Gregmal

Well, now that I have these data points and various tidbits of analysis I can start making money in the stock market!

Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner.

It's the opposite of what you're implying. MA is surrounded by 4 states where recreational use is still illegal. Purchasing illegally is much more difficult than transporting illegally via ground transport. Hence, a lot of people from the neighboring states drive to MA to make their purchases where they can get high-quality flower without the stress of worrying about getting ripped off or arrested. The value proposition is quite strong, especially for the power users. To this note, I'd add that the closest dispensary to NY is a company called Theory Wellness. As of September roughly 40% of their customers are from out of state with almost 3/4 of those being from NY. Granted this place is 20 minutes from the border, but it supports the idea that people will travel for a better product. The shit sold illegally is not nearly the same quality. As for legalization, once those states become fair game for recreational....where do you think they source their product from? Most likely existing facilities while local ones start a build out. Given the Herculean task permitting and approvals can be, it is likely an opportunity for an existing operation, with knowledge of this process, to jump on in.

Boom. Just like that. Another round trip from high $50's/low $60's to high $60's/low $70's. Not bad for like, the worlds worst retailer with shitty rural locations..... Definitely outperformed the fuck out of my "value investments" the past couple weeks....

Thats another good point. $0 commissions and 3% margin rates....Seems look a really good or really bad environment, entirely dependent upon one's trading abilities I suppose.

Ive been flirting with some $20 calls. Looks like a good way to juice any further M&A developments.

From personal experience, I'll give the following example. I smoked in high school and college. Since then I've stopped completely, with occasional exceptions. I'd often pick up a pack of Marlboro's with a 6 pack before heading out on a fishing trip for instance. At one point I switched to vaping products which worked for a while. But I never really cared for it and once we started seeing all the noise about unknown issues with vaping, it's straight back to Marlboro's. Maybe the occasional tin as well. But that's my point and what I've noticed people saying at the various dispensaries. People need a fix. The delivery method of that can change. But its not like eating a cookie vs inhaling where there is a noted difference that may cross lines for some folks. Vaping is smoking and a ban on one just switches people over the the next category. Ironically for AYR, its highest margin product. This further vibes with Bobby Burleson's latest notes as well(an analyst who covers the space).

This is absolutely the wrong way to think about it. If you don't have a stop loss, then you are risking 100% of the capital to make 11%. It could make you feel good but you have to be right 9 out of 10 times just to break even. Sooner or later your portfolio will be filled with failed BACs, each down 50%-90%, and no cash in your portfolio. (Who would have thunk of GE going down that much last year?) You can do technical analysis and trading instead of FA, and it works, but it definitely won't work in the way you described it. And in that case he'll have plenty in common with all the buy and hold value investors who would inevitably ride BAC to 0 as well...

Another strategy based on buying a starter position in a quality company perhaps at prices slightly higher than one would like and then either making some quick money or then build into it at lower prices. Seems like a way to make money. Some people don't like to make money I guess

Solely on principal, I have a hard time reconciling companies being forced to allow people to use their products in certain ways. Isn't it simple enough. If you don't like it, dont use it? I have never had a Facebook though so maybe I'm just out of touch.

What do you mean? There is a Cannabis SPAC 2 that I believe is also sponsored by Sandelman Partners. But the referent to SPAC here doesn't "mean" anything anymore and they do not have cash on the sidelines that has to be spent. I "" mean because as Ive said I think anything who s looking at this does need to understand SPAC's and kind of feel out their tolerance for basically betting against some very stacked odds if you look at things in the context of a vacuum and that almost all SPAC's post deal, are junk. These guys have a nice chunk of cash, maybe $30M or so(Im lazy and not checking right now) on the balance sheet. But the big thing is the the go forward guidance and executing. You can be fearful of where the bones are buried but I view this as much safer for the simple reason that they didn't just buy one business, they bought 5 that all kind of have synergies. Additionally, much like a liquor license, just having it is where the value is. Shady, sketchy shit with the previous owners or not, they have 1/3 of the MA licenses for wholesale...Thats big.

I don’t disagree with all the points raised; there is certainly an element of risk here. But I think this setup is inherently different from say, acquiring an oil company with stated reserves or a tech company with certain billings. They’ve basically acquired conpanies on a strategic basis and regardless of the operatings, have ONE OF THREE licenses to wholesale cultivate in one of the states with the highest per pound rates. Give this opportunity to people who know how to operate a business and put them up against what are at best mom and pop, and at worst, a bunch of dopers...and I think they do well.

In addition, the base rate for Success with SPAC vehicles is terrible. A large part of the premise seems to be that a cannabis roll up makes a lot of sense. The other side of the coin is that a SPAC is predicated on making lots of acquisitions. Are cannabis company owners really the best people to be buying businesses from? If the average acquisition is value destructive, then you factor in the average cannabis store owner/grower as lower quality than your typical business owner, it could be a much riskier area to be buying businesses. I don't mean to be rude to any tokers out there, but it seems like a reasonable assumption. Nothing wrong with lighting one up. 8^) So selling weed to dopers is a bad business? Wholesale will be the main driver. They've got recreational licenses pending and should be going live maybe Q2-3 2020, but in the meantime these small business are being fast tracked and need to have product. AYR holds one of the 3 wholesale licenses in MA and easily has the funding to continue capacity increases. Right now they are only pumping out less than 20% of their permitted capacity.... do the math. It seems people are forgetting that legalized marijuana is in its infancy. This shit literally just became legal so there is a development cycle and period of time in which one would expect things to ramp. Its not just, boom, legal, now we're going to 10,000 lbs a month from zero...Regulatory burdens still exist. Permitting and whatnot still takes time. Having experienced and financially savvy operators handling this certainly seems more desirable than tapping Harold and Kumar...

All of AYR's acquired businesses were profitable in 2018 on a pro forma basis.... Further, wholesale buildout requires spending a bit(not a ton IMO) of money that then balloons later out. The Sira wholesale ops will go from 10% or so of total revenue to almost 40% in less than two years. This is helped twofold by the additional Capex, plus increasing recreational usage+licenses. Massachusetts is a very unique revenue source and will likely be the main driver of growth as these guys already have about 65% of the licensed businesses and are the only ones capable of keeping up with demand. Channel checks today further indicated that Massechsuets statewide vaping ban is just pushing people into other products which is good for AYR. This is also pushing the price per pound higher, now in many areas north of $3000...They already had about 45% margins at $2700. Something being "something" really isn't a good reason to invest or not invest. Just something(in this case) to heed. Stupid retail investors roll the dice on spacs(I originally said garbage spacs but then decided to just say spac because I agree, there is an implicit understanding that they are typically inherent garbage) and then typically throw in the towels when it appears they won't get rich quick; informed investors almost universally dismiss them without even giving a look. Is it possible that somewhere there is an opportunity here? Maybe. But it's an "xyz" to me so I won't invest is just classic laziness. In this case, and because of both legal and financing logistics, one could easily argue that the SPAC is the perfect vehicle for a marijuana rollup.

So sales are dropping, the corrupt union is costing the company billions, and the share price is a hair from the IPO price again. Outside of Radman who's loving his value investor street cred here, is there any argument Barra is the right person for the job anymore? She's not delivering on anything and one we're one poor earnings away from $30 and being in Ford territory. Additionally, I saw a note the other week I believe for Adam Jonas about the Waymo valuation being substantially scaled back. Not that Cruise was ever that lofty, but if the bubble for those types of companies is deflating, the window to IPO Cruise is closing...fun times being a GM bagholder.

Picked up a few CTO and have been filled on 5 GRIF. Lucky me!

Are you implying you actually had a job?!

I think the buyback is just a simple message to the market that they are serious about delivering for shareholders, and that they believe the stock is very cheap. If not there is no reason to go ahead with one this early or make further comment about how they'd do a much larger one if allowed. Granted Sandelman got a nice deal on his shares, but given his ownership and the potential here I think everything is very much aligned. There arent really too many times you see a setup like this. It isn't crazy to connect the dots to a $60-$70 stock several years out if a few things go their way.

Sanjeev its not just value investing that's the issue though...it's the investing! Maybe I'm gifted, IDK. But it really doesn't take long to size up a public company and determine if it's worth considering an investment. Even average investors should be able to look at something and kind of figure out what it's universe of outcomes will be, with a certain degree of accuracy. Which is why its just baffling when I look at some of the decisions these guys have made over the years. Like how many examples of broken tech companies(let alone gadget companies) do you need to see(cough Palm) to know that Blackberry was a lousy investment? Is there anything really that jumps out and screams "I need to own me some Resolute Forst Products?". I get they may be cigar butts, or turn arounds or whatever; the textbook "value investor" stocks...But these are just downright shitty businesses, with high risk and rather static reward(especially if you start looking at the entry points these guys had). So it's not just "value investing is out of favor"...one really needs to question the judgment being used. I criticize some of the BRK investment performance, but at least they almost exclusively buy high quality companies/businesses...Prem is buying garbage.

Not so surprising ending to a story who's moral is, this is what happens when the bear case keeps slapping you in the face but you choose to keep a positive attitude...

Don't like it? Dont click on it. Real Simple. Dont want to have to scroll through posts??? God help you when it actually comes to scrolling through something laborious like an SEC filing....much more tedious than just dragging the mouse down and ever so slightly moving your eyes...

Fixed!

Bought some more AYR. Here's hoping this bitch finally bottomed...

This was mentioned in another thread but deserves its own topic. Really great piece on the incredible events that took place shortly after the GFC. Really highlights why investors need to be flexible and open to making money in whatever setup presents itself rather than just remaining married to one strategy or philosophy. Been a fan of Dan David for sometime but really didn't know the full story behind his involvement here. My only surprise was that there wasn't any mentioning of Benjamin Wey who was quite possibly a bigger player than anyone mentioned in the documentary.

I admittedly have a spending problem when it comes to food. It would be even worser if I didn't have the 6% back at grocery stores Amex. But as I remain futile in curbing this habit, I at least try to abstract some value from it time to time in my observations and frequent interactions. This weekend Ive been to Kings, Wegman's, Stop N Shop, and Shop Rite... The shelf space for plant based products vs a month ago has increased on average nearly 6 fold. A month ago it was almost exclusively Beyond products(the sausages by the way apparently dont sell very well. Which is understandable considering they look like my 3 year old's fake plastic play food). Now Beyond has the same self space, but the shelf has expanded and Ive seen at least a half dozen competitors ranging from Litelife, Pure, Impossible, and a few others that escape me at the moment. All, are at least 10-15% cheaper than Beyond. Impossible just launched at select stores. The Wegman's I visited had 4, 15 cu ft deep freezers filled with the Impossible bricks. They then had separately, one standard 2 door Hillphoenix fridge; half was Impossible and the other half 4 other brands including Beyond. The market is being flooded and competition is coming from everywhere. Much different than a month+ ago. If commercial sales will save this, I implore anyone to go find out what kind of sales numbers you need to remain a fixture of the McDonald's menu... From a fundamental and technical perspective, this to me continues to be a mirror imagine of BETRxTLRY...