject of discussion for people here. Taboo, perhaps. Or maybe just uncomfortable. Then theres also the whacky religious folks who hate it as well. The markets in Europe and Asia seem to be way ahead of the US; hard to discern what this actually implies, but I would think we do have some catching up to do with the world given our societal trends.

Theres a few. VITR is a monster and the undisputed king but you're paying a high price for that. You've got a few others like Virtus and Jinxin but my favorite is HTL which is much more off the radar and has what appears to be enough hair to keep most folks away. But Ive found management to be good stewards of capital, disciplined with acquisitions, and not terrible in choosing how and when to raise capital. PGNY I like too but not at 10x sales for what is ultimately middleman work. I'd at least be waiting until lockup to consider touching that, even if its part of a basket approach.

With regard to genetic deficiencies in the IVF process, I have been told that more recently, given the advances in accessibility, couples are being sold the option to perform genetic testing on embryos prior to selection. While it is old news that one can choose the gender of their child, now having the ability to select the healthiest of the harvest further makes this something that potentially appeals to a wider audience. The mainstream acceptability is also still incredibly low. No one ever wonders why so many celebrities have twins at what seems like a significantly greater rate than normal folks? Or how wealthier folks tend to conceive later on? IVF...so as this starts becoming more acceptable to talk about, and accessible from the healthcare standpoint(Starbucks for instance covers this for part time workers now!) I think it is an inevitable growth arena. From there, it will merely become a decision, rather than an embarassing subject and a financial hardship, and when people are given the choice between "trying" blindfolded and leaving the health of their baby to chance, VS, having the entire process planned; no different than a vacation and the health more or less assured- I think I can see where it leads.

If anyone has followed whats gone down the past week or so, I think its incredibly important to notice what has happened with the major cryptos. This was one of the first times I noticed a VERY direct response via price action, responding to macro events, similar to gold, treasuries, and other safe haven instruments. Often, for things to be effective, they have to be accepted within the context of certain uses. If nothing else, I found this unmistakable correlation to be somewhat landmark. Now of course we can get back to debating the intrinsic value of voodoo currency...

Yup, my brothers wife is in her late 20's at EY and its always thought but not loudly spoken how she either won't be able to have a healthy pregnancy or if she does, will have issues. 15 hour work days, eats very little, constant stress/anxiety/deadlines, always traveling... bad recipe. Separately, IVF is one of the few areas that IMO are immune from the general "attack healthcare" agenda of politicians and insurance companies. Basically, poor people with fertility issues deserve to have babies to is my way to make money off socialism.

Thanks John, and yes Happy New Year as well. I like this business on the surface and hope to dive in more in the coming weeks as time permits. My challenge with companies outside of the US is often grasping their place in the food chain(no pun intended), the brand recognition/value in their markets, and ultimately the moat. Also kind of grasping what the market perception/sentiment is as well. Bring up McDonalds, Wendy's and Chipotle and instantaneously, years worth of "existing" as a human and consumer registers a rough starting point in my assessment of the business. Same with Walmart, Macy's and Dick's. As an American, "Schouw & Co" triggers a blank stare lol. But this is one of the areas as an investor I hope to improve. There are certainly great companies outside of North America that I am missing.

Someone told me a joke a while ago that I found simple but hilarious... Poor people in America live in NYC and SF....

IVF

100% AML CYA issue and will only get worse. It also may not even be specific to IBKR, although that above method of handling seems Draconian.

Tesla as an investment, reminds me of an exercise I took part in, in grade school. The teacher told us we had a test the next week. Everyone did their thing and the next week, the teacher distributes the test paper. Its a couple pages and has tons of questions. But at the top, below the section where you write your name, under "instructions" it says "Do not answer any of the questions, put your pencils down, and wait until the 20 minutes of test time is up". Well, many of the "smart" kids, who spent great amounts of time studying, zipped through the test, put their pencils down, and then waited for the allotted time to conclude. After the teacher then explained the exercise and failed anyone who didn't follow directions...the looks were priceless. I of course, failed the test. But I learned a very valuable lesson. The three things that would have saved me where 1) paying attention to the entire picture in front of me, 2) simply paying attention to the behavior of others and 3) sometimes the correct move is doing nothing....

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015 :-* edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation modelTM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?" But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make. OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented? I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business. But outside of that...

Elon should use the shares to buy a real car company like FCAU or GM.

And....another one.

This is in eastern Colorado and not really in an area relevant to Pure Cycle's operations. The did, some time ago, own Arkansas River/Fort Lyon Canal assets and were debating potentially building a pipeline to transfer water to their core markets near Denver, but ultimately decided against that and sold of those interests maybe 5 years ago or so. I would think in fact that a big piece not touched on in that article is the private land and water sales being done in that area for the purpose of moving the water to the Front Range.

One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

Tremendous quarter, some great details on the call as well https://seekingalpha.com/news/3530242-pure-cycle-reports-q1-results

Gregmal - can you expand on Hilltop / RBC / Axos...I'm curious how you're using these institutions as I don't see those discussed often. I'm also not sure if you are able to open accounts directly with those firms, or whether you need something like an "introducing broker" - I can't say I'm familiar with that process other than I've heard the term (not sure if I'm using it 100% correctly here). Are there specific instances in which you use each of these? Are these cost effective options for an individual investor? (I understand it probably depends on the type of trading, but curious to hear any further thoughts you can share) Theres a couple ways to go. For those you would either need a direct clearing arrangement, or an introducing broker. It is indeed largely dependent upon your needs. The biggest advantage is that if one gives you a hard time or presents problems, you have backups. But Ive found it helpful because each can provide their own benefits. Pricing is typically negotiated. You're probably paying anywhere from $5-$45 per trade. Margin rates are in between what you'd pay at IB and what you'd pay at a Fidelity. The main differences and areas of use Ive found relates to things like what types of accounts you have, if you manage money for others- where the individual with the account resides, the types of securities you can buy/sell and/or transfer in, and purchasing ability, ie, some of these firms you can buy up to, lets say, $500k in stock without a penny in available funds, and you'll have 5 business days to fund it- good for unexpected opportunities. Axos for instance, you can own anything under the sun and margin pretty much anything under the sun. Although regulators have been giving them some issues lately. Hilltop is friendly to foreign investors and Canadian investors, whereas many firms, including ironically enough, RBC, will not touch non-retirement Canadian accounts because of jurisdictional burdens with the provinces. RBC Ive found is generally good enough at everything but the best at nothing. If you are someone who heavily invests in specific types of arcane securities or securities the regulators would flag, ie low volume, OTC, micro cap, there is probably a big advantage to using these types of firms and paying the extra few bucks. If you are just buying Apple and Google, its not as necessary and you're probably better off with traditional names.

I am not sure I fully understand the specific issue relating to Interactive; I have accounts there are have had my share of inconveniences, but not relating to this. Typically however, it would appear this to be more an issue relating to the security, vs the amount owned. I use IBKR, Hilltop, Fidelity, RBC, and Axos. All have their own quirks and inconvenient features. At the end of the day it always comes back to cover your ass regulatory bullshit. And the two biggest triggers are penny stocks(sub $10 shares occasionally and definitely anything under $5)/OTC positions, and AML. I think I mentioned in a previous thread, but even Fidelity would not transfer in(from an outside firm) shares in LAACZ and HTL. Two companies that are hardly "high risk" but when judged by their covers, fit the profile. I do believe there is a high correlation between industry wide fee reduction, and lack of risk a firm in willing to take. The motto in the biz used to be that paying regulatory fines was just a cost of doing business. But as fees get driven down I'd imagine the number of favors firms are willing to do for clients contracts, and the degree to which they are willing to dedicate resources to potential compliance matters, dwindles. As such, they just throw many of these issues on the compliance "lists". Which just inconvenience the fuck out of us. Now its our "cost of doing business".

Its funny you mention tech, but I was looking through some stuff over the weekend and just continued to be amazed at truly how much market cap some of the tech companies have. Not just the Googles and the Amazon's or Saleforces... not even the top 10-20 per say. I am hardly a tech investor, at all. But when looking at, say, ADSK, SPLK, TWLO, WDAY...thats 4 companies and well over $100B in market cap! And I'd wager 9/10 everyday Americans dont even know what they are, and probably even a big number of investors couldn't give you all that great of an answer on what each one does and how it differs from the next tech co. But dont stop there, you can easily continue to find more... ADBE, VMW, NOW... there another quarter trillion... Its utterly remarkable.

From afar, it seems a combination of, on average, lower quality companies compared to S&P 500 as some have mentioned, lower interest in equities from the average European(possibly because of a greater reliance of socialist programs to subsidize ones retirement), and probably also something to do with the financial system/banks there being a mess. Negative rates are probably also a factor. I know of a surprising number of EU investors who look at US Treasuries and CDs as gold mines and its solely because of the risk free comparable over there. Some still seem to do ok, again showing its a game of skill. I've found few better at it here than John Hjorth. Every once in a while whipping out a stud of a stock pick plucked from his neck of the woods. But otherwise, its tough hunting it seems.

Bought a little more GRIF. If nothing more, because the divergence of GRIF's value relative to the general market melt up, and the lack of SWAN stocks currently available.

I think risk adjusted return is much more important for comparison than absolute return over one year. I could have levered up and gone 120% long SPY and sold puts on the SPY and generated "alpha" but I took on considerable risk. Maybe somebody generated 20% but had 30% in cash or hedged. Only times I hear "risk adjusted return" is when a money manager justifies his lackluster performance due to holding too much cash. They never mention this when the performance is the other way around. Yup lol. Holding cash through 2019 was the WRONG move. Pretty black and white. Not really an honest way to rationalize it.

This stuff isn't uncommon, in fact it happens all the time. Theres plenty of threads here where there are good laughs to be had due to this type of behavior. For whatever reason, people are often emboldened by load mouth short sellers. No need to get upset by it; their stupidity creates opportunity. Just make sure you avoid the landmine, if indeed there is one. Tesla- its been a fraud since $400 per share ago and it'll be any day that Elon gets indicted and the company gets shut out of the capital markets...(want a REALLY, REALLY good laugh, go read the most recent TSLA VIC writeup by the bitter short who now even manages to get it hilariously wrong taking NO POSITION!) MDXG- the 8K heard round the world at $1.25 was "definitely" the death knell. Burford- they loved it at 3x book and wanted no part at 1x. Everyone knew it was a fraud but waited til after MW to proclaim it(except Schwab), even though MW provided nothing new Theres plenty more, but those are just the first few that came to mind. Quite amusing.

Shorted some PLUG. Mainly because Ive got a bearish itch and many of the other candidates are impulsive and valuation based shorts. So, because Unilife is no longer with us, PLUG becomes the de facto, I just need to short some piece of shit eventual 0 outlet.